Landslide susceptibility mapping is a crucial tool for disaster prevention and management.The performance of conventional data-driven model is greatly influenced by the quality of the samples data.The random selection...Landslide susceptibility mapping is a crucial tool for disaster prevention and management.The performance of conventional data-driven model is greatly influenced by the quality of the samples data.The random selection of negative samples results in the lack of interpretability throughout the assessment process.To address this limitation and construct a high-quality negative samples database,this study introduces a physics-informed machine learning approach,combining the random forest model with Scoops 3D,to optimize the negative samples selection strategy and assess the landslide susceptibility of the study area.The Scoops 3D is employed to determine the factor of safety value leveraging Bishop’s simplified method.Instead of conventional random selection,negative samples are extracted from the areas with a high factor of safety value.Subsequently,the results of conventional random forest model and physics-informed data-driven model are analyzed and discussed,focusing on model performance and prediction uncertainty.In comparison to conventional methods,the physics-informed model,set with a safety area threshold of 3,demonstrates a noteworthy improvement in the mean AUC value by 36.7%,coupled with a reduced prediction uncertainty.It is evident that the determination of the safety area threshold exerts an impact on both prediction uncertainty and model performance.展开更多
The procedure of supply chain development is the process of continuously congregating knowledge and transforming knowledge.First,the precondition of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain is narrated.Then t...The procedure of supply chain development is the process of continuously congregating knowledge and transforming knowledge.First,the precondition of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain is narrated.Then the characteristics of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain are analyzed,including complexity,accumulating and evolving process,and the cooperation of members and network integration.Due to the characteristics of multi-factors and uncertainties of the supply chain system,the fuzzy multi-attribution group decision-making model is introduced to solve the involved problem of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain.After elaborating on steps of using the fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making(MADM)model,the procedure of decision making for synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain is explained from an example in the application of a fuzzy MADM model.The fuzzy MADM model,which amalgamates intuition and resolution decision-making can effectively improve the rationality of decision-making for synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain.展开更多
With the aim of drawing valuable lessons for the management and planning of similar business transformation initiatives, this paper critically evaluates a change project at an organization in South Africa, from three ...With the aim of drawing valuable lessons for the management and planning of similar business transformation initiatives, this paper critically evaluates a change project at an organization in South Africa, from three inter-woven dimensions： creating the climate for change, engaging and enabling the organization, and sustaining change. Firstly, a key achievement demonstrates that attempts to create a conducive climate for change should recognize that the unit of change in any organization is, ultimately, the individual. Levers for such initiatives should navigate the macro-organizational change narrative and translate change generalities into specific individual actions and behaviors. Secondly, learning from an implementation gap, similar efforts would gain better traction in engagement and empowerment by leveraging on an influential cross-functional team made up of enthusiastic supporters of the required change, to foster ownership and to embrace change across the organization. Key characteristics that should be represented on the team include leadership skills, expertise, credibility, effective communication, and a sense of urgency. Thirdly, in terms of sustaining change, twin lessons surge to the fore. On a positive note, by progressing its values-set into an annual staff award, there is a pointer to the potential of innovatively encouraging and rewarding employees to live the value qualities. And, on the flip side, a need is underscore of the critical role of seamless executive leadership, providing ongoing co-creating windows for instilling positive attitudes and creating synergies among related strategic initiatives.展开更多
Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used t...Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.展开更多
Following the change of objectives in China＇s public policy on intellectual property and the continuous increase in that policy＇s range of adjustment and number of policy input sources, the focus of policy making sh...Following the change of objectives in China＇s public policy on intellectual property and the continuous increase in that policy＇s range of adjustment and number of policy input sources, the focus of policy making should be shifted to perfecting the policy system and its operating mechanism. However, the present operating model of technology transfer policy still adheres to the conventional emphasis on the effectiveness of individual policies. Conflicts between policies cancel out efficiency, leading to internal friction which may make the system as a whole work less effective. This paper applies the principle of synergetics to the construction and operation of the public policy system. On the basis of the high efficiency and practical value of synergistic operating mechanisms, we put forward concrete measures for establishing a synergistic operating mechanism for Chinese technology transfer policy.展开更多
Agricultural heritage has potential significance far beyond its common representation as the ＂traditional＂ system of ＂traditional peoples＂.The U.N.Food and Agricultural Organization＇s Globally Important Agricultu...Agricultural heritage has potential significance far beyond its common representation as the ＂traditional＂ system of ＂traditional peoples＂.The U.N.Food and Agricultural Organization＇s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems（GIAHS） program is an important designation that treats heritage agro-ecosystems as living systems,rather than cultural relics.In order for the GIAHS designation to achieve its full potential,however,the role of human knowledge within the continuous cultural and ecological evolution of GIAHS requires much closer examination and appreciation.This paper explores the limits of contemporary nature and cultural conservation,and draws on a coevolutionary theoretical framework in order to better conceptualize the dynamism of such complex agro-ecological systems.In such a view,GIAHS can be seen as evolving systems of sustainable agriculture of great potentail relevance to contemporary society-environment challenges,rather than as relics of the past.展开更多
基金Project(G2022165004L)supported by the High-end Foreign Expert Introduction Program,ChinaProject(2021XM3008)supported by the Special Foundation of Postdoctoral Support Program,Chongqing,China+1 种基金Project(2018-ZL-01)supported by the Sichuan Transportation Science and Technology Project,ChinaProject(HZ2021001)supported by the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,China。
文摘Landslide susceptibility mapping is a crucial tool for disaster prevention and management.The performance of conventional data-driven model is greatly influenced by the quality of the samples data.The random selection of negative samples results in the lack of interpretability throughout the assessment process.To address this limitation and construct a high-quality negative samples database,this study introduces a physics-informed machine learning approach,combining the random forest model with Scoops 3D,to optimize the negative samples selection strategy and assess the landslide susceptibility of the study area.The Scoops 3D is employed to determine the factor of safety value leveraging Bishop’s simplified method.Instead of conventional random selection,negative samples are extracted from the areas with a high factor of safety value.Subsequently,the results of conventional random forest model and physics-informed data-driven model are analyzed and discussed,focusing on model performance and prediction uncertainty.In comparison to conventional methods,the physics-informed model,set with a safety area threshold of 3,demonstrates a noteworthy improvement in the mean AUC value by 36.7%,coupled with a reduced prediction uncertainty.It is evident that the determination of the safety area threshold exerts an impact on both prediction uncertainty and model performance.
基金The National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2006BAH02A06)
文摘The procedure of supply chain development is the process of continuously congregating knowledge and transforming knowledge.First,the precondition of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain is narrated.Then the characteristics of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain are analyzed,including complexity,accumulating and evolving process,and the cooperation of members and network integration.Due to the characteristics of multi-factors and uncertainties of the supply chain system,the fuzzy multi-attribution group decision-making model is introduced to solve the involved problem of synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain.After elaborating on steps of using the fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making(MADM)model,the procedure of decision making for synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain is explained from an example in the application of a fuzzy MADM model.The fuzzy MADM model,which amalgamates intuition and resolution decision-making can effectively improve the rationality of decision-making for synergic knowledge innovation in the supply chain.
文摘With the aim of drawing valuable lessons for the management and planning of similar business transformation initiatives, this paper critically evaluates a change project at an organization in South Africa, from three inter-woven dimensions： creating the climate for change, engaging and enabling the organization, and sustaining change. Firstly, a key achievement demonstrates that attempts to create a conducive climate for change should recognize that the unit of change in any organization is, ultimately, the individual. Levers for such initiatives should navigate the macro-organizational change narrative and translate change generalities into specific individual actions and behaviors. Secondly, learning from an implementation gap, similar efforts would gain better traction in engagement and empowerment by leveraging on an influential cross-functional team made up of enthusiastic supporters of the required change, to foster ownership and to embrace change across the organization. Key characteristics that should be represented on the team include leadership skills, expertise, credibility, effective communication, and a sense of urgency. Thirdly, in terms of sustaining change, twin lessons surge to the fore. On a positive note, by progressing its values-set into an annual staff award, there is a pointer to the potential of innovatively encouraging and rewarding employees to live the value qualities. And, on the flip side, a need is underscore of the critical role of seamless executive leadership, providing ongoing co-creating windows for instilling positive attitudes and creating synergies among related strategic initiatives.
基金Projects(70671039,71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QX44,09QX68) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.
基金the phased result of a key research project sponsored by the National Social Sciences Fund (No.:08@zh003)
文摘Following the change of objectives in China＇s public policy on intellectual property and the continuous increase in that policy＇s range of adjustment and number of policy input sources, the focus of policy making should be shifted to perfecting the policy system and its operating mechanism. However, the present operating model of technology transfer policy still adheres to the conventional emphasis on the effectiveness of individual policies. Conflicts between policies cancel out efficiency, leading to internal friction which may make the system as a whole work less effective. This paper applies the principle of synergetics to the construction and operation of the public policy system. On the basis of the high efficiency and practical value of synergistic operating mechanisms, we put forward concrete measures for establishing a synergistic operating mechanism for Chinese technology transfer policy.
基金D.Niles in Hangzhou,China at the National Tea Research Institute on 2 November 2015 under the title “GIAHS knowledge:Linking tangible and intangible elements of GIAHS sites”
文摘Agricultural heritage has potential significance far beyond its common representation as the ＂traditional＂ system of ＂traditional peoples＂.The U.N.Food and Agricultural Organization＇s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems（GIAHS） program is an important designation that treats heritage agro-ecosystems as living systems,rather than cultural relics.In order for the GIAHS designation to achieve its full potential,however,the role of human knowledge within the continuous cultural and ecological evolution of GIAHS requires much closer examination and appreciation.This paper explores the limits of contemporary nature and cultural conservation,and draws on a coevolutionary theoretical framework in order to better conceptualize the dynamism of such complex agro-ecological systems.In such a view,GIAHS can be seen as evolving systems of sustainable agriculture of great potentail relevance to contemporary society-environment challenges,rather than as relics of the past.
