Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered ...Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.展开更多
The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has...The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.展开更多
We set forth the macroeconomics evaluation of floods （MEF） model, a new model to assess and evaluate the impact of floods on GNP growth. This model points to a new, more concrete approach to measure the economic imp...We set forth the macroeconomics evaluation of floods （MEF） model, a new model to assess and evaluate the impact of floods on GNP growth. This model points to a new, more concrete approach to measure the economic impact of floods. Up to now, the measurement has been subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The main contribution of the model is to significantly reduce this uncertainty by mea- suring the impact with four well-defined, economically intuitive indicators. To illuminate and demonstrate its promise, we employ the model to evaluate and analyze the impact of two major floods on the economy of the People＇s Republic of China. Our MEF-model analysis indicates that the floods of Zhangshu and Jiangxi in 2010 caused greater economic damage than the floods of Central South China in 1931. Going forward, MEF-model simulations are a valuable tool for estimating the effect of potential future floods in the PRC and elsewhere.展开更多
基金funded by the Marine Public Welfare Pro-ject of China (Nos. 200705029, 200805080)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2002CB412406)SOA-funded Program (No. 908-02-04-03)
文摘Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.
文摘The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.
文摘We set forth the macroeconomics evaluation of floods （MEF） model, a new model to assess and evaluate the impact of floods on GNP growth. This model points to a new, more concrete approach to measure the economic impact of floods. Up to now, the measurement has been subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The main contribution of the model is to significantly reduce this uncertainty by mea- suring the impact with four well-defined, economically intuitive indicators. To illuminate and demonstrate its promise, we employ the model to evaluate and analyze the impact of two major floods on the economy of the People＇s Republic of China. Our MEF-model analysis indicates that the floods of Zhangshu and Jiangxi in 2010 caused greater economic damage than the floods of Central South China in 1931. Going forward, MEF-model simulations are a valuable tool for estimating the effect of potential future floods in the PRC and elsewhere.
