This paper compares the models in Predicting the VaR of stock price indexes in China. Our results indicate that the normal model usually underestimate the VaR when given probability is 0 01 or 0 02,and the weighted no...This paper compares the models in Predicting the VaR of stock price indexes in China. Our results indicate that the normal model usually underestimate the VaR when given probability is 0 01 or 0 02,and the weighted normal model usually overestimate the VaR when given probability is 0 04 or 0 05. The historical simulating model and Logistic distribution model are superior to normal model and to weighted nomal model in predicting the VaR.展开更多
In this paper,we study the nonparametric estimation of the second infinitesimal moment by using the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) approach of the underlying jump diffusion model.We establish strong consistency and ...In this paper,we study the nonparametric estimation of the second infinitesimal moment by using the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) approach of the underlying jump diffusion model.We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimate of the second infinitesimal moment of continuous time models using the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson estimator to the true function.展开更多
文摘This paper compares the models in Predicting the VaR of stock price indexes in China. Our results indicate that the normal model usually underestimate the VaR when given probability is 0 01 or 0 02,and the weighted normal model usually overestimate the VaR when given probability is 0 04 or 0 05. The historical simulating model and Logistic distribution model are superior to normal model and to weighted nomal model in predicting the VaR.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10871177,11071213)Research Fund for the Doctor Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No.20090101110020)
文摘In this paper,we study the nonparametric estimation of the second infinitesimal moment by using the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) approach of the underlying jump diffusion model.We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimate of the second infinitesimal moment of continuous time models using the reweighted Nadaraya-Watson estimator to the true function.
