[Objective] The study aimed to compare several statistical analysis models for estimating the sugarcane （Saccharum spp.） genotypic stability. [Method] The data of sugarcane regional trials in Guangdong, in 2009 was ...[Objective] The study aimed to compare several statistical analysis models for estimating the sugarcane （Saccharum spp.） genotypic stability. [Method] The data of sugarcane regional trials in Guangdong, in 2009 was analyzed by three models respectively： Finlay and Wilkinson model： the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction （AMMI） model and linear regression-principal components analysis （LR- PCA） model, so as to compare the models. [Result] The Finlay and Wilkinson model was easier, but the analysis of the other two models was more comprehensive, and there was a bit difference between the additive main effects and multiplicative inter- action （AMMI） model and linear regression-principal components analysis （LR-PCA） model. [Conclusion] In practice, while the proper statistical method was usually con- sidered according to the different data, it should be also considered that the same data should be analyzed with different statistical methods in order to get a more reasonable result by comparison.展开更多
In this paper, a new bias estimation method is proposed and applied in a regional ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） based on the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） Model. The method is based on a homogeneous linea...In this paper, a new bias estimation method is proposed and applied in a regional ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） based on the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） Model. The method is based on a homogeneous linear bias model, and the model bias is estimated using statistics at each assimilation cycle, which is different from the state augmentation methods proposed in pre- vious literatures. The new method provides a good estimation for the model bias of some specific variables, such as sea level pres- sure （SLP）. A series of numerical experiments with EnKF are performed to examine the new method under a severe weather condi- tion. Results show the positive effect of the method on the forecasting of circulation pattern and meso-scale systems, and the reduc- tion of analysis errors. The background error covarianee structures of surface variables and the effects of model system bias on EnKF are also studied under the error covariance structures and a new concept ＇correlation scale＇ is introduced. However, the new method needs further evaluation with more cases of assimilation.展开更多
Based on a 10-year simulation of six Regional Climate Models(RCMs) in phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-Comparison Project(RMIP) for Asia,the multivariate statistical method of common principal components(C...Based on a 10-year simulation of six Regional Climate Models(RCMs) in phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-Comparison Project(RMIP) for Asia,the multivariate statistical method of common principal components(CPCs) is used to analyze and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation simulated by multi-RCMs over China,including the mean climate states and their seasonal transition,the spatial distribution of interannual variability,and the interannual variation.CPC is an effective statistical tool for analyzing the results of different models.Compared with traditional statistical methods,CPC analyses provide a more complete statistical picture for observation and simulation results.The results of CPC analyses show that the climatological means and the characteristics of seasonal transition over China can be accurately simulated by RCMs.However,large biases exist in the interannual variation in certain years or for individual models.展开更多
基金Supported by the Guangdong Technological Program (2009B02001002)the Special Funds of National Agricultural Department for Commonweal Trade Research (nyhyzx07-019)the Earmarked Fund for Modern Agro-industry Technology Research System~~
文摘[Objective] The study aimed to compare several statistical analysis models for estimating the sugarcane （Saccharum spp.） genotypic stability. [Method] The data of sugarcane regional trials in Guangdong, in 2009 was analyzed by three models respectively： Finlay and Wilkinson model： the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction （AMMI） model and linear regression-principal components analysis （LR- PCA） model, so as to compare the models. [Result] The Finlay and Wilkinson model was easier, but the analysis of the other two models was more comprehensive, and there was a bit difference between the additive main effects and multiplicative inter- action （AMMI） model and linear regression-principal components analysis （LR-PCA） model. [Conclusion] In practice, while the proper statistical method was usually con- sidered according to the different data, it should be also considered that the same data should be analyzed with different statistical methods in order to get a more reasonable result by comparison.
基金supported by the Provincial Science and Technology Development Program of Shandong under Grant No.2008GG10008001Key Technology Integration and Application Program of China Meteorological Administration,under Grant No.CMAGJ2011M32+1 种基金Forecaster Research Program of China Meteorological Administration,under Grant No.CMAYBY2012-031Science and Technology Research Programs of Shandong Provincial Meteorological Bureau,under Grant Nos.2012sdqxz03,2012sdqxz01,2010sdqxz01
文摘In this paper, a new bias estimation method is proposed and applied in a regional ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） based on the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） Model. The method is based on a homogeneous linear bias model, and the model bias is estimated using statistics at each assimilation cycle, which is different from the state augmentation methods proposed in pre- vious literatures. The new method provides a good estimation for the model bias of some specific variables, such as sea level pres- sure （SLP）. A series of numerical experiments with EnKF are performed to examine the new method under a severe weather condi- tion. Results show the positive effect of the method on the forecasting of circulation pattern and meso-scale systems, and the reduc- tion of analysis errors. The background error covarianee structures of surface variables and the effects of model system bias on EnKF are also studied under the error covariance structures and a new concept ＇correlation scale＇ is introduced. However, the new method needs further evaluation with more cases of assimilation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program,Grant No.40975048)the Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090207)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KZCX2-EW-202)
文摘Based on a 10-year simulation of six Regional Climate Models(RCMs) in phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-Comparison Project(RMIP) for Asia,the multivariate statistical method of common principal components(CPCs) is used to analyze and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation simulated by multi-RCMs over China,including the mean climate states and their seasonal transition,the spatial distribution of interannual variability,and the interannual variation.CPC is an effective statistical tool for analyzing the results of different models.Compared with traditional statistical methods,CPC analyses provide a more complete statistical picture for observation and simulation results.The results of CPC analyses show that the climatological means and the characteristics of seasonal transition over China can be accurately simulated by RCMs.However,large biases exist in the interannual variation in certain years or for individual models.
