This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of Japanese manufacturing export. The volatility in yen is shown by conditional variance from EGARCH （Exponential Generalized Autoregres...This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of Japanese manufacturing export. The volatility in yen is shown by conditional variance from EGARCH （Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity） model, allowing for asymmetric effects that a shock of an appreciation of the yen is different from that of a depreciation of the yen. The export action model including exchange rate volatility is constructed based on VAR （Vector Auto Regressive） model to examine the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the volume of export. Tests are performed for typical eight kinds of industry in Japan. Few empirical studies focus on each Japanese industry export. Results indicate significant negative effects of exchange rate volatility on most manufacturing exports. In addition, this paper analyzes the each industry, featurc of the influence of exchange rate on the volume of Japanese export. The authors find that equipment industries occupying 60% or more of total Japanese exports especially tend to receive negative influence of exchange.展开更多
文摘This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of Japanese manufacturing export. The volatility in yen is shown by conditional variance from EGARCH （Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity） model, allowing for asymmetric effects that a shock of an appreciation of the yen is different from that of a depreciation of the yen. The export action model including exchange rate volatility is constructed based on VAR （Vector Auto Regressive） model to examine the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the volume of export. Tests are performed for typical eight kinds of industry in Japan. Few empirical studies focus on each Japanese industry export. Results indicate significant negative effects of exchange rate volatility on most manufacturing exports. In addition, this paper analyzes the each industry, featurc of the influence of exchange rate on the volume of Japanese export. The authors find that equipment industries occupying 60% or more of total Japanese exports especially tend to receive negative influence of exchange.
