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基于PLESN和LESQRN概率预测模型的短期电力负荷预测 被引量:2
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作者 樊江川 于昊正 +2 位作者 王冬生 安佳坤 杨丽君 《燕山大学学报》 北大核心 2024年第1期54-61,共8页
针对现有电力负荷预测不能很好反映负荷数据的周期性和趋势性以及残差的波动性特征提出一种考虑周期性建模的泄露积分型回声状态网络点预测模型和泄露积分型回声状态分位数回归网络概率预测模型组合的短期电力负荷预测方法.首先为了捕... 针对现有电力负荷预测不能很好反映负荷数据的周期性和趋势性以及残差的波动性特征提出一种考虑周期性建模的泄露积分型回声状态网络点预测模型和泄露积分型回声状态分位数回归网络概率预测模型组合的短期电力负荷预测方法.首先为了捕捉负荷的多重特征定义了周期性和趋势性损失函数辅助优化点预测模型然后为克服残差的波动问题利用概率预测模型对点预测值与真实值的残差进行建模预测最后整合同时刻的点预测值与残差预测区间得到概率预测模型结果.实际算例结果表明与其他模型相比所提模型不仅有效抑制尖端振荡现象而且能够生成可靠的概率密度分布. 展开更多
关键词 短期电力负荷预测 周期性建模 泄露积分型回声状态网络 分位数回归
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An Additive Hazards Model for Clustered Recurrent Gap Times 被引量:2
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作者 KANG Fangyuan SUN Liuquan CHENG Ximing 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第5期1377-1390,共14页
In this article, clustered recurrent gap time is investigated. A marginal additive haz- ards model is proposed without specifying the association of the individuals within the same cluster. The relationship among the ... In this article, clustered recurrent gap time is investigated. A marginal additive haz- ards model is proposed without specifying the association of the individuals within the same cluster. The relationship among the gap times for the same individual is also left unspecified. An estimating equation-based inference procedure is developed for the model parameters, and the asymptotic proper- ties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, a lack-of-fit test is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is illustrated. 展开更多
关键词 Additive hazards model CLUSTER gap time model checking recurrent event
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Automatic modeling together with numerical simulation of the different-scale microstructures of human tooth enamels
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作者 LIU Tao DENG Qiang +3 位作者 YANG Dan ZHENG Jing LIU JianTao ZHOU ZhongRong 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第9期1381-1399,共19页
The present paper aims to develop an automatical strategy for generating accurate different-scale microstructures of human tooth enamels(HTEs),and to elaborate a numerical scheme for simulating their elastic responses... The present paper aims to develop an automatical strategy for generating accurate different-scale microstructures of human tooth enamels(HTEs),and to elaborate a numerical scheme for simulating their elastic responses.At first,the strong governing formulation of these microstructures is briefly constructed,and the relevant weak formulation is then deduced based on the virtual work theorem.Afterwards,a subdividing approach,which cuts the elements intercepted by the interfaces between distinct phases automatically,is established with the aid of the level set method(LSM),and the discrete counterpart of the governing formula is obtained by combining the weak formulation derived and a discretized model.To be noted,two silent merits are found when the elaborated strategy is applied:(1) the continents constituting the microstructures of different scales can be arbitrarily-shaped and conveniently reproduced;(2) the periodic boundary condition commonly employed can be enforced on the external surfaces of representative unit cells(RUCs) with no difficulty.Besides,a boundary value problem(BVP) involving a simplified HTE nanostructure is designed,analytically solved,and hereafter applied to verify the correctness of the proposed strategy.It is observed that both the displacement and stress predictions by the computational approach are in good agreement with the relevant analytical results irrespective of the material combinations applied.Eventually,discussions are made on the influence of material organizations of both the 2D and 3D HTE microstructures at the ultrastructural and repeated rod levels,and some concluding remarks are drawn. 展开更多
关键词 tooth enamel level set method automatic modefing numerical simulation MICROSTRUCTURE
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