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公路货运量影响因素分析及趋势预测模型研究 被引量:1
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作者 常志宏 崔建 +3 位作者 康传刚 朱晓龙 李义凡 赵瀚林 《中国交通信息化》 2024年第S01期448-452,共5页
为了提高公路货运量预测的准确性,本文选取经济、基础设施、人口等影响因素,运用皮尔逊相关系数对影响因素与公路货运量之间的相关性进行分析,构建预测模型,并采用平均绝对误差法对模型精度进行验证。结果表明:经济因素中的建筑业增加... 为了提高公路货运量预测的准确性,本文选取经济、基础设施、人口等影响因素,运用皮尔逊相关系数对影响因素与公路货运量之间的相关性进行分析,构建预测模型,并采用平均绝对误差法对模型精度进行验证。结果表明:经济因素中的建筑业增加值对公路货运量的影响最大,皮尔逊相关系数为0.964,具有极显著性;其次是基础设施因素中的高速等级公路里程和人口因素中年末常住人口与公路货运量的相关性最高,相关系数分别为0.925,0.908,呈极显著性和显著性。研究发现,经济因素中以第二产业增加值为影响因素的预测模型平均绝对误差最低,为2602.466513;其次是基础设施因素中以公路里程为预测模型和人口因素中以常住人口为因子的预测模型误差最低,分别为5268.431313、11091.81933。 展开更多
关键词 公路 货运量 皮尔逊相关系数 一元非线性回归预测模型 平均绝对误差法
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Prediction of thermal conductivity of polymer-based composites by using support vector regression 被引量:2
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作者 WANG GuiLian CAI CongZhong +1 位作者 PEI JunFang ZHU XingJian 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第5期878-883,共6页
Support vector regression (SVR) combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) for its parameter optimization, was proposed to establish a model to predict the thermal conductivity of polymer-based composites under d... Support vector regression (SVR) combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) for its parameter optimization, was proposed to establish a model to predict the thermal conductivity of polymer-based composites under different mass fractions of fillers (mass fraction of polyethylene (PE) and mass fraction of polystyrene (PS)). The prediction performance of SVR was compared with those of other two theoretical models of spherical packing and flake packing. The result demonstrated that the estimated errors by leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) test of SVR models, such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), all are smaller than those achieved by the two theoretical models via applying identical samples. It is revealed that the generalization ability of SVR model is superior to those of the two theoretical models. This study suggests that SVR can be used as a powerful approach to foresee the thermal property of polymer-based composites under different mass fractions of polyethylene and polystyrene fillers. 展开更多
关键词 polymer matrix composites thermal conductivity support vector regression regression analysis PREDICTION
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