“二元悖论”是“三元悖论”的前沿理论成果,具体指经济体内外均衡问题中货币政策独立性与资本自由流动两个目标只能选择其一的矛盾,弥补了“三元悖论”难以解释浮动汇率制经济体风险隔离削弱现象的不足。本文基于“二元悖论”视角,分...“二元悖论”是“三元悖论”的前沿理论成果,具体指经济体内外均衡问题中货币政策独立性与资本自由流动两个目标只能选择其一的矛盾,弥补了“三元悖论”难以解释浮动汇率制经济体风险隔离削弱现象的不足。本文基于“二元悖论”视角,分析我国货币政策独立性的影响因素和重塑路径。本文从理论层面分析货币政策独立性与资本自由流动的二元系统,揭示人民币国际化提升货币政策独立性的底层逻辑,从实证层面以双重机器学习模型识别人民币国际化、金融深化、外汇储备与二元系统和货币政策独立性的关系。本文最后根据研究结论提出相关建议,一是深层次推进人民币国际化,二是高水平推进金融深化,三是优化外汇储备结构。The “Dilemma” is the cutting-edge theoretical achievement of the “Trilemma”, which specifically refers to the contradiction that only one of the two goals of monetary policy independence and capital flow can be chosen in the problem of internal and external equilibrium of the economy, which makes up for the lack of the “Trilemma” that is difficult to explain the weakening of risk isolation in economies with floating exchange rate system. Based on the perspective of “Dilemma”, this paper analyzes the influencing factors and reshaping paths of China’s monetary policy independence. This paper analyzes the dual system of monetary policy independence and capital flow from the theoretical level, reveals the underlying logic of RMB internationalization to enhance monetary policy independence, and uses a double machine learning model to identify the relationship between RMB internationalization, financial deepening, foreign exchange reserves, and the dual system and monetary policy independence from the empirical level. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions based on the research conclusions, one is to promote the internationalization of RMB at a deeper level, the second is to promote financial deepening at a high level, and the third is to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves.展开更多
目前为止,对于说谎者悖论的解答,我们可以找到大量的方案。为了理清这些方案的关系,本文提出一种合理有效的说谎者悖论解悖方案的分类标准。以往典型的分类标准有三种,第一种是源自塔斯基的二分分类标准;第二种是由二分分类标准发展的...目前为止,对于说谎者悖论的解答,我们可以找到大量的方案。为了理清这些方案的关系,本文提出一种合理有效的说谎者悖论解悖方案的分类标准。以往典型的分类标准有三种,第一种是源自塔斯基的二分分类标准;第二种是由二分分类标准发展的三分分类标准;第三种是Koons提出的分类标准。三种分类标准均是使用特殊概念作为分类依据,因此三种分类方案均存在时效性问题和特设性问题。这些问题使得已有的分类标准具有滞后性,无法有效对未来可能出现的解悖方案进行分类。本文提出的分类方式将以说谎者悖论本身为依据,而不是以特殊概念作为分类依据。因此新分类方式将避免在以往分类标准中由特殊概念作为分类依据而引起的问题。To date, we can identify a multitude of solutions to the liar paradox. To clarify the relationships among these approaches, this article proposes a reasonable and effective classification standard for liar paradox resolution schemes. Historically, there have been three typical classification standards: The first is the binary classification standard derived from Tarski, the second is the ternary classification standard developed from the binary classification standard, the third is the binary classification standard derived from Koons. All standards rely on specific concepts as the basis for classification, resulting in issues of time-sensitive and ad hoc nature. These issues cause existing classification standards to lag behind and fail to effectively categorize potential future solutions to the paradox. The classification method proposed in this article will be based on the liar paradox itself, rather than on specific concepts. Consequently, the new classification method will circumvent the problems associated with using specific concepts as the classification criteria in previous standards.展开更多
文摘“二元悖论”是“三元悖论”的前沿理论成果,具体指经济体内外均衡问题中货币政策独立性与资本自由流动两个目标只能选择其一的矛盾,弥补了“三元悖论”难以解释浮动汇率制经济体风险隔离削弱现象的不足。本文基于“二元悖论”视角,分析我国货币政策独立性的影响因素和重塑路径。本文从理论层面分析货币政策独立性与资本自由流动的二元系统,揭示人民币国际化提升货币政策独立性的底层逻辑,从实证层面以双重机器学习模型识别人民币国际化、金融深化、外汇储备与二元系统和货币政策独立性的关系。本文最后根据研究结论提出相关建议,一是深层次推进人民币国际化,二是高水平推进金融深化,三是优化外汇储备结构。The “Dilemma” is the cutting-edge theoretical achievement of the “Trilemma”, which specifically refers to the contradiction that only one of the two goals of monetary policy independence and capital flow can be chosen in the problem of internal and external equilibrium of the economy, which makes up for the lack of the “Trilemma” that is difficult to explain the weakening of risk isolation in economies with floating exchange rate system. Based on the perspective of “Dilemma”, this paper analyzes the influencing factors and reshaping paths of China’s monetary policy independence. This paper analyzes the dual system of monetary policy independence and capital flow from the theoretical level, reveals the underlying logic of RMB internationalization to enhance monetary policy independence, and uses a double machine learning model to identify the relationship between RMB internationalization, financial deepening, foreign exchange reserves, and the dual system and monetary policy independence from the empirical level. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions based on the research conclusions, one is to promote the internationalization of RMB at a deeper level, the second is to promote financial deepening at a high level, and the third is to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves.
文摘目前为止,对于说谎者悖论的解答,我们可以找到大量的方案。为了理清这些方案的关系,本文提出一种合理有效的说谎者悖论解悖方案的分类标准。以往典型的分类标准有三种,第一种是源自塔斯基的二分分类标准;第二种是由二分分类标准发展的三分分类标准;第三种是Koons提出的分类标准。三种分类标准均是使用特殊概念作为分类依据,因此三种分类方案均存在时效性问题和特设性问题。这些问题使得已有的分类标准具有滞后性,无法有效对未来可能出现的解悖方案进行分类。本文提出的分类方式将以说谎者悖论本身为依据,而不是以特殊概念作为分类依据。因此新分类方式将避免在以往分类标准中由特殊概念作为分类依据而引起的问题。To date, we can identify a multitude of solutions to the liar paradox. To clarify the relationships among these approaches, this article proposes a reasonable and effective classification standard for liar paradox resolution schemes. Historically, there have been three typical classification standards: The first is the binary classification standard derived from Tarski, the second is the ternary classification standard developed from the binary classification standard, the third is the binary classification standard derived from Koons. All standards rely on specific concepts as the basis for classification, resulting in issues of time-sensitive and ad hoc nature. These issues cause existing classification standards to lag behind and fail to effectively categorize potential future solutions to the paradox. The classification method proposed in this article will be based on the liar paradox itself, rather than on specific concepts. Consequently, the new classification method will circumvent the problems associated with using specific concepts as the classification criteria in previous standards.
