In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6. 4 Menyuan earthquake,the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the o...In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6. 4 Menyuan earthquake,the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the observation data of the tectonic environment monitoring network in Chinese Mainland. The deformation characteristics of the crust before the earthquake were discussed through inter-station baseline time series analysis and the strain time series analysis in the epicentral region. The results show that a trend turn of the baseline movement state around the epicenter region occurred after 2014,and the movement after 2014 reflects an obvious decreasing trend of compressional deformation.During this period,the stress field energy was in a certain accumulation state. Since the beginning of 2014,the EW-component linear strain and surface strain rate weakened gradually before the earthquake. It shows that there was an obvious deformation deficit at the epicentral area in the past two years,which indicates that the region accumulated a high degree of strain energy before the earthquake. Therefore,there was a significant background change in the area before the earthquake. The results of the study can provide basic research data for understanding the seismogenic process and mechanism of this earthquake.展开更多
Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whe...Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.展开更多
基金funded by the Earthquake Science and Technology Development Fund of GEA(Grant No.2016M02,2016Y02)the Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA(2017010221)+1 种基金the Fund of Science for Earthquake Resilience,CEA,(XH16038Y,XH14049)Grant of National Natural Science Foundation of China(51408567,41304048)
文摘In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6. 4 Menyuan earthquake,the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the observation data of the tectonic environment monitoring network in Chinese Mainland. The deformation characteristics of the crust before the earthquake were discussed through inter-station baseline time series analysis and the strain time series analysis in the epicentral region. The results show that a trend turn of the baseline movement state around the epicenter region occurred after 2014,and the movement after 2014 reflects an obvious decreasing trend of compressional deformation.During this period,the stress field energy was in a certain accumulation state. Since the beginning of 2014,the EW-component linear strain and surface strain rate weakened gradually before the earthquake. It shows that there was an obvious deformation deficit at the epicentral area in the past two years,which indicates that the region accumulated a high degree of strain energy before the earthquake. Therefore,there was a significant background change in the area before the earthquake. The results of the study can provide basic research data for understanding the seismogenic process and mechanism of this earthquake.
文摘Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.
