The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismi...The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.展开更多
The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilis...The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system(GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County,Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distributionof the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.展开更多
A deterministic approach is frequently used in engineering design. In this quantitative design methodology, a safety factor, which is typically a strength-to-stress ratio, is derived as an index for the stability asse...A deterministic approach is frequently used in engineering design. In this quantitative design methodology, a safety factor, which is typically a strength-to-stress ratio, is derived as an index for the stability assessment of the engineering design. In underground coal mining applications such as pillar design,however, the inputs of pillar design are variables. This is widely overlooked in the deterministic approach. A probabilistic approach assessing the probability of failure or reliability of a system might be an alternative to the conventional quantitative methodology. This approach can incorporate the degree of uncertainty and deviations of variables and provide more versatile and reliable results. In this research, the reliability of case histories from stable and failed pillars of South Africa presented by Merwe and Mathey is examed. The updated Salamon and Munro strength formula(S-M formula) and Merwe and Mathey strength formula(M-M formula) are evaluated through a probabilistic approach. It is concluded that stable pillar cases have a reliability value greater than 0.83 while the reliability value of failed pillar cases are slightly larger than 0.50. There seems to be a positive relation between safety factor and reliability. The reliability of a pillar increases with pillar width but decreases with depth of cover, pillar height and entry width. The reliability analysis also confirms that M-M strength formula has a better distinction between the stable and failed pillar cases.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program (Grant No. 2011BAK12B01)Basic Scientific Project of Ministry of Sciences and Technology of China (Grant No. 2011FY110100-3)
文摘The Longchi area with the city of Dujiangyan, in the Sichuan province of China, is composed of Permian stone and diorites and Triassic sandstones and mudstones intercalated with slates. An abundance of loose co-seismic materials were present on the slopes after the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which in later years served as source material for rainfall-induced debris flows or shallow landslides. A total of 48 debris flows, all triggered by heavy rainfall on 13th August 20l0, are described in this paper. Field investigation, supported by remote sensing image interpretation, was conducted to interpret the co-seismic landslides in the debris flow gullies. Specific characteristics of the study area such as slope, aspect, elevation, channel gradient, lithology, and gully density were selected for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. A score was given to all the debris flow gullies based on the probability of debris flow occurrence for the selected factors. In order to get the contribution of the different factors, principal component analyses were applied. A comprehensive score was obtained for the 48 debris flow gullies which enabled us to make a susceptibility map for debris flows with three classes. Twenty-two gullies have a high susceptibility, twenty gullies show a moderate susceptibility and six gullies have a low susceptibility for debris flows.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(SN:41572292)the follow-up work of geological disaster prevention projects in Three Gorges Reservoir supported the research in thispaper(SN:0001212015CC60005)
文摘The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system(GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County,Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distributionof the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of General Programs of China (Nos. 51574244, 51674264 and 51674243)
文摘A deterministic approach is frequently used in engineering design. In this quantitative design methodology, a safety factor, which is typically a strength-to-stress ratio, is derived as an index for the stability assessment of the engineering design. In underground coal mining applications such as pillar design,however, the inputs of pillar design are variables. This is widely overlooked in the deterministic approach. A probabilistic approach assessing the probability of failure or reliability of a system might be an alternative to the conventional quantitative methodology. This approach can incorporate the degree of uncertainty and deviations of variables and provide more versatile and reliable results. In this research, the reliability of case histories from stable and failed pillars of South Africa presented by Merwe and Mathey is examed. The updated Salamon and Munro strength formula(S-M formula) and Merwe and Mathey strength formula(M-M formula) are evaluated through a probabilistic approach. It is concluded that stable pillar cases have a reliability value greater than 0.83 while the reliability value of failed pillar cases are slightly larger than 0.50. There seems to be a positive relation between safety factor and reliability. The reliability of a pillar increases with pillar width but decreases with depth of cover, pillar height and entry width. The reliability analysis also confirms that M-M strength formula has a better distinction between the stable and failed pillar cases.
