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订单农业履约率的概率辨析 被引量:18
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作者 卢小广 吴剑平 《经济问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第3期38-41,共4页
农业远期合约是一种具有局限性和偶遇性特征的交易契约,我国的"订单农业"合约中的双方处于不完全信息状态,形成了基于信息非对称导致的市场失灵。对"订单农业"中签约双方违约可能性进行了概率辨析,论述了控制农户... 农业远期合约是一种具有局限性和偶遇性特征的交易契约,我国的"订单农业"合约中的双方处于不完全信息状态,形成了基于信息非对称导致的市场失灵。对"订单农业"中签约双方违约可能性进行了概率辨析,论述了控制农户和公司出现违约的理论和思想,提出必要先期支出、必要价格空间等指标概念和计算方法,引入了期货市场的价格发现和套期保值机制,来构建农业再生产过程的信息发现和信息传递机制,实现农业经营风险的外部转移,提高我国农业履约率。 展开更多
关键词 订单农业 概率辨析 履约率
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产品缺陷、产品瑕疵与产品不合格法律辨析 被引量:15
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作者 唐启光 孙加锋 《政治与法律》 CSSCI 北大核心 2001年第1期37-40,共4页
关键词 中国 产品质量法 产品缺陷 产品瑕疵 产品质量不合格 定义 概率辨析 判断标准 责任性质
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Assessing MODIS Land Cover Products over China with Probability of Interannual Change
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作者 GAO Hao JIA Gen-Suo 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2014年第6期564-570,共7页
Accurate and up-to-date land cover data are important for climate-change modeling. Quality assessment is becoming critical, as many satellite-based land cover products of differing scales have been released to meet th... Accurate and up-to-date land cover data are important for climate-change modeling. Quality assessment is becoming critical, as many satellite-based land cover products of differing scales have been released to meet the needs of scientific studies. In this study, the authors assessed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) land cover products by analyzing the probability of interannual change from 2001 to 2012. The authors found that, cumulatively, 43.0% of MODIS land cover had changed over China from 2001 to 2012 at least once. Of this percentage, 12.1% was considered unreasonable change, 6.1% was considered reasonable change, and areas of confusion accounted for about 24.8%, giving rise to great uncertainty in the products. MODIS Collection 51 products clearly have less uncertainty than the Collection 5 products. Areas of reasonable change occurred in transition zones of ecological, biophysical, and climate gradients, while areas of unreasonable change appeared in heterogeneous landscapes. The misclassifications at three spatial scales of horizontal grids used in regional climate models occurred largely in the heterogeneous landscapes, and the areal percentage of misclassification decreased with larger horizontal grid spacing. In addition, the misclassifications in MODIS products often occurred among specific classes, which are geographically, ecologically, and spectrally similar, with low discriminative spectral-temporal signals. The effect of classification uncertainty should be made known, and further improvements are still needed for application in regional climate models. The authors' findings have important implications for better understanding the uncertainties of MODIS land cover products, and for improving the land surface parameterization for regional climate models. 展开更多
关键词 land cover MODIS quality UNCERTAINTY interannual change
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