利用2015-2018年乌鲁木齐机场航空例行天气报告(METAR报)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格数值预报产品对影响能见度的主要因子进行分析,提取与低能见度相关性高的物理量作为预报因子,采用SVM方法...利用2015-2018年乌鲁木齐机场航空例行天气报告(METAR报)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格数值预报产品对影响能见度的主要因子进行分析,提取与低能见度相关性高的物理量作为预报因子,采用SVM方法,分别基于Poly、RBF核函数建立乌鲁木齐机场未来21 h能见度预报模型。结果表明:(1)基于预报因子区间分类的SVM模型物理意义明确,试验结果较好;以RBF为函数建立的SVM模型(SVM-RBF)预报能力更好,其训练样本预测的TS评分0.84,准确率89.20%。(2)SVM-RBF模型的检验样本中,预报准确样本的预报误差整体偏小;在漏报样本中则有能见度越低、预报误差越大的特点,模型的振荡性明显。(3)结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究SVM-RBF模型对天气过程的预报表现,发现模型对于特定天气形势下引发的低能见度天气,预报误差较小且预报提前量较大。展开更多
The lifespan models of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries （nominal capacity of 1150 mA-h） were presented. The lifespan was extrapolated based on this model. The results indicate that the relationship of cap...The lifespan models of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries （nominal capacity of 1150 mA-h） were presented. The lifespan was extrapolated based on this model. The results indicate that the relationship of capacity retention and cycle number can be expressed by Gaussian function. The selecting function and optimal precision were verified through actual match detection and a range of alternating current impedance testing. The cycle life model with high precision （〉99%） is beneficial to shortening the orediction time and cutting the prediction cost.展开更多
Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariat...Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.展开更多
This study aimed to contribute in establishing an international journalism model of professionalism in the production of the news. The main purpose is to explore the degree to which this model predicts the professiona...This study aimed to contribute in establishing an international journalism model of professionalism in the production of the news. The main purpose is to explore the degree to which this model predicts the professional values in the media content. In particular, this model was tested on the content of a leading news organization in the Middle East, AI Jazeera, to identify whether or not AI Jazeera reflected professional values in news production or other non-professional values. A total of 592 news stories--234 from AJE and 358 from AJA--published from January I, 2014, to April 30, 2014, were analyzed. The findings of this study indicate that AI Jazeera reflects professional values to a substantial degree. The professional values were reflected highly and nearly two thirds of the stories had professional values in the content. The chi square tests shows there are frequency/percentage differences, but overall the patterns are similar, with no statistically significant differences in the AJA and AlE. Scholarly implications, future studies and limitations were presented in this study.展开更多
In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in ho...In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.展开更多
文摘利用2015-2018年乌鲁木齐机场航空例行天气报告(METAR报)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格数值预报产品对影响能见度的主要因子进行分析,提取与低能见度相关性高的物理量作为预报因子,采用SVM方法,分别基于Poly、RBF核函数建立乌鲁木齐机场未来21 h能见度预报模型。结果表明:(1)基于预报因子区间分类的SVM模型物理意义明确,试验结果较好;以RBF为函数建立的SVM模型(SVM-RBF)预报能力更好,其训练样本预测的TS评分0.84,准确率89.20%。(2)SVM-RBF模型的检验样本中,预报准确样本的预报误差整体偏小;在漏报样本中则有能见度越低、预报误差越大的特点,模型的振荡性明显。(3)结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究SVM-RBF模型对天气过程的预报表现,发现模型对于特定天气形势下引发的低能见度天气,预报误差较小且预报提前量较大。
基金Projects(51204209,51274240)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(HNDLKJ[2012]001-1)supported by Henan Electric Power Science&Technology Supporting Program,China
文摘The lifespan models of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries （nominal capacity of 1150 mA-h） were presented. The lifespan was extrapolated based on this model. The results indicate that the relationship of capacity retention and cycle number can be expressed by Gaussian function. The selecting function and optimal precision were verified through actual match detection and a range of alternating current impedance testing. The cycle life model with high precision （〉99%） is beneficial to shortening the orediction time and cutting the prediction cost.
文摘Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.
文摘This study aimed to contribute in establishing an international journalism model of professionalism in the production of the news. The main purpose is to explore the degree to which this model predicts the professional values in the media content. In particular, this model was tested on the content of a leading news organization in the Middle East, AI Jazeera, to identify whether or not AI Jazeera reflected professional values in news production or other non-professional values. A total of 592 news stories--234 from AJE and 358 from AJA--published from January I, 2014, to April 30, 2014, were analyzed. The findings of this study indicate that AI Jazeera reflects professional values to a substantial degree. The professional values were reflected highly and nearly two thirds of the stories had professional values in the content. The chi square tests shows there are frequency/percentage differences, but overall the patterns are similar, with no statistically significant differences in the AJA and AlE. Scholarly implications, future studies and limitations were presented in this study.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program under Grant No.2009BADA 9BB01-4the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71173210 and 61273208
文摘In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.
