计算机网络信息各种风险的定量评估方法研究是一项重要的基础性研究,是 IT 领域中的前沿课题之一。综述了计算机网络安全以及网络信息安全评估标准和评价现状,应用系统工程的理论和方法识别、分析和评价网络信息安全固有或潜在风险发生...计算机网络信息各种风险的定量评估方法研究是一项重要的基础性研究,是 IT 领域中的前沿课题之一。综述了计算机网络安全以及网络信息安全评估标准和评价现状,应用系统工程的理论和方法识别、分析和评价网络信息安全固有或潜在风险发生的可能性和危险因素,论述了网络综合安全风险的评价步骤与过程,建立基于硬件、软件及外部环境的计算机网络信息安全综合评价指标体系,给出了基于网络安全多级模糊综合评价模型及其评价方法。并结合网络实例给出了使用评价模型进行网络安全评价的步骤和方法,评价结果与实际相符。展开更多
To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden...To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.展开更多
Urban construction land suitability evaluation （UCLSE） is a complex system engineering and the basis for rational use of the limited urban land resources in China. It has an important practical value on urban constr...Urban construction land suitability evaluation （UCLSE） is a complex system engineering and the basis for rational use of the limited urban land resources in China. It has an important practical value on urban construction land use planning and management from the angle of methodology. As a widely used technique, traditional multi-criteria evaluation based on GIS （MCE-GIS）, is not suitable for UCLSE. This study develops an improved MCE-GIS method which could be more suitable for UCLSE based on urban complex ecological system theory and the summary of the shortcomings of traditional MCE-GIS. The improvements include three aspects： a composite evaluation index system rather than natural indexes alone, an index weight calculated by using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method rather than the common AHP method, and the integrated overlay rule, which includes selecting the minimum value, weighted linear combination （WLC） and simple summation. The main advantage of this improved technique is that it can make UCLSE more comprehensive, more operational and more reasonable. It can provide a scientific basis for decision making in the planning and management of urban construction land use. The improved MCE-GIS system has been adopted in the New Hefei City, Anhui Province, China. Based on the results of UCLSE in New Hefei, three functional areas including construction-appropriate areas, construction-restricted areas and construction-forbidden areas could be worked out, in which 36.90% of the total study area could be developed as urban construction land and the remaining 63.10% should be protected as reserves land or as ecological land. Furthermore, the results can orovide scientific decision suooort for spatial planning and eco-environment nrotection in New Hefei.展开更多
Based on the analysis about the hydrogeological conditions and engineering geological conditions, this paper makes analysis on the possible risks of the deep overlying stratum foundation and establishes the risk evalu...Based on the analysis about the hydrogeological conditions and engineering geological conditions, this paper makes analysis on the possible risks of the deep overlying stratum foundation and establishes the risk evaluation index system during the foundation operating period. Such methods as analytic hierarchy process （AHP） , Delphi method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are adopted to make the quantitative analysis on the risk factors and establish the risk judgment model. According to the actual engineering of Taizhou Bridge, the paper evaluates the risk of the foundation during the operating period at the condition of deep overlying stratum. The evaluation results can provide the reference for the risk management of the bridge foundation durin~ the ooerating period.展开更多
Based on the theory of Fuzzy Mathematics and Expert System, this paper presents the quantitative expression method of bedded and joint bearing rock mass quality "Stratum Quality Index"(SQI for short), and al...Based on the theory of Fuzzy Mathematics and Expert System, this paper presents the quantitative expression method of bedded and joint bearing rock mass quality "Stratum Quality Index"(SQI for short), and also introduces the successful application of the method in estimating stratum movement parameters.展开更多
文摘计算机网络信息各种风险的定量评估方法研究是一项重要的基础性研究,是 IT 领域中的前沿课题之一。综述了计算机网络安全以及网络信息安全评估标准和评价现状,应用系统工程的理论和方法识别、分析和评价网络信息安全固有或潜在风险发生的可能性和危险因素,论述了网络综合安全风险的评价步骤与过程,建立基于硬件、软件及外部环境的计算机网络信息安全综合评价指标体系,给出了基于网络安全多级模糊综合评价模型及其评价方法。并结合网络实例给出了使用评价模型进行网络安全评价的步骤和方法,评价结果与实际相符。
基金the Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China (No. 201205012)Preferential Funding of Tianjin
文摘To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41201168)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2013HGXJ0207)
文摘Urban construction land suitability evaluation （UCLSE） is a complex system engineering and the basis for rational use of the limited urban land resources in China. It has an important practical value on urban construction land use planning and management from the angle of methodology. As a widely used technique, traditional multi-criteria evaluation based on GIS （MCE-GIS）, is not suitable for UCLSE. This study develops an improved MCE-GIS method which could be more suitable for UCLSE based on urban complex ecological system theory and the summary of the shortcomings of traditional MCE-GIS. The improvements include three aspects： a composite evaluation index system rather than natural indexes alone, an index weight calculated by using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method rather than the common AHP method, and the integrated overlay rule, which includes selecting the minimum value, weighted linear combination （WLC） and simple summation. The main advantage of this improved technique is that it can make UCLSE more comprehensive, more operational and more reasonable. It can provide a scientific basis for decision making in the planning and management of urban construction land use. The improved MCE-GIS system has been adopted in the New Hefei City, Anhui Province, China. Based on the results of UCLSE in New Hefei, three functional areas including construction-appropriate areas, construction-restricted areas and construction-forbidden areas could be worked out, in which 36.90% of the total study area could be developed as urban construction land and the remaining 63.10% should be protected as reserves land or as ecological land. Furthermore, the results can orovide scientific decision suooort for spatial planning and eco-environment nrotection in New Hefei.
基金National Science and Technology Support Program of China(No.2009BAG15B02)Key Programs for Science and Technology Development of Chinese Transportation Industry(No.2008-353-332-180)
文摘Based on the analysis about the hydrogeological conditions and engineering geological conditions, this paper makes analysis on the possible risks of the deep overlying stratum foundation and establishes the risk evaluation index system during the foundation operating period. Such methods as analytic hierarchy process （AHP） , Delphi method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are adopted to make the quantitative analysis on the risk factors and establish the risk judgment model. According to the actual engineering of Taizhou Bridge, the paper evaluates the risk of the foundation during the operating period at the condition of deep overlying stratum. The evaluation results can provide the reference for the risk management of the bridge foundation durin~ the ooerating period.
文摘Based on the theory of Fuzzy Mathematics and Expert System, this paper presents the quantitative expression method of bedded and joint bearing rock mass quality "Stratum Quality Index"(SQI for short), and also introduces the successful application of the method in estimating stratum movement parameters.
