Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 should affect the dynamics of soil organic carbon （SOC）. SOC dynamics under uncertain patterns of climate warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 as well as with different so...Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 should affect the dynamics of soil organic carbon （SOC）. SOC dynamics under uncertain patterns of climate warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 as well as with different soil erosion extents at Nelson Farm during 1998-100 were simulated using stochastic modelling. Results based on numerous simulations showed that SOC decreased with elevated atmospheric temperature but increased with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, there was a counteract effect on SOC dynamics between climate warming and elevated CO2. For different soil erosion extents, warming 1℃ and elevated atmospheric CO2 resulted in SOC increase at least 15%, while warming 5 ℃ and elevated CO2 resulted in SOC decrease more than 29%. SOC predictions with uncertainty assessment were conducted for different scenarios of soil erosion, climate change, and elevated CO2. Statistically, SOC decreased linearly with the probability. SOC also decreased with time and the degree of soil erosion. For example, in 2100 with a probability of 50%, SOC was 1 617, 1 167, and 892 g m^-2, respectively, for no, minimum, and maximum soil erosion. Under climate warming 5 ℃ and elevated CO2, the soil carbon pools became a carbon source to the atmosphere （P 〉 95%）. The results suggested that stochastic modelling could be a useful tool to predict future SOC dynamics under uncertain climate change and elevated CO2.展开更多
Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized al...Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized albedo model with the geological evidence and observation in climate system to construct a new albedo model.Secondly,a bistable nonlinear system is constructed by introducing the albedo model into zero-dimensional energy balance model.Finally,based on this new system,with the solar radiation cycles and stochastic perturbation simultaneously taken into account,the variation of 100-kyr cycles is analyzed by numerical simulations.The results show that,when the noise intensity reaches a certain value,the stochastic resonance can be triggered.However,the noise intensity in this level does not exist in the actual climate system.In order to explain the formation mechanism of 100-kyr glacial-interglacial cycles forced by the weak solar radiation cycles,besides the solar radiation stochastic perturbation,the stochastic dynamic effects of the other "non-solar" radiation stochastic perturbation in the climate change processes should also be considered.The stochastic dynamic simulations taking the two types of stochastic perturbation into consideration show that,when the two types of appropriately observable stochastic perturbation are introduced,the stochastic resonance also can be generated.In this situation,the contribution rate of solar radiation stochastic perturbation is about 38%,which proves the importance of solar radiation stochastic perturbation in the formation of 100-kyr climate cycles.展开更多
Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more...Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more confidence, the uncertainty interval should be as narrow as possible. Here, the soil organic carbon （SOC） dynamics of the major paddy soil subgroup from 4 different paddy field regions of China （located in 4 counties under different climate-soil-management combinations） were modeled using the DeNitrification- DeComposition （DNDC） model for the period from 1980 to 2008. Uncertainty intervals associated with the SOC dynamics for these 4 subgroups were estimated by a long-term global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis （i. e., the Sobolt method）, and their sensitivities to 7 influential factors were quantified using the total effect sensitivity index. The results, modeled with high confidence, indicated that in the past 29 years, the studied paddy soils in Xinxing, Yixing, and Zhongjiang counties were carbon （C） sinks, while the paddy soil in Helong County was a C source. The 3 C sinks sequestered 12.2 （5.4, 19.6）, 17.1 （8.9, 25.0）, and 16.9 （-1.2, 33.6） t C ha-1 （values in the parentheses are the 5th and 95th percentiles, respectively）. Conversely, the C source had a loss of -5.4 （-14.2, 0.06） t C ha-1 in the past 29 years. The 7 factors, which changed with the climate-soil-management context, exhibited variable influences on modeled SOC. Measures with potential to conserve or sequestrate more C into paddy soils, such as incorporating more crop residues into soils and reducing chemical fertilizer application rates, were recommended for specific soils based on the sensitivity analysis results.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51039007 and 51179212)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 should affect the dynamics of soil organic carbon （SOC）. SOC dynamics under uncertain patterns of climate warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 as well as with different soil erosion extents at Nelson Farm during 1998-100 were simulated using stochastic modelling. Results based on numerous simulations showed that SOC decreased with elevated atmospheric temperature but increased with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, there was a counteract effect on SOC dynamics between climate warming and elevated CO2. For different soil erosion extents, warming 1℃ and elevated atmospheric CO2 resulted in SOC increase at least 15%, while warming 5 ℃ and elevated CO2 resulted in SOC decrease more than 29%. SOC predictions with uncertainty assessment were conducted for different scenarios of soil erosion, climate change, and elevated CO2. Statistically, SOC decreased linearly with the probability. SOC also decreased with time and the degree of soil erosion. For example, in 2100 with a probability of 50%, SOC was 1 617, 1 167, and 892 g m^-2, respectively, for no, minimum, and maximum soil erosion. Under climate warming 5 ℃ and elevated CO2, the soil carbon pools became a carbon source to the atmosphere （P 〉 95%）. The results suggested that stochastic modelling could be a useful tool to predict future SOC dynamics under uncertain climate change and elevated CO2.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205083)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘Based upon the stochastic resonance theory,the formation mechanism of 100-kyr cycles in climate system is numerically studied in the perspective of stochastic dynamics.In this study,firstly we combine the idealized albedo model with the geological evidence and observation in climate system to construct a new albedo model.Secondly,a bistable nonlinear system is constructed by introducing the albedo model into zero-dimensional energy balance model.Finally,based on this new system,with the solar radiation cycles and stochastic perturbation simultaneously taken into account,the variation of 100-kyr cycles is analyzed by numerical simulations.The results show that,when the noise intensity reaches a certain value,the stochastic resonance can be triggered.However,the noise intensity in this level does not exist in the actual climate system.In order to explain the formation mechanism of 100-kyr glacial-interglacial cycles forced by the weak solar radiation cycles,besides the solar radiation stochastic perturbation,the stochastic dynamic effects of the other "non-solar" radiation stochastic perturbation in the climate change processes should also be considered.The stochastic dynamic simulations taking the two types of stochastic perturbation into consideration show that,when the two types of appropriately observable stochastic perturbation are introduced,the stochastic resonance also can be generated.In this situation,the contribution rate of solar radiation stochastic perturbation is about 38%,which proves the importance of solar radiation stochastic perturbation in the formation of 100-kyr climate cycles.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41471177)the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX2-EW-QN404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA05050509)
文摘Reporting modeling results with uncertainty information can benefit decision making by decreasing the extent that variability exerts a disproportionate influence on the options selected. For making decisions with more confidence, the uncertainty interval should be as narrow as possible. Here, the soil organic carbon （SOC） dynamics of the major paddy soil subgroup from 4 different paddy field regions of China （located in 4 counties under different climate-soil-management combinations） were modeled using the DeNitrification- DeComposition （DNDC） model for the period from 1980 to 2008. Uncertainty intervals associated with the SOC dynamics for these 4 subgroups were estimated by a long-term global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis （i. e., the Sobolt method）, and their sensitivities to 7 influential factors were quantified using the total effect sensitivity index. The results, modeled with high confidence, indicated that in the past 29 years, the studied paddy soils in Xinxing, Yixing, and Zhongjiang counties were carbon （C） sinks, while the paddy soil in Helong County was a C source. The 3 C sinks sequestered 12.2 （5.4, 19.6）, 17.1 （8.9, 25.0）, and 16.9 （-1.2, 33.6） t C ha-1 （values in the parentheses are the 5th and 95th percentiles, respectively）. Conversely, the C source had a loss of -5.4 （-14.2, 0.06） t C ha-1 in the past 29 years. The 7 factors, which changed with the climate-soil-management context, exhibited variable influences on modeled SOC. Measures with potential to conserve or sequestrate more C into paddy soils, such as incorporating more crop residues into soils and reducing chemical fertilizer application rates, were recommended for specific soils based on the sensitivity analysis results.
