本文主要研究的是经济政策的不确定性、融资结构与企业经营绩效三者之间的关系。通过建立门槛效应模型,将融资结构作为门槛变量,回归后发现其存在显著的双门槛效应,得出以下结论:(1) 经济政策不确定性对于企业而言弊大于利,对企业经营...本文主要研究的是经济政策的不确定性、融资结构与企业经营绩效三者之间的关系。通过建立门槛效应模型,将融资结构作为门槛变量,回归后发现其存在显著的双门槛效应,得出以下结论:(1) 经济政策不确定性对于企业而言弊大于利,对企业经营绩效有负向影响。(2) 融资结构的存在,使得经济政策不确定性对企业经营绩效的影响发生改变,当企业资产负债率小于24.46%时,融资结构会抑制经营绩效与经济政策不确定性的负相关关系。当企业资产负债率位于24.46%和84.73%之间时,融资结构对经济政策不确定性带来的负向影响的抑制作用开始逐渐减弱。当企业资产负债率高于84.73%时,企业的债务将加剧经济不确定性带来的对企业经营绩效的冲击。In the empirical study of economic policy uncertainty, financing structure and business performance, this paper establishes a threshold effect model and takes financing structure as a threshold variable, finds that there is a significant double threshold effect after regression, and draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic policy uncertainty does more harm than good to enterprises and has a negative impact on business performance. (2) The existence of financing structure changes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on business performance, and when the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is less than 24.46%, the financing structure will inhibit the negative correlation between business performance and economic policy uncertainty. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is between 24.46% and 84.73%, the dampening effect of financial structure on the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty has begun to fade. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is higher than 84.73%, corporate debt will exacerbate the impact of economic uncertainty on business performance.展开更多
水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入...水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入量的变化量之间的数学关系,结合经典概率论,提出了能够分辨模型结构不确定性来源的考虑模型结构不确定性的动态系统响应曲线校正方法(dynamic system response curve method considering the model structure uncertainty,UNDSRC).将该方法应用于大坡岭流域与富水流域检验UNDSRC方法的综合表现,并与DSRC方法进行比较.研究表明:1)在实际流域检验中,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更好的校正效果,校正效果评价系数分别为0.82与0.60;2)DSRC方法在2个实际流域均可以对新安江模型进行有效校正,且校正效果相似;3)UNDSRC方法校正效果优异且稳定,能够适应更复杂的流域下垫面情况,方法对洪峰流量的校正优于对径流深的校正;4)校正精度相同的情况下,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更小的岭系数.展开更多
文摘本文主要研究的是经济政策的不确定性、融资结构与企业经营绩效三者之间的关系。通过建立门槛效应模型,将融资结构作为门槛变量,回归后发现其存在显著的双门槛效应,得出以下结论:(1) 经济政策不确定性对于企业而言弊大于利,对企业经营绩效有负向影响。(2) 融资结构的存在,使得经济政策不确定性对企业经营绩效的影响发生改变,当企业资产负债率小于24.46%时,融资结构会抑制经营绩效与经济政策不确定性的负相关关系。当企业资产负债率位于24.46%和84.73%之间时,融资结构对经济政策不确定性带来的负向影响的抑制作用开始逐渐减弱。当企业资产负债率高于84.73%时,企业的债务将加剧经济不确定性带来的对企业经营绩效的冲击。In the empirical study of economic policy uncertainty, financing structure and business performance, this paper establishes a threshold effect model and takes financing structure as a threshold variable, finds that there is a significant double threshold effect after regression, and draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic policy uncertainty does more harm than good to enterprises and has a negative impact on business performance. (2) The existence of financing structure changes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on business performance, and when the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is less than 24.46%, the financing structure will inhibit the negative correlation between business performance and economic policy uncertainty. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is between 24.46% and 84.73%, the dampening effect of financial structure on the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty has begun to fade. When the asset-liability ratio of enterprises is higher than 84.73%, corporate debt will exacerbate the impact of economic uncertainty on business performance.
文摘水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入量的变化量之间的数学关系,结合经典概率论,提出了能够分辨模型结构不确定性来源的考虑模型结构不确定性的动态系统响应曲线校正方法(dynamic system response curve method considering the model structure uncertainty,UNDSRC).将该方法应用于大坡岭流域与富水流域检验UNDSRC方法的综合表现,并与DSRC方法进行比较.研究表明:1)在实际流域检验中,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更好的校正效果,校正效果评价系数分别为0.82与0.60;2)DSRC方法在2个实际流域均可以对新安江模型进行有效校正,且校正效果相似;3)UNDSRC方法校正效果优异且稳定,能够适应更复杂的流域下垫面情况,方法对洪峰流量的校正优于对径流深的校正;4)校正精度相同的情况下,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更小的岭系数.
