This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of ca...This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of calculation for human error probability during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) based on the data drew from the recent experiment is offered.展开更多
In our society, it is a major issue to enhance cooperative behaviors. Without this, our society fall into social dilemma situations, and gets worse and worse. Such a situation in an organization leads to violation of ...In our society, it is a major issue to enhance cooperative behaviors. Without this, our society fall into social dilemma situations, and gets worse and worse. Such a situation in an organization leads to violation of social or organizational rules, and at the worst case it suffers from serious accidents or scandals. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to make efforts and take measures to enhance cooperative behaviors. Although there seem to be many ways to constantly elicit cooperative behaviors, the punishment is one of the most effective measures for enhancing cooperation. This study focused on the effects of penalty and probability of the revelation of defection on the cooperation, and getting insight into how punishment strategy should be used to get rid of social dilemmas and enhance cooperation. This study conducted a simulation experiment to find the proper penal regulations condition that can suppress violations （defective behavior） in a 2-person prisoner＇s dilemma situation. The effects of probability of the revelation of defection and penalty to revelation on the cooperative behavior were identified with the interactive effect of both experimental factors. The defection （uncooperative behavior） decreased when the penalty to the defection was heavy and the probability of the revelation of defection was low than that when the penalty to the defection was light and the probability of the revelation of the defection was high.展开更多
The multi-fractal ity over China are studied behaviors of relative humid using the multi-fractal de trended fluctuation analysis （DFA） method. Three multi fractal parameters （the spectrum width Aa, the asymmetry Aa...The multi-fractal ity over China are studied behaviors of relative humid using the multi-fractal de trended fluctuation analysis （DFA） method. Three multi fractal parameters （the spectrum width Aa, the asymmetry Aaas, and the long-range correlation exponent a0） of the singularity spectrum are introduced to quantify the multi-fractal behaviors. The results show that multi-frac tality exists in daily humidity records over most stations in China and is mainly due to the broad distribution of the probability density of the sequence values. Strong multi fractal behaviors over some stations in the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia provinces are obvious. These behaviors are mainly caused by different long range correlations between large and small fluctuations. The asymmetry of the singularity of relative humidity records is weak, except for a small number of stations in the far east and west of China, where the singularity spec trum is left-skewed. Finally, the long-range correlations in North China are stronger than those in South China, which indicates better predictability in North China. By studying the parameters of the multi-fractal spectrum, various data of long-range power law correlations of the relative humidity records are obtained, which may pro vide theoretical support for climate prediction.展开更多
文摘This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of calculation for human error probability during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) based on the data drew from the recent experiment is offered.
文摘In our society, it is a major issue to enhance cooperative behaviors. Without this, our society fall into social dilemma situations, and gets worse and worse. Such a situation in an organization leads to violation of social or organizational rules, and at the worst case it suffers from serious accidents or scandals. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to make efforts and take measures to enhance cooperative behaviors. Although there seem to be many ways to constantly elicit cooperative behaviors, the punishment is one of the most effective measures for enhancing cooperation. This study focused on the effects of penalty and probability of the revelation of defection on the cooperation, and getting insight into how punishment strategy should be used to get rid of social dilemmas and enhance cooperation. This study conducted a simulation experiment to find the proper penal regulations condition that can suppress violations （defective behavior） in a 2-person prisoner＇s dilemma situation. The effects of probability of the revelation of defection and penalty to revelation on the cooperative behavior were identified with the interactive effect of both experimental factors. The defection （uncooperative behavior） decreased when the penalty to the defection was heavy and the probability of the revelation of defection was low than that when the penalty to the defection was light and the probability of the revelation of the defection was high.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40975027)
文摘The multi-fractal ity over China are studied behaviors of relative humid using the multi-fractal de trended fluctuation analysis （DFA） method. Three multi fractal parameters （the spectrum width Aa, the asymmetry Aaas, and the long-range correlation exponent a0） of the singularity spectrum are introduced to quantify the multi-fractal behaviors. The results show that multi-frac tality exists in daily humidity records over most stations in China and is mainly due to the broad distribution of the probability density of the sequence values. Strong multi fractal behaviors over some stations in the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia provinces are obvious. These behaviors are mainly caused by different long range correlations between large and small fluctuations. The asymmetry of the singularity of relative humidity records is weak, except for a small number of stations in the far east and west of China, where the singularity spec trum is left-skewed. Finally, the long-range correlations in North China are stronger than those in South China, which indicates better predictability in North China. By studying the parameters of the multi-fractal spectrum, various data of long-range power law correlations of the relative humidity records are obtained, which may pro vide theoretical support for climate prediction.
