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基于Gibbs抽样算法的造纸工艺能源消耗预测模型仿真研究 被引量:1
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作者 谢娜 《造纸科学与技术》 2020年第3期68-72,共5页
针对造纸工艺能源消耗预测模型效果不佳的整体现象,基于Gibbs抽样算法设计了造纸工艺能源消耗预测模型,通过以贝叶斯参数估计为载体的马尔科夫蒙特卡洛算法优化传统预测模型,以能源消耗数据特性合理选择最佳先验分布,生成与目标分布要... 针对造纸工艺能源消耗预测模型效果不佳的整体现象,基于Gibbs抽样算法设计了造纸工艺能源消耗预测模型,通过以贝叶斯参数估计为载体的马尔科夫蒙特卡洛算法优化传统预测模型,以能源消耗数据特性合理选择最佳先验分布,生成与目标分布要求相符的马氏链,以Gibbs抽样算法进行参数后验分布均值提取分析,当作模型参数估计值。同时进行模型仿真试验验证,结果表明,优化前模型与优化后模型预测值都可准确拟合真实值,但是就整体拟合效果来讲,贝叶斯参数估计算法能源消耗预测模型的效果更优;且贝叶斯参数估计算法能源消耗预测模型的预测精确度较高,平均绝对百分误差相对更小。 展开更多
关键词 Gibbs抽样算 贝叶斯参数估计法 造纸工艺 能源消耗 预测模型
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Improved seismoacoustic analysis model and its application to source parameter inversion of near-surface small-yield chemical explosions 被引量:4
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作者 Zhang Liang-Yong Li Xin +4 位作者 Liang Xu-Bin Wang Tong-Dong Tang Shi-Ying Zhang De-Zhi Zeng Xin-Wu 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第1期17-30,128,共15页
The seismoacoustic analysis method has broad potential applications to source parameter estimation for near-surface explosion events such as industrial explosions and terrorist attacks.In this study,current models wer... The seismoacoustic analysis method has broad potential applications to source parameter estimation for near-surface explosion events such as industrial explosions and terrorist attacks.In this study,current models were improved by modifying the acoustic model and adopting the Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion method.The source parameters of near-surface small-yield chemical explosions were analyzed via the improved seismoacoustic analysis model and by the estimation accuracy of seismoacoustic joint inversion.Estimation and analysis results showed that the improved seismoacoustic analysis model considered ground shock coupling and the impact of explosion products ejecting from the surface so that the improved acoustic impulse relation was more consistent with the measured data than the Ford impulse relation.It is suitable for deep-burial,shallow-burial,and near-surface aerial explosions.Furthermore,trade-off relationships were declined through the application of the improved model to source parameter inversion for near-surface small-yield chemical explosions,and source parameter estimation accuracy was improved. 展开更多
关键词 Near-surface chemical explosion small yield seismoacoustic analysis estimation of source parameters Bayesian MCMC method.
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