[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling plantho...[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.展开更多
To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the ...To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the speed characteristics at the starting,mid,and end points of a plane curve were observed on Lalin Highway and China National Highway 318 with Bushnell s handheld radar speedometer 10-1911CN.Second,the stepwise regression method was proposed to determine the significant parameters and propose the prediction models of the operating speed of cars and large vehicles for the two highways.Finally,reserved test group data were utilized to prove the validity and practicality of the proposed models.Compared with traditional methods,the established models can produce more accurate prediction results and deeply examine the nonlinear relationships between parameters and the predicted operating speed.This study provides a considerate direction and basis for the operating speed prediction model for other segments in plateau regions.展开更多
基金Supported by Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest(200903051)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric cir- culation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year, and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage. [Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models. [Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plan-thopper were selected. Two types of prediction models were established. One was for Sogatella furcifera （Horvath）, based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year, Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year, North America subtropical high index in August in that year, Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year, northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year, Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens （Stal）, based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year, northern hemi- sphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year, Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year, north boundary of North America-At- lantic subtropical high in September in that year, north boundary of North Africa-At- lantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year, sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year. [Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51768063,51868068)。
文摘To examine the influence of the harsh environment in plateau areas on the operating speed of vehicles,advanced speed prediction models for curved segments are established based on observed actual speed data.First,the speed characteristics at the starting,mid,and end points of a plane curve were observed on Lalin Highway and China National Highway 318 with Bushnell s handheld radar speedometer 10-1911CN.Second,the stepwise regression method was proposed to determine the significant parameters and propose the prediction models of the operating speed of cars and large vehicles for the two highways.Finally,reserved test group data were utilized to prove the validity and practicality of the proposed models.Compared with traditional methods,the established models can produce more accurate prediction results and deeply examine the nonlinear relationships between parameters and the predicted operating speed.This study provides a considerate direction and basis for the operating speed prediction model for other segments in plateau regions.
