Different models have been proposed in corporate finance literature for predicting the risk of firm＇s bankruptcy and insolvency. In spite of the large amount of empirical findings, significant issues are still unsolv...Different models have been proposed in corporate finance literature for predicting the risk of firm＇s bankruptcy and insolvency. In spite of the large amount of empirical findings, significant issues are still unsolved. In this paper, the authors developed dynamic statistical models for bankruptcy prediction of Italian firms in the industrial sector by using financial indicators. The model specification has been obtained via different variable selection techniques, and the predictive accuracy of the proposed default risk models has been evaluated at various horizons by means of different accuracy measures. The reached results give evidence that dynamic models have a better performance in any of the considered scenarios.展开更多
The Limu tin deposits located in the Nanling tin and tungsten-polymetallic ore belt are now facing resource depletion after decades of exploitation.Peripheral mineral exploration therefore has become an urgent task.Us...The Limu tin deposits located in the Nanling tin and tungsten-polymetallic ore belt are now facing resource depletion after decades of exploitation.Peripheral mineral exploration therefore has become an urgent task.Using mineral exploration around the Limu crisis mines as an example,we introduce a breakthrough method of how the three-field theory,i.e.,the material,energy and spatial fields,is applied to intensively studies areas,a history of years of mineral exploitation and complex ore-forming systems.Taking a cue from Limu regional metallogeny,we based our investigation on the metallogenic information from geology,geophysics,geochemistry and remote sensing.We conducted our study of the three-field integrated information system,associated with metallogenic prognoses from deposits,with assignments and calculations which correct and allocate synthetic metallogenic prognosis by relying on GIS.We submitted a synthetic metallogenic prognosis map of tin in Limu where we delineated three ore target areas.A breakthrough was achieved by finding about 4785 t of tin metal outside the Shiziling deposit,which has been confirmed by drilling.The successful application in Limu shows that this three-field theory is of scientific and practical importance and deserves to be extended to utilization.展开更多
A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are i...A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.展开更多
文摘Different models have been proposed in corporate finance literature for predicting the risk of firm＇s bankruptcy and insolvency. In spite of the large amount of empirical findings, significant issues are still unsolved. In this paper, the authors developed dynamic statistical models for bankruptcy prediction of Italian firms in the industrial sector by using financial indicators. The model specification has been obtained via different variable selection techniques, and the predictive accuracy of the proposed default risk models has been evaluated at various horizons by means of different accuracy measures. The reached results give evidence that dynamic models have a better performance in any of the considered scenarios.
文摘The Limu tin deposits located in the Nanling tin and tungsten-polymetallic ore belt are now facing resource depletion after decades of exploitation.Peripheral mineral exploration therefore has become an urgent task.Using mineral exploration around the Limu crisis mines as an example,we introduce a breakthrough method of how the three-field theory,i.e.,the material,energy and spatial fields,is applied to intensively studies areas,a history of years of mineral exploitation and complex ore-forming systems.Taking a cue from Limu regional metallogeny,we based our investigation on the metallogenic information from geology,geophysics,geochemistry and remote sensing.We conducted our study of the three-field integrated information system,associated with metallogenic prognoses from deposits,with assignments and calculations which correct and allocate synthetic metallogenic prognosis by relying on GIS.We submitted a synthetic metallogenic prognosis map of tin in Limu where we delineated three ore target areas.A breakthrough was achieved by finding about 4785 t of tin metal outside the Shiziling deposit,which has been confirmed by drilling.The successful application in Limu shows that this three-field theory is of scientific and practical importance and deserves to be extended to utilization.
基金supported by the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(Grant No.2007BAC29B05)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-Q03-3)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41001021)
文摘A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.
