基于ADCIRC水动力模型构建了一个适用南海海域的精细化风暴潮预报模型,选用Holland模型提供强迫风场和气压场,开边界潮位采用OTIS(Oregon State University Tidal Inversion Software)的全球潮汐数据结果。选取造成广东省沿海产生严重...基于ADCIRC水动力模型构建了一个适用南海海域的精细化风暴潮预报模型,选用Holland模型提供强迫风场和气压场,开边界潮位采用OTIS(Oregon State University Tidal Inversion Software)的全球潮汐数据结果。选取造成广东省沿海产生严重风暴潮的201319号“天兔”、201415号“海鸥”和201713号“天鸽”等5个典型台风,利用该模型计算台风登陆期间严重影响岸段潮位站的逐时潮位过程,并与实测水位进行比对分析。结果显示:总体上各岸段潮位过程预报平均绝对误差在30 cm以内,计算与实测的高潮位绝对误差满足规范许可误差要求,可为广东省沿海台风暴潮的预警预报提供技术支撑。展开更多
In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation ...In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.展开更多
An elliptical wind field model of typhoons is put forward based on the characteristics of the typhoon wind fields occurring in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. By contrasting it with the circular typhoon wind field model...An elliptical wind field model of typhoons is put forward based on the characteristics of the typhoon wind fields occurring in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. By contrasting it with the circular typhoon wind field model, it is found that the elliptical model can adequately represent the real wind field and trace the process of a typhoon storm surge. The numerically simulated results of storm surges by using the elliptical model are in good agreement with the observations and markedly better than those by using the circular model.展开更多
To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We appl...To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.展开更多
Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the p...Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.展开更多
This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） usi...This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.展开更多
文摘基于ADCIRC水动力模型构建了一个适用南海海域的精细化风暴潮预报模型,选用Holland模型提供强迫风场和气压场,开边界潮位采用OTIS(Oregon State University Tidal Inversion Software)的全球潮汐数据结果。选取造成广东省沿海产生严重风暴潮的201319号“天兔”、201415号“海鸥”和201713号“天鸽”等5个典型台风,利用该模型计算台风登陆期间严重影响岸段潮位站的逐时潮位过程,并与实测水位进行比对分析。结果显示:总体上各岸段潮位过程预报平均绝对误差在30 cm以内,计算与实测的高潮位绝对误差满足规范许可误差要求,可为广东省沿海台风暴潮的预警预报提供技术支撑。
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51209040,51279134)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2012341)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.SJLX_0087)the Research Fund of Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute(No.Y213012)
文摘In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.
基金supported by the Nationa1 High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(Grant No.2002AA639370)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.Q99E02)the Special Fund of Excellent Ph.D Dissertation(200021).
文摘An elliptical wind field model of typhoons is put forward based on the characteristics of the typhoon wind fields occurring in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. By contrasting it with the circular typhoon wind field model, it is found that the elliptical model can adequately represent the real wind field and trace the process of a typhoon storm surge. The numerically simulated results of storm surges by using the elliptical model are in good agreement with the observations and markedly better than those by using the circular model.
基金Supported by National Marine Public Scientific Research Fund of China(No. 200905010)the Talent Training Fund Project for Basic Sciences of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. J0730534)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Open Research Funding Program of KLGIS (No. KLGIS2011A12)the Open Fund from Key Laboratory of Marine Management Technique of State Oceanic Administration (No. 201112)
文摘To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.
基金Supported by the MISSION 908 (Nos. 908-02-03-07, SD-908-02-08)
文摘Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.
文摘This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.
