To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evalu...To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.展开更多
Food and non-alcoholic beverages are highly important for individuals to continue staying alive and living healthy lives. The increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced across the world ove...Food and non-alcoholic beverages are highly important for individuals to continue staying alive and living healthy lives. The increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced across the world over years has continued to make food and non-alcoholic beverages not to be accessible and affordable to individuals and families having a low income. The aim of this particular research study was to identify how Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages could be modelled using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting future values for the next two years. The data used for the study was that of Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages for the period starting from February 2009 to April 2024 obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database. The best specification for the ARIMA model was identified using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and assessing whether residuals of the model were independent and normally distributed with a variance that is constant an whether the model has most of its coefficients being significant statistically. ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (1, 0, 0) model was identified as the best ARIMA model for modeling Kenya’s CPI of food and non-beverages for forecasting future values among the ARIMA models considered. Using this particular model, Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages was forecasted to increase only slightly with time to reach a value of about 165.70 by March 2026.展开更多
With a growing population, an increasing number of petrochemical facilities are built with larger capacity and more complexity, which pose a great risk to assets, community and environment. The value of inherently saf...With a growing population, an increasing number of petrochemical facilities are built with larger capacity and more complexity, which pose a great risk to assets, community and environment. The value of inherently safer design is recognized with time by all stakeholders, and an effective tool is needed to evaluate and compare inherent safety of alternative technologies. This study developed a safety index to evaluate existing technologies for their safety levels and guide inherently safer design. The Integrated Risk-based Safety Index(IRSI) was developed based on a comprehensive review of petrochemical processes, incident cases from Sinopec and US Chemical Safety Board, and existing safety index systems. The IRSI included all major hazards, including fire, explosion,toxic release, dust explosion, physical explosion, and runaway. Also, the integrated life cycle approach considered chemical hazards, equipment failure rates and safety measures in this risk-based index. Advanced modeling techniques, PHAST simulation and Neural Network, were used in the development of three novel sub-indices in the projects, fire, explosion and toxic release. The index system could be easily incorporated into a user friendly tool for the ease of application. A case study of hydrogen dioxide was conducted using the IRSI, which showed its capability for evaluating the safety level of process facilities.展开更多
Taking the affinity between events and media as a conceptualization base, a total of 1032 related news re-ports of Expo '99 Kunming, gathered from the internet data bank of China INFOBANK from 1992 to 2003, are us...Taking the affinity between events and media as a conceptualization base, a total of 1032 related news re-ports of Expo '99 Kunming, gathered from the internet data bank of China INFOBANK from 1992 to 2003, are used as data sources. After classifying them with a communication research method-the content analysis, a data bank for SPSS is set up, and a mathematic model called the Integrated Impact Index of Expo '99 Kunming is constituted. With the model, the spatial distribution of the total integrated impacts of Expo '99 Kunming on the regions or cities with different regional scales is analysed quantitatively. The conclusions are: 1) the Expo '99 Kunming made obvious integrated impacts on the regions or cities of every scale, especially in the venue city and the region-Kunming City and Yunnan Province; 2) it had corresponding impacts on other provinces; 3) the spatial distribution of Integrated Impact Index had a disaggregation with both plane extension and spotted decentralization; and 4) there was a distance decay law in all three scales of regions (Kunming City, Yunnan Province and the whole China), which incarnated the spatial extension law of the integrated impact of a special mega-event.展开更多
---Double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory （DDR3） has become one of the most mainstream applications in current server and computer systems. In order to quickly set up a system-level signal integri...---Double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory （DDR3） has become one of the most mainstream applications in current server and computer systems. In order to quickly set up a system-level signal integrity （SI） simulation flow for the DDR3 interface, two system-level SI simulation methodologies, which are board-level S-parameter extraction in the frequency-domain and system-level simulation assumptions in the time domain, are introduced in this paper. By comparing the flow of Speed2000 and PowerSI/Hspice, PowerSI is chosen for the printed circuit board （PCB） board-level S-parameter extraction, while Tektronix oscilloscope （TDS7404） is used for the DDR3 waveform measurement. The lab measurement shows good agreement between simulation and measurement. The study shows that the combination of PowerSI and Hspice is recommended for quick system-level DDR3 SI simulation.展开更多
An integrated cotton fiber quality index （ICFQI） model with cotton fiber qualities which can directly express cotton fiber integrated quality and spinning yarn quality was studied. The fiber length, strength, Micron...An integrated cotton fiber quality index （ICFQI） model with cotton fiber qualities which can directly express cotton fiber integrated quality and spinning yarn quality was studied. The fiber length, strength, Micronalre （fiber fineness and fiber maturity）, uniformity of fiber length, and short fiber content are the pivotal indexes expressing ICFQI. All of the results above are the basic knowledge to build up the models of ICFQI. According to spinning consistency index （SCI）, spinning strength and spinning yarn integrated quality, ICFQI was the best choice. As the methods of ICFQI had quite a lot of advantages like explicit mechanism, few independent variables. The integrated fiber quality index had a significant positive correlation with yarn strength and spinning consistency, significant negative correlation with yarn evenness and yarn thin places. In additional, the model of the relationship between ICFQI and SCI was established as： SCI=0. 235 6·ICFQI ＋56.153. It was concluded that ICFQI value was the shared reference index for the testing of fiber inspection agency and the selection and distribution of raw cotton bales by textile mills.展开更多
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of ge...Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.展开更多
This study assesses the vulnerable state of the 566-km Ivorian coastal area using the physical (geomorphology, coastal slope, coastal retreat rate, relative sea level rise and wave/Tide energy) and socio-economic (coa...This study assesses the vulnerable state of the 566-km Ivorian coastal area using the physical (geomorphology, coastal slope, coastal retreat rate, relative sea level rise and wave/Tide energy) and socio-economic (coastal population density, harbor, airport, road, land use and protected area) factors as indicators. This enabled an Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index to be determined for the Ivorian coastal zone. This Index could be defined as the weighted average of indexes based on physical and socio-economic factors. The study revealed that vulnerability of the western and the eastern coastlines of Cote d’Ivoire are strongly influenced by human activities, while physical forcing affects significantly the vulnerability of the central section. The relative vulnerability of the different sections depends also strongly on the geomorphology, wave energy, coastal population density and land use factors. The west and central sections of the coastline are more resilient than the eastern section when integrating physical and socio-economic factors. The Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index, based on physical and socio-economic factors, appears to be more appropriate for coastal vulnerability assessment. These results could be useful in the development of adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of this coastal area and then extended for West Africa Coastal Areas Management.展开更多
Urban planning often faces issues of spatial separation between blue and green spaces,as well as the lack of integration in slow traffic networks.The development and shaping of urban slow,blue,and green spaces often p...Urban planning often faces issues of spatial separation between blue and green spaces,as well as the lack of integration in slow traffic networks.The development and shaping of urban slow,blue,and green spaces often proceed along separate paths.However,building an ecological and livable city requires the integrated development of slow,blue,and green spaces.Taking the central urban area of Wuhan as a case study,this research uses ArcGIS visualization,walking accessibility analysis,and landscape pattern index analysis methods.By overlapping slow traffic spaces with blue and green spaces,the study explores the distribution of slow,blue,and green spaces and the integration characteristics of slow+blue-green spaces,categorizing them based on walking time and spatial aggregation.The results show:1)In the central urban area of Wuhan,blue spaces are predominant in the Yangtze River basin,the Han River-Sha Lake-East Lake-South Lake,Yangchun Lake-East Lake-South Lake-Yezhi Lake,and Longyang Lake-Moshui Lake directions,with clear dominant patches,while other areas show average performance;2)Green spaces have good patch dominance and connectivity along the Qingshan Park-East Lake Greenway-Moshan-Ma anshan Forest Park;3)The integration of blue and green spaces is best along the Yangtze River,East Lake,and South Lake;4)Areas such as Sha Lake Park in Wuchang District,East Lake Scenic Area in Hongshan District,the South Lake-Yezhi Lake corridor,Moshui Lake and Longyang Lake in Hanyang District,and the northern and southern parts of the Yangtze River are characterized by better integration of slow blue-green spaces.Through the overlay analysis of walking accessibility and landscape pattern indices of blue-green spaces,the study significantly reflects the integration characteristics of slow blue-green spaces in Wuhan s central urban area.This research aims to provide references for the planning and design of urban slow blue-green spaces and the construction of livable and ecological cities,offering practical guidance for creating a healthy urban ecological living environment and for urban ecosystem restoration and management.展开更多
文摘To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.
文摘Food and non-alcoholic beverages are highly important for individuals to continue staying alive and living healthy lives. The increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced across the world over years has continued to make food and non-alcoholic beverages not to be accessible and affordable to individuals and families having a low income. The aim of this particular research study was to identify how Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages could be modelled using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting future values for the next two years. The data used for the study was that of Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages for the period starting from February 2009 to April 2024 obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database. The best specification for the ARIMA model was identified using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and assessing whether residuals of the model were independent and normally distributed with a variance that is constant an whether the model has most of its coefficients being significant statistically. ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (1, 0, 0) model was identified as the best ARIMA model for modeling Kenya’s CPI of food and non-beverages for forecasting future values among the ARIMA models considered. Using this particular model, Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages was forecasted to increase only slightly with time to reach a value of about 165.70 by March 2026.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0301701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(21606258).
文摘With a growing population, an increasing number of petrochemical facilities are built with larger capacity and more complexity, which pose a great risk to assets, community and environment. The value of inherently safer design is recognized with time by all stakeholders, and an effective tool is needed to evaluate and compare inherent safety of alternative technologies. This study developed a safety index to evaluate existing technologies for their safety levels and guide inherently safer design. The Integrated Risk-based Safety Index(IRSI) was developed based on a comprehensive review of petrochemical processes, incident cases from Sinopec and US Chemical Safety Board, and existing safety index systems. The IRSI included all major hazards, including fire, explosion,toxic release, dust explosion, physical explosion, and runaway. Also, the integrated life cycle approach considered chemical hazards, equipment failure rates and safety measures in this risk-based index. Advanced modeling techniques, PHAST simulation and Neural Network, were used in the development of three novel sub-indices in the projects, fire, explosion and toxic release. The index system could be easily incorporated into a user friendly tool for the ease of application. A case study of hydrogen dioxide was conducted using the IRSI, which showed its capability for evaluating the safety level of process facilities.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No 40171027)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (No 5301104)Soft Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (No 2005B70101058)
文摘Taking the affinity between events and media as a conceptualization base, a total of 1032 related news re-ports of Expo '99 Kunming, gathered from the internet data bank of China INFOBANK from 1992 to 2003, are used as data sources. After classifying them with a communication research method-the content analysis, a data bank for SPSS is set up, and a mathematic model called the Integrated Impact Index of Expo '99 Kunming is constituted. With the model, the spatial distribution of the total integrated impacts of Expo '99 Kunming on the regions or cities with different regional scales is analysed quantitatively. The conclusions are: 1) the Expo '99 Kunming made obvious integrated impacts on the regions or cities of every scale, especially in the venue city and the region-Kunming City and Yunnan Province; 2) it had corresponding impacts on other provinces; 3) the spatial distribution of Integrated Impact Index had a disaggregation with both plane extension and spotted decentralization; and 4) there was a distance decay law in all three scales of regions (Kunming City, Yunnan Province and the whole China), which incarnated the spatial extension law of the integrated impact of a special mega-event.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61161001
文摘---Double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory （DDR3） has become one of the most mainstream applications in current server and computer systems. In order to quickly set up a system-level signal integrity （SI） simulation flow for the DDR3 interface, two system-level SI simulation methodologies, which are board-level S-parameter extraction in the frequency-domain and system-level simulation assumptions in the time domain, are introduced in this paper. By comparing the flow of Speed2000 and PowerSI/Hspice, PowerSI is chosen for the printed circuit board （PCB） board-level S-parameter extraction, while Tektronix oscilloscope （TDS7404） is used for the DDR3 waveform measurement. The lab measurement shows good agreement between simulation and measurement. The study shows that the combination of PowerSI and Hspice is recommended for quick system-level DDR3 SI simulation.
基金China/CSIRO Project on Predicting Yarn Quality from Cotton Fineness and Maturity Measurements(No. 400012)
文摘An integrated cotton fiber quality index （ICFQI） model with cotton fiber qualities which can directly express cotton fiber integrated quality and spinning yarn quality was studied. The fiber length, strength, Micronalre （fiber fineness and fiber maturity）, uniformity of fiber length, and short fiber content are the pivotal indexes expressing ICFQI. All of the results above are the basic knowledge to build up the models of ICFQI. According to spinning consistency index （SCI）, spinning strength and spinning yarn integrated quality, ICFQI was the best choice. As the methods of ICFQI had quite a lot of advantages like explicit mechanism, few independent variables. The integrated fiber quality index had a significant positive correlation with yarn strength and spinning consistency, significant negative correlation with yarn evenness and yarn thin places. In additional, the model of the relationship between ICFQI and SCI was established as： SCI=0. 235 6·ICFQI ＋56.153. It was concluded that ICFQI value was the shared reference index for the testing of fiber inspection agency and the selection and distribution of raw cotton bales by textile mills.
文摘Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.
文摘This study assesses the vulnerable state of the 566-km Ivorian coastal area using the physical (geomorphology, coastal slope, coastal retreat rate, relative sea level rise and wave/Tide energy) and socio-economic (coastal population density, harbor, airport, road, land use and protected area) factors as indicators. This enabled an Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index to be determined for the Ivorian coastal zone. This Index could be defined as the weighted average of indexes based on physical and socio-economic factors. The study revealed that vulnerability of the western and the eastern coastlines of Cote d’Ivoire are strongly influenced by human activities, while physical forcing affects significantly the vulnerability of the central section. The relative vulnerability of the different sections depends also strongly on the geomorphology, wave energy, coastal population density and land use factors. The west and central sections of the coastline are more resilient than the eastern section when integrating physical and socio-economic factors. The Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index, based on physical and socio-economic factors, appears to be more appropriate for coastal vulnerability assessment. These results could be useful in the development of adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of this coastal area and then extended for West Africa Coastal Areas Management.
文摘Urban planning often faces issues of spatial separation between blue and green spaces,as well as the lack of integration in slow traffic networks.The development and shaping of urban slow,blue,and green spaces often proceed along separate paths.However,building an ecological and livable city requires the integrated development of slow,blue,and green spaces.Taking the central urban area of Wuhan as a case study,this research uses ArcGIS visualization,walking accessibility analysis,and landscape pattern index analysis methods.By overlapping slow traffic spaces with blue and green spaces,the study explores the distribution of slow,blue,and green spaces and the integration characteristics of slow+blue-green spaces,categorizing them based on walking time and spatial aggregation.The results show:1)In the central urban area of Wuhan,blue spaces are predominant in the Yangtze River basin,the Han River-Sha Lake-East Lake-South Lake,Yangchun Lake-East Lake-South Lake-Yezhi Lake,and Longyang Lake-Moshui Lake directions,with clear dominant patches,while other areas show average performance;2)Green spaces have good patch dominance and connectivity along the Qingshan Park-East Lake Greenway-Moshan-Ma anshan Forest Park;3)The integration of blue and green spaces is best along the Yangtze River,East Lake,and South Lake;4)Areas such as Sha Lake Park in Wuchang District,East Lake Scenic Area in Hongshan District,the South Lake-Yezhi Lake corridor,Moshui Lake and Longyang Lake in Hanyang District,and the northern and southern parts of the Yangtze River are characterized by better integration of slow blue-green spaces.Through the overlay analysis of walking accessibility and landscape pattern indices of blue-green spaces,the study significantly reflects the integration characteristics of slow blue-green spaces in Wuhan s central urban area.This research aims to provide references for the planning and design of urban slow blue-green spaces and the construction of livable and ecological cities,offering practical guidance for creating a healthy urban ecological living environment and for urban ecosystem restoration and management.
