To predict the behavior of geogrids embedded in sand under pullout loading conditions, the two dimensional plane-stress finite element model was presented. The interactions between soil and geogrid were simulated as ...To predict the behavior of geogrids embedded in sand under pullout loading conditions, the two dimensional plane-stress finite element model was presented. The interactions between soil and geogrid were simulated as non-linear springs, and the stiffness of the springs was determined from simple tests in the specially designed pullout box. The predicted behavior of the geogrid under pullout load agrees well with the observed data including the load-displacement properties, the displacement distribution along the longitudinal direction and the mobilization of the frictional and bearing resistance. (Edited author abstract) 8 Refs.展开更多
Terrestrial invasive alien weed plants are known to infest cultivated land, potentially releasing allelochemicals into the rhizosphere during decomposition, negatively impacting crop growth. This study aimed to evalua...Terrestrial invasive alien weed plants are known to infest cultivated land, potentially releasing allelochemicals into the rhizosphere during decomposition, negatively impacting crop growth. This study aimed to evaluate: (1) the allelopathic activity of five invasive weed species (Ageratum conyzoides, Bidens pilosa, Cecropia peltata, Tithonia diversifolia, and Chromolaena odorata) on Lactuca sativa and Phaseolus vulgaris growth;and (2) the effects of A. conyzoides rhizospheric soil on P. vulgaris seed germination. Bioassays of aqueous and leachate extracts were prepared from fresh leaves of the invasive species at concentrations of 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% to assess allelopathic effects on L. sativa and P. vulgaris seed germination. Additionally, rhizospheric soil from A. conyzoides stands was collected, processed, and applied at varied weights (0.5 - 7 kg) to P. vulgaris seeds, with germination observed over nine days. Polynomial regression analysis was applied to model the data. High-concentration extracts (75% and 100%) significantly inhibited germination, root, and shoot growth in both L. sativa and P. vulgaris (P 2 − 80.294922x3 + 41.541115x4 − 11.747532x5 + 1.8501702x6 − 0.1519795x7 + 0.0050631x8. Allelopathic effects were concentration-dependent, with roots more sensitive than shoots to the invasive extracts. L. sativa was the most susceptible, while P. vulgaris showed greater tolerance. Modelling the allelopathic impact of A. conyzoides rhizospheric soil offers valuable insight into the allelochemical dosage necessary to affect seed germination, informing potential agricultural management strategies for invasive plant control.展开更多
Coriolis effects,encompassing the dilative,compressive,and deflective manifestations,constitute pivotal considerations in the centrifugal modelling of high-speed granular run-out processes.Notably,under the deflective...Coriolis effects,encompassing the dilative,compressive,and deflective manifestations,constitute pivotal considerations in the centrifugal modelling of high-speed granular run-out processes.Notably,under the deflective Coriolis condition,the velocity component parallel to the rotational axis exerts no influence on the magnitude of Coriolis acceleration.This circumstance implies a potential mitigation of the Coriolis force's deflective impact.Regrettably,extant investigations predominantly emphasize the dilative and compressive Coriolis effects,largely neglecting the pragmatic import of the deflective Coriolis condition.In pursuit of this gap,a series of discrete element method(DEM)simulations have been conducted to scrutinize the feasibility of centrifugal modelling for dry granular run-out processes under deflective Coriolis conditions.The findings concerning the deflective Coriolis effect reveal a consistent rise in the run-out distance by 2%–16%,a modest increase in bulk flow velocity of under 4%,and a slight elevation in average flow depth by no more than 25%.These alterations display smaller dependence on the specific testing conditions due to the granular flow undergoing dual deflections in opposing directions.This underscores the significance and utility of the deflective Coriolis condition.Notably,the anticipated reduction in error in predicting the final run-out distance is substantial,potentially reaching a 150%improvement compared to predictions made under the dilative and compressive Coriolis conditions.Therefore,the deflective Coriolis condition is advised when the final run-out distance of the granular flow is the main concern.To mitigate the impact of Coriolis acceleration,a greater initial height of the granular column is recommended,with a height/width ratio exceeding 1,as the basal friction of the granular material plays a crucial role in mitigating the deflective Coriolis effect.For more transverse-uniform flow properties,the width of the granular column should be as large as possible.展开更多
The rapid expansion of tobacco farming poses a significant threat to biodiversity in Yunnan Province,China,a region known for its rich biodiversity.This study aims to understand the trade-offs between tobacco farming ...The rapid expansion of tobacco farming poses a significant threat to biodiversity in Yunnan Province,China,a region known for its rich biodiversity.This study aims to understand the trade-offs between tobacco farming and higher plant species diversity,and to identify priority counties for conservation.We employed an integrated approach combining species distribution modeling,GIS overlay analysis,and empirical spatial regression to em pirically assess the impact of tobacco farming intensity on biodiversity risk.Our findings reveal a compelling negative spatial correlation between tobacco farming expansion and higher plant species diversity.Specifically,southern counties in Wenshan and Honghe prefectures are major priority areas of conservation that exhibit signif icant spatial correlations between biodiversity risks and high tobacco farming intensity.Quantitatively,at county level,a 1%increase in tobacco farming area corresponds to a 0.094%decrease in endemic higher plant species richness across the entire province.These results underscore the need for targeted and region-specific regulations to mitigate biodiversity loss and promote sustainable development in Yunnan Province.The integrated approach used in this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the tobacco-biodiversity trade-offs,offering actionable insights for policymaking.展开更多
Reptile fauna should be considered a conservation objective,especially in respect of the impacts of climate change on their distribution and range’s dynamics.Investigating the environmental drivers of reptile species...Reptile fauna should be considered a conservation objective,especially in respect of the impacts of climate change on their distribution and range’s dynamics.Investigating the environmental drivers of reptile species richness and identifying their suitable habitats is a fundamental prerequisite to setting efficient long-term conservation measures.This study focused on geographical patterns and estimations of species richness for herpetofauna widely spread Z.vivipara,N.natrix,V.berus,A.colchica,and protected in Latvia C.austriaca,E.orbicularis,L.agilis inhabiting northern(model territory Latvia)and southern(model territory Ukraine)part of their European range.The ultimate goal was to designate a conservation network that will meet long-term goals for survival of the target species in the context of climate change.We used stacked species distribution models for creating maps depicting the distribution of species richness under current and future(by 2050)climates for marginal reptilepopulations.Using cluster analysis,we showed that this herpeto-complex can be divided into“widespread species”and“forest species”.For all forest species we predicted a climate-driven reduction in their distribution range both North(Latvia)and South(Ukraine).The most vulnerable populations of“forest species”tend to be located in the South of their range,as a consequence of northward shifts by 2050.By 2050 the greatest reduction in range is predicted for currently widely spread Z.vivipara(by 1.4 times)and V.berus(by 2.2 times).In terms of designing an effective protected-area network,these results permit to identify priority conservation areas where the full ensemble of selected reptile species can be found,and confirms the relevance of abioticmulti-factor GIS-modelling for achieving this goal.展开更多
In this work,the microstructure evolution and mechanical behavior of extruded SiC/ZA63 Mg matrix composites are investigated via combined experimental study and three-dimensionalfinite element modelling(3D FEM)based on...In this work,the microstructure evolution and mechanical behavior of extruded SiC/ZA63 Mg matrix composites are investigated via combined experimental study and three-dimensionalfinite element modelling(3D FEM)based on the actual 3D microstructure achieved by synchrotron tomography.The results show that the average grain size of composite increases from 0.57μm of 8μm-SiC/ZA63 to 8.73μm of 50μm-SiC/ZA63.The type of texture transforms from the typicalfiber texture in 8μm-SiC/ZA63 to intense basal texture in 50μm-SiC/ZA63 composite and the intensity of texture increases sharply with increase of SiC particle size.The dynamic recrystallization(DRX)mechanism is also changed with increasing SiC particle size.Experimental and simulation results verify that the strength and elongation both decrease with increase of SiC particle size.The 8μm-SiC/ZA63 composite possesses the optimal mechanical property with yield strength(YS)of 383 MPa,ultimate tensile strength(UTS)of 424 MPa and elongation of 6.3%.The outstanding mechanical property is attributed to the ultrafine grain size,high-density precipitates and dislocation,good loading transfer effect and the interface bonding between SiC and matrix,as well as the weakened basal texture.The simulation results reveal that the micro-cracks tend to initiate at the interface between SiC and matrix,and then propagate along the interface between particle and Mg matrix or at the high strain and stress regions,and further connect with other micro-cracks.The main fracture mechanism in 8μm-SiC/ZA63 composite is ductile damage of matrix and interfacial debonding.With the increase of particle size,interface strength and particle strength decrease,and interface debonding and particle rupture become the main fracture mechanism in the 30μm-and 50μm-SiC/ZA63 composites.展开更多
A finite-element model of the thermosetting epoxy asphalt mixture（EAM） microstructure is developed to simulate the indirect tension test（IDT）.Image techniques are used to capture the EAM microstructure which is di...A finite-element model of the thermosetting epoxy asphalt mixture（EAM） microstructure is developed to simulate the indirect tension test（IDT）.Image techniques are used to capture the EAM microstructure which is divided into two phases：aggregates and mastic.A viscoelastic constitutive relationship,which is obtained from the results of a creep test,is used to represent the mastic phase at intermittent temperatures.Model simulation results of the stiffness modulus in IDT compare favorably with experimental data.Different loading directions and velocities are employed in order to account for their influence on the modulus and the localized stress of the microstructure model.It is pointed out that the modulus is not consistent when the loading direction changes since the heterogeneous distribution of the mixture internal structure,and the loading velocity affects the localized stress as a result of the viscoelasticity of the mastic.The study results can provide a theoretical basis for the finite-element method,which can be extended to the numerical simulations of asphalt mixture micromechanical behavior.展开更多
The perfectly matched layer （PML） is a highly efficient absorbing boundary condition used for the numerical modeling of seismic wave equation. The article focuses on the application of this technique to finite-eleme...The perfectly matched layer （PML） is a highly efficient absorbing boundary condition used for the numerical modeling of seismic wave equation. The article focuses on the application of this technique to finite-element time-domain numerical modeling of elastic wave equation. However, the finite-element time-domain scheme is based on the second- order wave equation in displacement formulation. Thus, the first-order PML in velocity-stress formulation cannot be directly applied to this scheme. In this article, we derive the finite- element matrix equations of second-order PML in displacement formulation, and accomplish the implementation of PML in finite-element time-domain modeling of elastic wave equation. The PML has an approximate zero reflection coefficients for bulk and surface waves in the finite-element modeling of P-SV and SH wave propagation in the 2D homogeneous elastic media. The numerical experiments using a two-layer model with irregular topography validate the efficiency of PML in the modeling of seismic wave propagation in geological models with complex structures and heterogeneous media.展开更多
Scalar CSAMT is only suitable for measurements in one and two dimensions perpendicular to geological structures. For complex 3D geoelectric structure, tensor CSAMT is more suitable. In this paper, we discuss 3D tensor...Scalar CSAMT is only suitable for measurements in one and two dimensions perpendicular to geological structures. For complex 3D geoelectric structure, tensor CSAMT is more suitable. In this paper, we discuss 3D tensor CSAMT forward modeling using the vector finite-element method. To verify the feasibility of the algorithm, we calculate the electric field, magnetic field, and tensor impedance of the 3D CSAMT far-zone field in layered media and compare them with theoretical solutions. In addition, a three-dimensional anomaly in half-space is also simulated, and the response characteristics of the impedance tensor and the apparent resistivity and impedance phase are analyzed. The results suggest that the vector finite-element method produces high-precision electromagnetic field and impedance tensor data, satisfies the electric field discontinuity, and does not require divergence correction using the vector finite-element method.展开更多
The conventional finite-element（FE） method often uses a structured mesh, which is designed according to the user’s experience, and it is not sufficiently accurate and flexible to accommodate complex structures such...The conventional finite-element（FE） method often uses a structured mesh, which is designed according to the user’s experience, and it is not sufficiently accurate and flexible to accommodate complex structures such as dipping interfaces and rough topography. We present an adaptive FE method for 2.5D forward modeling of induced polarization（IP）. In the presented method, an unstructured triangulation mesh that allows for local mesh refinement and flexible description of arbitrary model geometries is used. Furthermore, the mesh refinement process is guided by dual error estimate weighting to bias the refinement towards elements that affect the solution at the receiver locations. After the final mesh is generated, the Jacobian matrix is used to obtain the IP response on 2D structure models. We validate the adaptive FE algorithm using a vertical contact model. The validation shows that the elements near the receivers are highly refined and the average relative error of the potentials converges to 0.4 % and 1.2 % for the IP response. This suggests that the numerical solution of the adaptive FE algorithm converges to an accurate solution with the refined mesh. Finally, the accuracy and flexibility of the adaptive FE procedure are also validated using more complex models.展开更多
Three-dimensional forward modeling magnetotellurics （MT） problems. We present a is a challenge for geometrically complex new edge-based finite-element algorithm using an unstructured mesh for accurately and efficien...Three-dimensional forward modeling magnetotellurics （MT） problems. We present a is a challenge for geometrically complex new edge-based finite-element algorithm using an unstructured mesh for accurately and efficiently simulating 3D MT responses. The electric field curl-curl equation in the frequency domain was used to deduce the H （curl） variation weak form of the MT forward problem, the Galerkin rule was used to derive a linear finite-element equation on the linear-edge tetrahedroid space, and, finally, a BI-CGSTAB solver was used to estimate the unknown electric fields. A local mesh refinement technique in the neighbor of the measuring MT stations was used to greatly improve the accuracies of the numerical solutions. Four synthetic models validated the powerful performance of our algorithms. We believe that our method will effectively contribute to processing more complex MT studies.展开更多
Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation ...Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.展开更多
A modeling tool for simulating three-dimensional land frequency-domain controlled-source electromagnetic surveys,based on a finite-element discretization of the Helmholtz equation for the electric fields,has been deve...A modeling tool for simulating three-dimensional land frequency-domain controlled-source electromagnetic surveys,based on a finite-element discretization of the Helmholtz equation for the electric fields,has been developed.The main difference between our modeling method and those previous works is edge finite-element approach applied to solving the three-dimensional land frequency-domain electromagnetic responses generated by horizontal electric dipole source.Firstly,the edge finite-element equation is formulated through the Galerkin method based on Helmholtz equation of the electric fields.Secondly,in order to check the validity of the modeling code,the numerical results are compared with the analytical solutions for a homogeneous half-space model.Finally,other three models are simulated with three-dimensional electromagnetic responses.The results indicate that the method can be applied for solving three-dimensional electromagnetic responses.The algorithm has been demonstrated,which can be effective to modeling the complex geo-electrical structures.This efficient algorithm will help to study the distribution laws of3-D land frequency-domain controlled-source electromagnetic responses and to setup basis for research of three-dimensional inversion.展开更多
Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations...Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.展开更多
Stresses in a block around a dipping fracture simulating a damage zone of a fault are reconstructed by finite-element modeling. A fracture corresponding to a fault of different lengths, with its plane dipping at diffe...Stresses in a block around a dipping fracture simulating a damage zone of a fault are reconstructed by finite-element modeling. A fracture corresponding to a fault of different lengths, with its plane dipping at different angles, is assumed to follow a lithological interface and to experience either compression or shear. The stress associated with the destruction shows an asymmetrical pattern with different distances from the highest stress sites to the fault plane in the hanging and foot walls. As the dip angle decreases,the high-stress zone becomes wider in the hanging wall but its width changes negligibly in the foot wall.The length of the simulated fault and the deformation type affect only the magnitude of maximum stress,which remains asymmetrical relative to the fault plane. The Lh/Lfratio, where Lhand Lfare the widths of high-stress zones in the hanging and foot walls of the fault, respectively, is inversely proportional to the fault plane dip. The arithmetic mean of this ratio over different fault lengths in fractures subject to compression changes from 0.29 at a dip of 80°to 1.67 at 30°. In the case of shift displacement, ratios are increasing to 1.2 and 2.94, respectively.Usually they consider vertical fault planes and symmetry in a damage zone of faults. Following that assumption may cause errors in reconstructions of stress and fault patterns in areas of complex structural setting. According geological data, we know the structures are different and asymmetric in hanging and foot walls of fault. Thus, it is important to quantify zones of that asymmetry. The modeling results have to be taken into account in studies of natural faults, especially for practical applications in seismic risk mapping, engineering geology, hydrogeology, and tectonics.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML （H-PML） combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML （C-PML） with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML （M-PML）. The H-PML boundary conditions can be...In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML （H-PML） combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML （C-PML） with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML （M-PML）. The H-PML boundary conditions can better suppress the numerical instability in some extreme models, and the computational speed of finite-element method and the dynamic range are greatly increased using this HPML. We use the finite-element method with a hybrid PML to model the acoustic reflection of the interface when wireline and well logging while drilling （LWD）, in a formation with a reflector outside the borehole. The simulation results suggests that the PS- and SP- reflected waves arrive at the same time when the inclination between the well and the outer interface is zero, and the difference in arrival times increases with increasing dip angle. When there are fractures outside the well, the reflection signal is clearer in the subsequent reflection waves and may be used to identify the fractured zone. The difference between the dominant wavelength and the model scale shows that LWD reflection logging data are of higher resolution and quality than wireline acoustic reflection logging.展开更多
Underground pumped storage power plant(UPSP)is an innovative concept for space recycling of abandoned mines.Its realization requires better understanding of the dynamic performance and durability of reservoir rock.Thi...Underground pumped storage power plant(UPSP)is an innovative concept for space recycling of abandoned mines.Its realization requires better understanding of the dynamic performance and durability of reservoir rock.This paper conducted ultrasonic detection,split Hopkinson pressure bar(SHPB)impact,mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP),and backscatter electron observation(BSE)tests to investigate the dynamical behaviour and microstructure of sandstone with cyclical dry-wet damage.A coupling FEM-DEM model was constructed for reappearing mesoscopic structure damage.The results show that dry-wet cycles decrease the dynamic compressive strength(DCS)with a maximum reduction of 39.40%,the elastic limit strength is reduced from 41.75 to 25.62 MPa.The sieved fragments obtain the highest crack growth rate during the 23rd dry-wet cycle with a predictable life of 25 cycles for each rock particle.The pore fractal features of the macropores and micro-meso pores show great differences between the early and late cycles,which verifies the computational statistics analysis of particle deterioration.The numerical results show that the failure patterns are governed by the strain in pre-peak stage and the shear cracks are dominant.The dry-wet cycles reduce the energy transfer efficiency and lead to the discretization of force chain and crack fields.展开更多
A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballist...A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballistics is to estimate the gas pressure into the combustion chamber and the projectile muzzle velocity in order to use the propellant to its higher efficiency while avoiding over-pressure phenomena. Dealing with the internal ballistic problem is a complex undertaking since it requires handling the interaction between different constituents during a transient time lapse with very steep rise of pressure and temperature. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on different assumptions and techniques. Generally, depending on the used mathematical framework, they can be classified into two categories: computational fluid dynamics-based models and lumped-parameter ones. By focusing on gun systems, this paper offers a review of the main contributions in the field by mentioning their advantages and drawbacks. An insight into the limitations of the currently available modelling strategies is provided,as well as some considerations on the choice of one model over another. Lumped-parameter models, for example, are a good candidate for performing parametric analysis and optimisation processes of gun systems, given their minimum requirements of computer resources. Conversely, CFD-based models have a better capacity to address more sophisticated phenomena like pressure waves and turbulent flow effects. The performed review also reveals that too little attention has been given to small calibre guns since the majority of currently available models are conceived for medium and large calibre gun systems.Similarly, aspects like wear phenomena, bore deformations or projectile-barrel interactions still need to be adequately addressed and our suggestion is to dedicate more effort on it.展开更多
In recent years,there has been a growing interest in using artificial intelligence(AI)for rainfall-runoff modelling,as it has shown promising adaptability in this context.The current study involved the use of six dist...In recent years,there has been a growing interest in using artificial intelligence(AI)for rainfall-runoff modelling,as it has shown promising adaptability in this context.The current study involved the use of six distinct AI models to simulate monthly rainfall-runoff modelling in the Bardha watershed,India.These models included the artificial neural network(ANN),k-nearest neighbour regression model(KNN),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)regression model,random forest regression model(RF),convolutional neural network(CNN),and CNN-RNN(convolutional recurrent neural network).The years 2003-2007 are classified as the calibration or training period,while the years 2008-2009 are classified as the validation or testing period for the span of time 2003 to 2009.The available rainfall,maximum and minimum temperatures,and discharge data were collected and utilized in the models.To compare the performance of the models,five criteria were employed:R^(2),NSE,MAE,RMSE,and PBIAS.The CNN-RNN model simulates the rainfall-runoff model in the Bardha watershed best in both the training and testing periods(training:R^(2) is 0.99,NSE is 0.99,MAE is 1.76,RMSE is 3.11,and PBIAS is1.45;testing:R^(2) is 0.97,NSE is 0.97,MAE is 2.05,RMSE is 3.60,and PBIAS is3.94).These results demonstrate the superior performance of the CNN-RNN model in simulating monthly rainfall-runoff modelling when compared to the other models used in the study.The findings suggest that the CNN-RNN model could be a valuable tool for various applications related to sustainable water resource management,flood control,and environmental planning.展开更多
Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate c...Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.展开更多
文摘To predict the behavior of geogrids embedded in sand under pullout loading conditions, the two dimensional plane-stress finite element model was presented. The interactions between soil and geogrid were simulated as non-linear springs, and the stiffness of the springs was determined from simple tests in the specially designed pullout box. The predicted behavior of the geogrid under pullout load agrees well with the observed data including the load-displacement properties, the displacement distribution along the longitudinal direction and the mobilization of the frictional and bearing resistance. (Edited author abstract) 8 Refs.
文摘Terrestrial invasive alien weed plants are known to infest cultivated land, potentially releasing allelochemicals into the rhizosphere during decomposition, negatively impacting crop growth. This study aimed to evaluate: (1) the allelopathic activity of five invasive weed species (Ageratum conyzoides, Bidens pilosa, Cecropia peltata, Tithonia diversifolia, and Chromolaena odorata) on Lactuca sativa and Phaseolus vulgaris growth;and (2) the effects of A. conyzoides rhizospheric soil on P. vulgaris seed germination. Bioassays of aqueous and leachate extracts were prepared from fresh leaves of the invasive species at concentrations of 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% to assess allelopathic effects on L. sativa and P. vulgaris seed germination. Additionally, rhizospheric soil from A. conyzoides stands was collected, processed, and applied at varied weights (0.5 - 7 kg) to P. vulgaris seeds, with germination observed over nine days. Polynomial regression analysis was applied to model the data. High-concentration extracts (75% and 100%) significantly inhibited germination, root, and shoot growth in both L. sativa and P. vulgaris (P 2 − 80.294922x3 + 41.541115x4 − 11.747532x5 + 1.8501702x6 − 0.1519795x7 + 0.0050631x8. Allelopathic effects were concentration-dependent, with roots more sensitive than shoots to the invasive extracts. L. sativa was the most susceptible, while P. vulgaris showed greater tolerance. Modelling the allelopathic impact of A. conyzoides rhizospheric soil offers valuable insight into the allelochemical dosage necessary to affect seed germination, informing potential agricultural management strategies for invasive plant control.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42120104008 and 42307214)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZB20230620).
文摘Coriolis effects,encompassing the dilative,compressive,and deflective manifestations,constitute pivotal considerations in the centrifugal modelling of high-speed granular run-out processes.Notably,under the deflective Coriolis condition,the velocity component parallel to the rotational axis exerts no influence on the magnitude of Coriolis acceleration.This circumstance implies a potential mitigation of the Coriolis force's deflective impact.Regrettably,extant investigations predominantly emphasize the dilative and compressive Coriolis effects,largely neglecting the pragmatic import of the deflective Coriolis condition.In pursuit of this gap,a series of discrete element method(DEM)simulations have been conducted to scrutinize the feasibility of centrifugal modelling for dry granular run-out processes under deflective Coriolis conditions.The findings concerning the deflective Coriolis effect reveal a consistent rise in the run-out distance by 2%–16%,a modest increase in bulk flow velocity of under 4%,and a slight elevation in average flow depth by no more than 25%.These alterations display smaller dependence on the specific testing conditions due to the granular flow undergoing dual deflections in opposing directions.This underscores the significance and utility of the deflective Coriolis condition.Notably,the anticipated reduction in error in predicting the final run-out distance is substantial,potentially reaching a 150%improvement compared to predictions made under the dilative and compressive Coriolis conditions.Therefore,the deflective Coriolis condition is advised when the final run-out distance of the granular flow is the main concern.To mitigate the impact of Coriolis acceleration,a greater initial height of the granular column is recommended,with a height/width ratio exceeding 1,as the basal friction of the granular material plays a crucial role in mitigating the deflective Coriolis effect.For more transverse-uniform flow properties,the width of the granular column should be as large as possible.
文摘The rapid expansion of tobacco farming poses a significant threat to biodiversity in Yunnan Province,China,a region known for its rich biodiversity.This study aims to understand the trade-offs between tobacco farming and higher plant species diversity,and to identify priority counties for conservation.We employed an integrated approach combining species distribution modeling,GIS overlay analysis,and empirical spatial regression to em pirically assess the impact of tobacco farming intensity on biodiversity risk.Our findings reveal a compelling negative spatial correlation between tobacco farming expansion and higher plant species diversity.Specifically,southern counties in Wenshan and Honghe prefectures are major priority areas of conservation that exhibit signif icant spatial correlations between biodiversity risks and high tobacco farming intensity.Quantitatively,at county level,a 1%increase in tobacco farming area corresponds to a 0.094%decrease in endemic higher plant species richness across the entire province.These results underscore the need for targeted and region-specific regulations to mitigate biodiversity loss and promote sustainable development in Yunnan Province.The integrated approach used in this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the tobacco-biodiversity trade-offs,offering actionable insights for policymaking.
文摘Reptile fauna should be considered a conservation objective,especially in respect of the impacts of climate change on their distribution and range’s dynamics.Investigating the environmental drivers of reptile species richness and identifying their suitable habitats is a fundamental prerequisite to setting efficient long-term conservation measures.This study focused on geographical patterns and estimations of species richness for herpetofauna widely spread Z.vivipara,N.natrix,V.berus,A.colchica,and protected in Latvia C.austriaca,E.orbicularis,L.agilis inhabiting northern(model territory Latvia)and southern(model territory Ukraine)part of their European range.The ultimate goal was to designate a conservation network that will meet long-term goals for survival of the target species in the context of climate change.We used stacked species distribution models for creating maps depicting the distribution of species richness under current and future(by 2050)climates for marginal reptilepopulations.Using cluster analysis,we showed that this herpeto-complex can be divided into“widespread species”and“forest species”.For all forest species we predicted a climate-driven reduction in their distribution range both North(Latvia)and South(Ukraine).The most vulnerable populations of“forest species”tend to be located in the South of their range,as a consequence of northward shifts by 2050.By 2050 the greatest reduction in range is predicted for currently widely spread Z.vivipara(by 1.4 times)and V.berus(by 2.2 times).In terms of designing an effective protected-area network,these results permit to identify priority conservation areas where the full ensemble of selected reptile species can be found,and confirms the relevance of abioticmulti-factor GIS-modelling for achieving this goal.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[51974058,52371005,52022017,51927801]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(DUT23YG104).
文摘In this work,the microstructure evolution and mechanical behavior of extruded SiC/ZA63 Mg matrix composites are investigated via combined experimental study and three-dimensionalfinite element modelling(3D FEM)based on the actual 3D microstructure achieved by synchrotron tomography.The results show that the average grain size of composite increases from 0.57μm of 8μm-SiC/ZA63 to 8.73μm of 50μm-SiC/ZA63.The type of texture transforms from the typicalfiber texture in 8μm-SiC/ZA63 to intense basal texture in 50μm-SiC/ZA63 composite and the intensity of texture increases sharply with increase of SiC particle size.The dynamic recrystallization(DRX)mechanism is also changed with increasing SiC particle size.Experimental and simulation results verify that the strength and elongation both decrease with increase of SiC particle size.The 8μm-SiC/ZA63 composite possesses the optimal mechanical property with yield strength(YS)of 383 MPa,ultimate tensile strength(UTS)of 424 MPa and elongation of 6.3%.The outstanding mechanical property is attributed to the ultrafine grain size,high-density precipitates and dislocation,good loading transfer effect and the interface bonding between SiC and matrix,as well as the weakened basal texture.The simulation results reveal that the micro-cracks tend to initiate at the interface between SiC and matrix,and then propagate along the interface between particle and Mg matrix or at the high strain and stress regions,and further connect with other micro-cracks.The main fracture mechanism in 8μm-SiC/ZA63 composite is ductile damage of matrix and interfacial debonding.With the increase of particle size,interface strength and particle strength decrease,and interface debonding and particle rupture become the main fracture mechanism in the 30μm-and 50μm-SiC/ZA63 composites.
基金Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(No. NCET-08-0118)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (No. 20090092110049)
文摘A finite-element model of the thermosetting epoxy asphalt mixture（EAM） microstructure is developed to simulate the indirect tension test（IDT）.Image techniques are used to capture the EAM microstructure which is divided into two phases：aggregates and mastic.A viscoelastic constitutive relationship,which is obtained from the results of a creep test,is used to represent the mastic phase at intermittent temperatures.Model simulation results of the stiffness modulus in IDT compare favorably with experimental data.Different loading directions and velocities are employed in order to account for their influence on the modulus and the localized stress of the microstructure model.It is pointed out that the modulus is not consistent when the loading direction changes since the heterogeneous distribution of the mixture internal structure,and the loading velocity affects the localized stress as a result of the viscoelasticity of the mastic.The study results can provide a theoretical basis for the finite-element method,which can be extended to the numerical simulations of asphalt mixture micromechanical behavior.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Research(Grant No.41274138)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum(Beijing)(No.KYJJ2012-05-02)
文摘The perfectly matched layer （PML） is a highly efficient absorbing boundary condition used for the numerical modeling of seismic wave equation. The article focuses on the application of this technique to finite-element time-domain numerical modeling of elastic wave equation. However, the finite-element time-domain scheme is based on the second- order wave equation in displacement formulation. Thus, the first-order PML in velocity-stress formulation cannot be directly applied to this scheme. In this article, we derive the finite- element matrix equations of second-order PML in displacement formulation, and accomplish the implementation of PML in finite-element time-domain modeling of elastic wave equation. The PML has an approximate zero reflection coefficients for bulk and surface waves in the finite-element modeling of P-SV and SH wave propagation in the 2D homogeneous elastic media. The numerical experiments using a two-layer model with irregular topography validate the efficiency of PML in the modeling of seismic wave propagation in geological models with complex structures and heterogeneous media.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41104068)the Deep Exploration in China,Sino Probe-03-05
文摘Scalar CSAMT is only suitable for measurements in one and two dimensions perpendicular to geological structures. For complex 3D geoelectric structure, tensor CSAMT is more suitable. In this paper, we discuss 3D tensor CSAMT forward modeling using the vector finite-element method. To verify the feasibility of the algorithm, we calculate the electric field, magnetic field, and tensor impedance of the 3D CSAMT far-zone field in layered media and compare them with theoretical solutions. In addition, a three-dimensional anomaly in half-space is also simulated, and the response characteristics of the impedance tensor and the apparent resistivity and impedance phase are analyzed. The results suggest that the vector finite-element method produces high-precision electromagnetic field and impedance tensor data, satisfies the electric field discontinuity, and does not require divergence correction using the vector finite-element method.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41204055,41164003,and 41104074)Opening Project(No.SMIL-2014-06) of Hubei Subsurface Multi-scale Imaging Lab(SMIL),China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)
文摘The conventional finite-element（FE） method often uses a structured mesh, which is designed according to the user’s experience, and it is not sufficiently accurate and flexible to accommodate complex structures such as dipping interfaces and rough topography. We present an adaptive FE method for 2.5D forward modeling of induced polarization（IP）. In the presented method, an unstructured triangulation mesh that allows for local mesh refinement and flexible description of arbitrary model geometries is used. Furthermore, the mesh refinement process is guided by dual error estimate weighting to bias the refinement towards elements that affect the solution at the receiver locations. After the final mesh is generated, the Jacobian matrix is used to obtain the IP response on 2D structure models. We validate the adaptive FE algorithm using a vertical contact model. The validation shows that the elements near the receivers are highly refined and the average relative error of the potentials converges to 0.4 % and 1.2 % for the IP response. This suggests that the numerical solution of the adaptive FE algorithm converges to an accurate solution with the refined mesh. Finally, the accuracy and flexibility of the adaptive FE procedure are also validated using more complex models.
基金National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 Program)(No.2006AA06Z105,2007AA06Z134)
文摘Three-dimensional forward modeling magnetotellurics （MT） problems. We present a is a challenge for geometrically complex new edge-based finite-element algorithm using an unstructured mesh for accurately and efficiently simulating 3D MT responses. The electric field curl-curl equation in the frequency domain was used to deduce the H （curl） variation weak form of the MT forward problem, the Galerkin rule was used to derive a linear finite-element equation on the linear-edge tetrahedroid space, and, finally, a BI-CGSTAB solver was used to estimate the unknown electric fields. A local mesh refinement technique in the neighbor of the measuring MT stations was used to greatly improve the accuracies of the numerical solutions. Four synthetic models validated the powerful performance of our algorithms. We believe that our method will effectively contribute to processing more complex MT studies.
文摘Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.
基金Projects(41674080,41674079)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A modeling tool for simulating three-dimensional land frequency-domain controlled-source electromagnetic surveys,based on a finite-element discretization of the Helmholtz equation for the electric fields,has been developed.The main difference between our modeling method and those previous works is edge finite-element approach applied to solving the three-dimensional land frequency-domain electromagnetic responses generated by horizontal electric dipole source.Firstly,the edge finite-element equation is formulated through the Galerkin method based on Helmholtz equation of the electric fields.Secondly,in order to check the validity of the modeling code,the numerical results are compared with the analytical solutions for a homogeneous half-space model.Finally,other three models are simulated with three-dimensional electromagnetic responses.The results indicate that the method can be applied for solving three-dimensional electromagnetic responses.The algorithm has been demonstrated,which can be effective to modeling the complex geo-electrical structures.This efficient algorithm will help to study the distribution laws of3-D land frequency-domain controlled-source electromagnetic responses and to setup basis for research of three-dimensional inversion.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.31870426).
文摘Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.
文摘Stresses in a block around a dipping fracture simulating a damage zone of a fault are reconstructed by finite-element modeling. A fracture corresponding to a fault of different lengths, with its plane dipping at different angles, is assumed to follow a lithological interface and to experience either compression or shear. The stress associated with the destruction shows an asymmetrical pattern with different distances from the highest stress sites to the fault plane in the hanging and foot walls. As the dip angle decreases,the high-stress zone becomes wider in the hanging wall but its width changes negligibly in the foot wall.The length of the simulated fault and the deformation type affect only the magnitude of maximum stress,which remains asymmetrical relative to the fault plane. The Lh/Lfratio, where Lhand Lfare the widths of high-stress zones in the hanging and foot walls of the fault, respectively, is inversely proportional to the fault plane dip. The arithmetic mean of this ratio over different fault lengths in fractures subject to compression changes from 0.29 at a dip of 80°to 1.67 at 30°. In the case of shift displacement, ratios are increasing to 1.2 and 2.94, respectively.Usually they consider vertical fault planes and symmetry in a damage zone of faults. Following that assumption may cause errors in reconstructions of stress and fault patterns in areas of complex structural setting. According geological data, we know the structures are different and asymmetric in hanging and foot walls of fault. Thus, it is important to quantify zones of that asymmetry. The modeling results have to be taken into account in studies of natural faults, especially for practical applications in seismic risk mapping, engineering geology, hydrogeology, and tectonics.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41204094)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(No.2462015YQ0506)
文摘In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML （H-PML） combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML （C-PML） with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML （M-PML）. The H-PML boundary conditions can better suppress the numerical instability in some extreme models, and the computational speed of finite-element method and the dynamic range are greatly increased using this HPML. We use the finite-element method with a hybrid PML to model the acoustic reflection of the interface when wireline and well logging while drilling （LWD）, in a formation with a reflector outside the borehole. The simulation results suggests that the PS- and SP- reflected waves arrive at the same time when the inclination between the well and the outer interface is zero, and the difference in arrival times increases with increasing dip angle. When there are fractures outside the well, the reflection signal is clearer in the subsequent reflection waves and may be used to identify the fractured zone. The difference between the dominant wavelength and the model scale shows that LWD reflection logging data are of higher resolution and quality than wireline acoustic reflection logging.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52374147,42372328,and U23B2091)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3804200)Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Science and Technology Major Program(No.2023A01002).
文摘Underground pumped storage power plant(UPSP)is an innovative concept for space recycling of abandoned mines.Its realization requires better understanding of the dynamic performance and durability of reservoir rock.This paper conducted ultrasonic detection,split Hopkinson pressure bar(SHPB)impact,mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP),and backscatter electron observation(BSE)tests to investigate the dynamical behaviour and microstructure of sandstone with cyclical dry-wet damage.A coupling FEM-DEM model was constructed for reappearing mesoscopic structure damage.The results show that dry-wet cycles decrease the dynamic compressive strength(DCS)with a maximum reduction of 39.40%,the elastic limit strength is reduced from 41.75 to 25.62 MPa.The sieved fragments obtain the highest crack growth rate during the 23rd dry-wet cycle with a predictable life of 25 cycles for each rock particle.The pore fractal features of the macropores and micro-meso pores show great differences between the early and late cycles,which verifies the computational statistics analysis of particle deterioration.The numerical results show that the failure patterns are governed by the strain in pre-peak stage and the shear cracks are dominant.The dry-wet cycles reduce the energy transfer efficiency and lead to the discretization of force chain and crack fields.
基金the support provided by the Royal Higher Institute for Defence (RHID) of the Belgian Defence, which has contributed to the progress of this ongoing research.
文摘A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballistics is to estimate the gas pressure into the combustion chamber and the projectile muzzle velocity in order to use the propellant to its higher efficiency while avoiding over-pressure phenomena. Dealing with the internal ballistic problem is a complex undertaking since it requires handling the interaction between different constituents during a transient time lapse with very steep rise of pressure and temperature. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on different assumptions and techniques. Generally, depending on the used mathematical framework, they can be classified into two categories: computational fluid dynamics-based models and lumped-parameter ones. By focusing on gun systems, this paper offers a review of the main contributions in the field by mentioning their advantages and drawbacks. An insight into the limitations of the currently available modelling strategies is provided,as well as some considerations on the choice of one model over another. Lumped-parameter models, for example, are a good candidate for performing parametric analysis and optimisation processes of gun systems, given their minimum requirements of computer resources. Conversely, CFD-based models have a better capacity to address more sophisticated phenomena like pressure waves and turbulent flow effects. The performed review also reveals that too little attention has been given to small calibre guns since the majority of currently available models are conceived for medium and large calibre gun systems.Similarly, aspects like wear phenomena, bore deformations or projectile-barrel interactions still need to be adequately addressed and our suggestion is to dedicate more effort on it.
文摘In recent years,there has been a growing interest in using artificial intelligence(AI)for rainfall-runoff modelling,as it has shown promising adaptability in this context.The current study involved the use of six distinct AI models to simulate monthly rainfall-runoff modelling in the Bardha watershed,India.These models included the artificial neural network(ANN),k-nearest neighbour regression model(KNN),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)regression model,random forest regression model(RF),convolutional neural network(CNN),and CNN-RNN(convolutional recurrent neural network).The years 2003-2007 are classified as the calibration or training period,while the years 2008-2009 are classified as the validation or testing period for the span of time 2003 to 2009.The available rainfall,maximum and minimum temperatures,and discharge data were collected and utilized in the models.To compare the performance of the models,five criteria were employed:R^(2),NSE,MAE,RMSE,and PBIAS.The CNN-RNN model simulates the rainfall-runoff model in the Bardha watershed best in both the training and testing periods(training:R^(2) is 0.99,NSE is 0.99,MAE is 1.76,RMSE is 3.11,and PBIAS is1.45;testing:R^(2) is 0.97,NSE is 0.97,MAE is 2.05,RMSE is 3.60,and PBIAS is3.94).These results demonstrate the superior performance of the CNN-RNN model in simulating monthly rainfall-runoff modelling when compared to the other models used in the study.The findings suggest that the CNN-RNN model could be a valuable tool for various applications related to sustainable water resource management,flood control,and environmental planning.
文摘Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.
