Accurate gas viscosity determination is an important issue in the oil and gas industries.Experimental approaches for gas viscosity measurement are timeconsuming,expensive and hardly possible at high pressures and high...Accurate gas viscosity determination is an important issue in the oil and gas industries.Experimental approaches for gas viscosity measurement are timeconsuming,expensive and hardly possible at high pressures and high temperatures(HPHT).In this study,a number of correlations were developed to estimate gas viscosity by the use of group method of data handling(GMDH)type neural network and gene expression programming(GEP)techniques using a large data set containing more than 3000 experimental data points for methane,nitrogen,and hydrocarbon gas mixtures.It is worth mentioning that unlike many of viscosity correlations,the proposed ones in this study could compute gas viscosity at pressures ranging between 34 and 172 MPa and temperatures between 310 and 1300 K.Also,a comparison was performed between the results of these established models and the results of ten wellknown models reported in the literature.Average absolute relative errors of GMDH models were obtained 4.23%,0.64%,and 0.61%for hydrocarbon gas mixtures,methane,and nitrogen,respectively.In addition,graphical analyses indicate that the GMDH can predict gas viscosity with higher accuracy than GEP at HPHT conditions.Also,using leverage technique,valid,suspected and outlier data points were determined.Finally,trends of gas viscosity models at different conditions were evaluated.展开更多
This paper proposes the use of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) technique for modeling Magneto-Rheological (MR) dampers in the context of system identification. GMDH is a multilayer network of quadratic neurons th...This paper proposes the use of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) technique for modeling Magneto-Rheological (MR) dampers in the context of system identification. GMDH is a multilayer network of quadratic neurons that offers an effective solution to modeling non-linear systems. As such, we propose the use of GMDH to approximate the forward and inverse dynamic behaviors of MR dampers. We also introduce two enhanced GMDH-based solutions. Firstly, a two-tier architecture is proposed whereby an enhanced GMD model is generated by the aid of a feedback scheme. Secondly, stepwise regression is used as a feature selection method prior to GMDH modeling. The proposed enhancements to GMDH are found to offer improved prediction results in terms of reducing the root-mean-squared error by around 40%.展开更多
Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department t...Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.展开更多
We used simulated data to investigate both the small and large sample properties of the within-groups (WG) estimator and the first difference generalized method of moments (FD-GMM) estimator of a dynamic panel data (D...We used simulated data to investigate both the small and large sample properties of the within-groups (WG) estimator and the first difference generalized method of moments (FD-GMM) estimator of a dynamic panel data (DPD) model. The magnitude of WG and FD-GMM estimates are almost the same for square panels. WG estimator performs best for long panels such as those with time dimension as large as 50. The advantage of FD-GMM estimator however, is observed on panels that are long and wide, say with time dimension at least 25 and cross-section dimension size of at least 30. For small-sized panels, the two methods failed since their optimality was established in the context of asymptotic theory. We developed parametric bootstrap versions of WG and FD-GMM estimators. Simulation study indicates the advantages of the bootstrap methods under small sample cases on the assumption that variances of the individual effects and the disturbances are of similar magnitude. The boostrapped WG and FD-GMM estimators are optimal for small samples.展开更多
针对我国当前经济、政策变动的大背景,提出了采用数据分组处理方法GMDH(group method of data handling)结合多结构突变理论,实现时序突变点自动搜索建模,建立了中长期负荷预测的GMDH多结构自动搜索模型。该模型能够客观准确地搜索时间...针对我国当前经济、政策变动的大背景,提出了采用数据分组处理方法GMDH(group method of data handling)结合多结构突变理论,实现时序突变点自动搜索建模,建立了中长期负荷预测的GMDH多结构自动搜索模型。该模型能够客观准确地搜索时间序列中的所有突变点,并充分利用突变点信息修正由于经济环境和突发事件引起的预测偏差,大大提高了传统时序外推预测模型的精度。华东地区的实际算例结果表明了该模型的有效性。展开更多
针对传统数据处理组合方法(Group method of data handling,GMDH)网络建模用最小二乘法辨识参数会导致模型预测效果不理想的问题,将模糊推理模型引入GMDH网络,以取代传统GMDH网络的部分描述(即完全二元二次多项式),提出了一种基于模糊G...针对传统数据处理组合方法(Group method of data handling,GMDH)网络建模用最小二乘法辨识参数会导致模型预测效果不理想的问题,将模糊推理模型引入GMDH网络,以取代传统GMDH网络的部分描述(即完全二元二次多项式),提出了一种基于模糊GMDH网络的交通流量预测模型。计算机仿真结果表明,该模型预测平均相对误差仅为2.31%,小于传统GMDH网络模型预测平均相对误差3.35%,说明了该模型是有效的。展开更多
文摘Accurate gas viscosity determination is an important issue in the oil and gas industries.Experimental approaches for gas viscosity measurement are timeconsuming,expensive and hardly possible at high pressures and high temperatures(HPHT).In this study,a number of correlations were developed to estimate gas viscosity by the use of group method of data handling(GMDH)type neural network and gene expression programming(GEP)techniques using a large data set containing more than 3000 experimental data points for methane,nitrogen,and hydrocarbon gas mixtures.It is worth mentioning that unlike many of viscosity correlations,the proposed ones in this study could compute gas viscosity at pressures ranging between 34 and 172 MPa and temperatures between 310 and 1300 K.Also,a comparison was performed between the results of these established models and the results of ten wellknown models reported in the literature.Average absolute relative errors of GMDH models were obtained 4.23%,0.64%,and 0.61%for hydrocarbon gas mixtures,methane,and nitrogen,respectively.In addition,graphical analyses indicate that the GMDH can predict gas viscosity with higher accuracy than GEP at HPHT conditions.Also,using leverage technique,valid,suspected and outlier data points were determined.Finally,trends of gas viscosity models at different conditions were evaluated.
文摘This paper proposes the use of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) technique for modeling Magneto-Rheological (MR) dampers in the context of system identification. GMDH is a multilayer network of quadratic neurons that offers an effective solution to modeling non-linear systems. As such, we propose the use of GMDH to approximate the forward and inverse dynamic behaviors of MR dampers. We also introduce two enhanced GMDH-based solutions. Firstly, a two-tier architecture is proposed whereby an enhanced GMD model is generated by the aid of a feedback scheme. Secondly, stepwise regression is used as a feature selection method prior to GMDH modeling. The proposed enhancements to GMDH are found to offer improved prediction results in terms of reducing the root-mean-squared error by around 40%.
基金Project(61873283)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology Project,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.
文摘We used simulated data to investigate both the small and large sample properties of the within-groups (WG) estimator and the first difference generalized method of moments (FD-GMM) estimator of a dynamic panel data (DPD) model. The magnitude of WG and FD-GMM estimates are almost the same for square panels. WG estimator performs best for long panels such as those with time dimension as large as 50. The advantage of FD-GMM estimator however, is observed on panels that are long and wide, say with time dimension at least 25 and cross-section dimension size of at least 30. For small-sized panels, the two methods failed since their optimality was established in the context of asymptotic theory. We developed parametric bootstrap versions of WG and FD-GMM estimators. Simulation study indicates the advantages of the bootstrap methods under small sample cases on the assumption that variances of the individual effects and the disturbances are of similar magnitude. The boostrapped WG and FD-GMM estimators are optimal for small samples.
文摘针对我国当前经济、政策变动的大背景,提出了采用数据分组处理方法GMDH(group method of data handling)结合多结构突变理论,实现时序突变点自动搜索建模,建立了中长期负荷预测的GMDH多结构自动搜索模型。该模型能够客观准确地搜索时间序列中的所有突变点,并充分利用突变点信息修正由于经济环境和突发事件引起的预测偏差,大大提高了传统时序外推预测模型的精度。华东地区的实际算例结果表明了该模型的有效性。
文摘针对传统数据处理组合方法(Group method of data handling,GMDH)网络建模用最小二乘法辨识参数会导致模型预测效果不理想的问题,将模糊推理模型引入GMDH网络,以取代传统GMDH网络的部分描述(即完全二元二次多项式),提出了一种基于模糊GMDH网络的交通流量预测模型。计算机仿真结果表明,该模型预测平均相对误差仅为2.31%,小于传统GMDH网络模型预测平均相对误差3.35%,说明了该模型是有效的。
