Forecasting error amending is a universal solution to improve short-term wind power forecasting accuracy no matter what specific forecasting algorithms are applied. The error correction model should be presented consi...Forecasting error amending is a universal solution to improve short-term wind power forecasting accuracy no matter what specific forecasting algorithms are applied. The error correction model should be presented considering not only the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of forecasting errors but also the field application adaptability problems. The kernel recursive least-squares(KRLS) model is introduced to meet the requirements of online error correction. An iterative error modification approach is designed in this paper to yield the potential benefits of statistical models, including a set of error forecasting models. The teleconnection in forecasting errors from aggregated wind farms serves as the physical background to choose the hybrid regression variables. A case study based on field data is found to validate the properties of the proposed approach. The results show that our approach could effectively extend the modifying horizon of statistical models and has a better performance than the traditional linear method for amending short-term forecasts.展开更多
针对测试训练期间变化的信道环境,提出一种新的滑动窗近似线性依赖稀疏的核递推最小二乘算法。该算法核矩阵的尺寸只与滑动窗口宽度有关。选择字典表中最近的L个数据测试近似线性依赖准则,减少系统开销并降低系统实现的复杂度,克服ALD-K...针对测试训练期间变化的信道环境,提出一种新的滑动窗近似线性依赖稀疏的核递推最小二乘算法。该算法核矩阵的尺寸只与滑动窗口宽度有关。选择字典表中最近的L个数据测试近似线性依赖准则,减少系统开销并降低系统实现的复杂度,克服ALD-KRLS算法核矩阵随字典表线性增长的缺陷。当训练序列的自相关矩阵特征根谱大于40时,较SW-KRLS均方误差性能有近3 d B的改善,且具有更小的稳态失调特性。仿真结果表明,与ALD-KRLS算法和KRLS算法相比,该算法具有更快的收敛速度和较好的均方误差性能。展开更多
基金partly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51190101)science and technology project of State Grid,Research on the combined planning method for renewable power base based on multi-dimensional characteristics of wind and solar energy
文摘Forecasting error amending is a universal solution to improve short-term wind power forecasting accuracy no matter what specific forecasting algorithms are applied. The error correction model should be presented considering not only the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of forecasting errors but also the field application adaptability problems. The kernel recursive least-squares(KRLS) model is introduced to meet the requirements of online error correction. An iterative error modification approach is designed in this paper to yield the potential benefits of statistical models, including a set of error forecasting models. The teleconnection in forecasting errors from aggregated wind farms serves as the physical background to choose the hybrid regression variables. A case study based on field data is found to validate the properties of the proposed approach. The results show that our approach could effectively extend the modifying horizon of statistical models and has a better performance than the traditional linear method for amending short-term forecasts.
文摘针对测试训练期间变化的信道环境,提出一种新的滑动窗近似线性依赖稀疏的核递推最小二乘算法。该算法核矩阵的尺寸只与滑动窗口宽度有关。选择字典表中最近的L个数据测试近似线性依赖准则,减少系统开销并降低系统实现的复杂度,克服ALD-KRLS算法核矩阵随字典表线性增长的缺陷。当训练序列的自相关矩阵特征根谱大于40时,较SW-KRLS均方误差性能有近3 d B的改善,且具有更小的稳态失调特性。仿真结果表明,与ALD-KRLS算法和KRLS算法相比,该算法具有更快的收敛速度和较好的均方误差性能。
