这篇研究旨在利用主成分分析和Logistic模型来进行金融上市公司财务预警分析。财务预警分析是评估公司财务健康状况并预测可能的财务困境的重要工具。本研究通过PCA分析来降维,提取出最具代表性的财务指标,然后利用Logistic回归模型来...这篇研究旨在利用主成分分析和Logistic模型来进行金融上市公司财务预警分析。财务预警分析是评估公司财务健康状况并预测可能的财务困境的重要工具。本研究通过PCA分析来降维,提取出最具代表性的财务指标,然后利用Logistic回归模型来预测公司是否会陷入财务困境。用79家金融业上市公司2021年数据进行检验,得出建模组总体预测准确率为71.67%,检验组总体预测准确率为82%。通过这种方法,研究旨在为金融上市公司提供有效的财务预警机制,帮助企业管理层及时发现潜在的财务风险,同时完善了对目前金融业上市公司财务预警模型的相关研究,帮助投资者、管理者和监管机构更好地评估和管理财务风险。The aim of this study is to conduct financial early warning analysis of financial listed companies using Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Modelling. Financial early warning analysis is an important tool for assessing the financial health of a company and predicting possible financial distress. In this study, PCA analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality and extract the most representative financial indicators, and then Logistic regression model is used to predict whether the company will be in financial distress. Tests using 2021 data from 79 listed companies in the financial sector yielded an overall prediction accuracy of 71.67% for the modelling group and 82% for the test group. Through this method, the study aims to provide listed financial companies with an effective financial early warning mechanism to help corporate management identify potential financial risks in a timely manner, and at the same time, it improves the relevant research on the current financial early warning models of listed companies in the financial industry to help investors, managers, and regulators better assess and manage financial risks.展开更多
Dior“文化挪用”马面裙事件引发民众热议,以“马面裙”为代表的新中式服装走进大众视野。新中式服装实现了传统文化与现代时尚的完美融合,其产业发展在经济、文化等不同维度上均具有重要价值,因而了解民众对新中式服装的情感倾向与关注...Dior“文化挪用”马面裙事件引发民众热议,以“马面裙”为代表的新中式服装走进大众视野。新中式服装实现了传统文化与现代时尚的完美融合,其产业发展在经济、文化等不同维度上均具有重要价值,因而了解民众对新中式服装的情感倾向与关注点,深入分析影响民众关于新中式服装购买意愿的影响因素对新中式服装产业的未来发展及传统文化传承具有深远意义。团队通过网络爬取进行文本分析,为问卷设计提供理论支持。基于描述性统计分析构建消费者画像,综合应用二值Logistic回归与随机森林模型确定影响消费意愿的主要因素,从消费者因素、产品因素和推广途径三个方面明确新中式服装的市场方向,以此提出有价值的结论与建议。结果表明,性别、年龄、学历、收入、地区作用的消费者自身因素是影响新中式服装购买意愿的最主要因素。Dior’s “cultural appropriation” incident involving horse-face skirts has sparked public discussion, and new Chinese-style clothing represented by the horse-face skirts has entered the public eye. This style perfectly blends traditional culture with modern fashion, and its industrial development has important value in different dimensions such as economy and culture. Therefore, understanding the emotional tendencies and concerns of the public towards the new Chinese-style clothing, and conducting a deep analysis of the factors influencing the public’s willingness to purchase such clothing have profound significance for the future development of the new Chinese-style clothing industry and the inheritance of traditional culture. The team conducted text analysis through web crawling to provide theoretical support for questionnaire design. Based on descriptive statistical analysis, a consumer portrait is constructed, and binary logistic regression and random forest models are comprehensively applied to determine the main factors affecting consumers’ willingness. Clarifying the market direction of new Chinese-style clothing from three aspects: consumer factors, product attributes, and promotional channels, in order to provide valuable conclusions and suggestions. The results indicate that consumer factors such as gender, age, education, income, and regional influence are the most significant factors affecting the willingness to purchase new Chinese-style clothing.展开更多
好特卖是一家主打“超低折扣”的品牌零售集合连锁店,开辟了零售折扣店的全新赛道。本研究实施了产学研相结合的研究路径,充分发挥了学术界、产业界与实际市场之间的互动作用。通过开展市场调研,积累丰富的数据资料,旨在研究好特卖学生...好特卖是一家主打“超低折扣”的品牌零售集合连锁店,开辟了零售折扣店的全新赛道。本研究实施了产学研相结合的研究路径,充分发挥了学术界、产业界与实际市场之间的互动作用。通过开展市场调研,积累丰富的数据资料,旨在研究好特卖学生消费意愿及推广模式,全面分析影响学生购买意愿的各种因素,并在此基础上提出具有针对性的建议。通过大量的问卷调查以及二元Logistic回归分析,得到影响好特卖学生消费意愿的12种因素,同时得出好特卖应充分了解学生群体的消费需求,丰富商品种类,提供优质的购物体验;在商品品质得以保证的基础上,可以适当提高性价比,以满足学生的消费预算的结论。在此基础上,本研究从宣传和商品两个角度提出了相关适合好特卖的营销宣传建议。HotMaxx is a brand retail collection chain featuring “ultra-low discount”, opening up a new track of retail discount stores. This research implements the research path of combining industry, university and research, and gives full play to the interactive role between academia, industry and the actual market. Through conducting market research and accumulating rich data, it aims to study the students’ consumption intention and promotion mode for HotMaxx, comprehensively analyze various factors affecting students’ purchase intention, and put forward targeted suggestions on this basis. Through a large number of questionnaire survey and binary Logistic regression analysis, 12 factors affect the students’ consumption intention for HotMaxx. At the same time, it is concluded that HotMaxx should fully understand the consumption needs of students, enrich the types of goods, and provide high-quality shopping experience;on the basis of ensuring the quality of goods, the cost performance can be appropriately improved to meet the students’ consumption budget. On this basis, this research puts forward relevant marketing suggestions suitable for HotMaxx from the perspectives of publicity and commodity.展开更多
目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根...目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根据妊娠结局分为妊娠成功组(215例)和妊娠失败组(135例)。收集患者临床资料,建立IVF-ET患者妊娠结局Logistic回归和决策树预测模型,并在是否基于Logistic回归结果条件下建立决策树分析模型(决策树1和决策树2),采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型预测效果进行评价。结果:350例患者中,妊娠成功患者占61.43%,妊娠失败者占38.57%。妊娠失败组年龄≥35岁、不孕年限≥5年、周期次数≥1次、有心理精神障碍的患者比例及HCG日血清孕酮水平均高于妊娠成功组,获卵数≥10枚、受精率≥75%的患者比例及HCG日子宫内膜厚度、优质胚胎数小于妊娠成功组(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数及心理精神障碍均是IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素(P<0.05)。决策树模型显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数为IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素。Logistic回归模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.832,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为87.3%、71.4%、83.5%;决策树1的AUC为0.859,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为85.1%、76.8%、85.6%;决策树2的AUC为0.820,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为83.7%、73.2%、82.4%。决策树1的AUC大于决策树2(P<0.05),但与Logistic回归模型的AUC比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:Logistic回归模型和决策树模型对于IVF-ET患者妊娠结局均有一定的预测价值。展开更多
文摘这篇研究旨在利用主成分分析和Logistic模型来进行金融上市公司财务预警分析。财务预警分析是评估公司财务健康状况并预测可能的财务困境的重要工具。本研究通过PCA分析来降维,提取出最具代表性的财务指标,然后利用Logistic回归模型来预测公司是否会陷入财务困境。用79家金融业上市公司2021年数据进行检验,得出建模组总体预测准确率为71.67%,检验组总体预测准确率为82%。通过这种方法,研究旨在为金融上市公司提供有效的财务预警机制,帮助企业管理层及时发现潜在的财务风险,同时完善了对目前金融业上市公司财务预警模型的相关研究,帮助投资者、管理者和监管机构更好地评估和管理财务风险。The aim of this study is to conduct financial early warning analysis of financial listed companies using Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Modelling. Financial early warning analysis is an important tool for assessing the financial health of a company and predicting possible financial distress. In this study, PCA analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality and extract the most representative financial indicators, and then Logistic regression model is used to predict whether the company will be in financial distress. Tests using 2021 data from 79 listed companies in the financial sector yielded an overall prediction accuracy of 71.67% for the modelling group and 82% for the test group. Through this method, the study aims to provide listed financial companies with an effective financial early warning mechanism to help corporate management identify potential financial risks in a timely manner, and at the same time, it improves the relevant research on the current financial early warning models of listed companies in the financial industry to help investors, managers, and regulators better assess and manage financial risks.
文摘Dior“文化挪用”马面裙事件引发民众热议,以“马面裙”为代表的新中式服装走进大众视野。新中式服装实现了传统文化与现代时尚的完美融合,其产业发展在经济、文化等不同维度上均具有重要价值,因而了解民众对新中式服装的情感倾向与关注点,深入分析影响民众关于新中式服装购买意愿的影响因素对新中式服装产业的未来发展及传统文化传承具有深远意义。团队通过网络爬取进行文本分析,为问卷设计提供理论支持。基于描述性统计分析构建消费者画像,综合应用二值Logistic回归与随机森林模型确定影响消费意愿的主要因素,从消费者因素、产品因素和推广途径三个方面明确新中式服装的市场方向,以此提出有价值的结论与建议。结果表明,性别、年龄、学历、收入、地区作用的消费者自身因素是影响新中式服装购买意愿的最主要因素。Dior’s “cultural appropriation” incident involving horse-face skirts has sparked public discussion, and new Chinese-style clothing represented by the horse-face skirts has entered the public eye. This style perfectly blends traditional culture with modern fashion, and its industrial development has important value in different dimensions such as economy and culture. Therefore, understanding the emotional tendencies and concerns of the public towards the new Chinese-style clothing, and conducting a deep analysis of the factors influencing the public’s willingness to purchase such clothing have profound significance for the future development of the new Chinese-style clothing industry and the inheritance of traditional culture. The team conducted text analysis through web crawling to provide theoretical support for questionnaire design. Based on descriptive statistical analysis, a consumer portrait is constructed, and binary logistic regression and random forest models are comprehensively applied to determine the main factors affecting consumers’ willingness. Clarifying the market direction of new Chinese-style clothing from three aspects: consumer factors, product attributes, and promotional channels, in order to provide valuable conclusions and suggestions. The results indicate that consumer factors such as gender, age, education, income, and regional influence are the most significant factors affecting the willingness to purchase new Chinese-style clothing.
文摘好特卖是一家主打“超低折扣”的品牌零售集合连锁店,开辟了零售折扣店的全新赛道。本研究实施了产学研相结合的研究路径,充分发挥了学术界、产业界与实际市场之间的互动作用。通过开展市场调研,积累丰富的数据资料,旨在研究好特卖学生消费意愿及推广模式,全面分析影响学生购买意愿的各种因素,并在此基础上提出具有针对性的建议。通过大量的问卷调查以及二元Logistic回归分析,得到影响好特卖学生消费意愿的12种因素,同时得出好特卖应充分了解学生群体的消费需求,丰富商品种类,提供优质的购物体验;在商品品质得以保证的基础上,可以适当提高性价比,以满足学生的消费预算的结论。在此基础上,本研究从宣传和商品两个角度提出了相关适合好特卖的营销宣传建议。HotMaxx is a brand retail collection chain featuring “ultra-low discount”, opening up a new track of retail discount stores. This research implements the research path of combining industry, university and research, and gives full play to the interactive role between academia, industry and the actual market. Through conducting market research and accumulating rich data, it aims to study the students’ consumption intention and promotion mode for HotMaxx, comprehensively analyze various factors affecting students’ purchase intention, and put forward targeted suggestions on this basis. Through a large number of questionnaire survey and binary Logistic regression analysis, 12 factors affect the students’ consumption intention for HotMaxx. At the same time, it is concluded that HotMaxx should fully understand the consumption needs of students, enrich the types of goods, and provide high-quality shopping experience;on the basis of ensuring the quality of goods, the cost performance can be appropriately improved to meet the students’ consumption budget. On this basis, this research puts forward relevant marketing suggestions suitable for HotMaxx from the perspectives of publicity and commodity.
文摘目的:比较决策树和Logistic回归模型对体外受精-胚胎移植(in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer,IVF-ET)患者妊娠结局的预测价值。方法:纳入2021年1月至2022年10月在长治医学院附属和平医院接受IVF-ET的患者350例为研究对象,根据妊娠结局分为妊娠成功组(215例)和妊娠失败组(135例)。收集患者临床资料,建立IVF-ET患者妊娠结局Logistic回归和决策树预测模型,并在是否基于Logistic回归结果条件下建立决策树分析模型(决策树1和决策树2),采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型预测效果进行评价。结果:350例患者中,妊娠成功患者占61.43%,妊娠失败者占38.57%。妊娠失败组年龄≥35岁、不孕年限≥5年、周期次数≥1次、有心理精神障碍的患者比例及HCG日血清孕酮水平均高于妊娠成功组,获卵数≥10枚、受精率≥75%的患者比例及HCG日子宫内膜厚度、优质胚胎数小于妊娠成功组(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数及心理精神障碍均是IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素(P<0.05)。决策树模型显示,年龄、HCG日血清孕酮水平、优质胚胎数为IVF-ET患者妊娠结局的影响因素。Logistic回归模型曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.832,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为87.3%、71.4%、83.5%;决策树1的AUC为0.859,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为85.1%、76.8%、85.6%;决策树2的AUC为0.820,预测敏感度、特异度和准确度分别为83.7%、73.2%、82.4%。决策树1的AUC大于决策树2(P<0.05),但与Logistic回归模型的AUC比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:Logistic回归模型和决策树模型对于IVF-ET患者妊娠结局均有一定的预测价值。
