In this paper, an improved cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm is proposed for lifeline networks. First, a complementary structural function is established and three theorems are presented as a premise of the ...In this paper, an improved cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm is proposed for lifeline networks. First, a complementary structural function is established and three theorems are presented as a premise of the proposed algorithm. Taking the minimal cut of a network as decomposition policy, the proposed algorithm constructs a recursive decomposition process. During the decomposition, both the disjoint minimal cut set and the disjoint minimal path set are simultaneously enumerated. Therefore, in addition to obtaining an accurate value after decomposing all disjoint minimal cuts and disjoint minimal paths, the algorithm provides approximate results which satisfy a prescribed error bound using a probabilistic inequality. Two example networks, including a large urban gas system, are analyzed using the proposed algorithm. Meanwhile, a part of the results are compared with the results obtained by a path-based recursive decomposition algorithm. These results show that the proposed algorithm provides a useful probabilistic analysis method for the reliability evaluation of lifeline networks and may be more suitable for networks where the edges have low reliabilities.展开更多
The traditional methods for synthesizing flexible heat exchanger networks(HENs)are not directly applicable to inter-plant HEN challenges,primarily due to the spread of system uncertainty across plants via intermedium ...The traditional methods for synthesizing flexible heat exchanger networks(HENs)are not directly applicable to inter-plant HEN challenges,primarily due to the spread of system uncertainty across plants via intermedium fluid circles.This complicates the synthesis process significantly.To tackle this issue,this study proposes a decomposed stepwise methodology to facilitate the flexible synthesis of the interplant HENs performing indirect heat integration.A decomposition strategy is proposed to divide the overall network into manageable sub-networks by dissecting the intermedium fluid circles.To address the variability in intermedium fluid temperatures,a temperature fluctuation analysis approach is developed and a heuristic rule is introduced to maintain the temperature feasibility of the intermedium fluids.To ensure adequate flexibility and cost-effectiveness of the designed networks,flexibility analysis and network retrofit steps are conducted through model-based optimization techniques.The efficacy of the method is demonstrated through two case studies,showing its potential in achieving the desired operational flexibility for inter-plant HENs.展开更多
Distributed Generation (DG) in any quantity is relevant to supplement the available energy capacity based on various locations, that is, whether a site specific or non-site specific energy technology. The evacuation i...Distributed Generation (DG) in any quantity is relevant to supplement the available energy capacity based on various locations, that is, whether a site specific or non-site specific energy technology. The evacuation infrastructure that delivers power to the distribution grid is designed with appropriate capacity in terms of size and length. The evacuation lines and distribution network however behave differently as they possess inherent characteristics and are exposed to varying external conditions. It is thus feasible to expect that these networks behave stochastically due to fault conditions and variable loads that destabilize the system. This in essence impacts on the availability of the evacuation infrastructure and consequently on the amount of energy delivered to the grid from the DG stations. Reliability of the evacuation point of a DG is however not a common or prioritized criteria in the decision process that guides investment in DG. This paper reviews a planned solar based DG plant in Uganda. Over the last couple of years, Uganda has seen a significant increase in the penetration levels of DG. With a network that is predominantly radial and experiences low reliability levels, one would thus expect reliability analysis to feature significantly in the assessment of the proposed DG plants. This is however not the case. This paper, uses reliability analysis to assess the impact of different evacuation options of the proposed DG plant on its dispatch levels. The evacuation options were selected based on infrastructure options in other locations with similar solar irradiances as the planned DG location. Outage data were collected and analyzed using the chi square method. It was found to be variable and fitting to different Probability Distribution Functions (PDF). Using stochastic methods, a model that incorporates the PDFs was developed to compute the reliability indices. These were assessed using chi square and found to be variable and fitting different PDFs as well. The viability of the project is reviewed based on Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and the anticipated project payback periods for any considered evacuation line. The results of the study are also reviewed for the benefit of other stakeholders like the customers, the utility and the regulatory body.展开更多
First,the state space tree method for finding communication network overall re-liability is presented.It directly generates one disjoint tree multilevel polynomial of a networkgraph.Its advantages are smaller computat...First,the state space tree method for finding communication network overall re-liability is presented.It directly generates one disjoint tree multilevel polynomial of a networkgraph.Its advantages are smaller computational effort(its computing time complexity is O(en_l),where e is the number of edges and n_l is the number of leaves)and shorter resulting expression.Second,based on it an exact decomposition algorithm for finding communication network overallreliability is presented by applying the hypergraph theory.If we use it to carry out the m-timedecomposition of a network graph,the communication network scale which can be analyzed by acomputer can be extended to m-fold.展开更多
The seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks has received considerable attention and been widely studied. In this paper, on the basis of an original recursive decomposition algorithm, an improved analytical...The seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks has received considerable attention and been widely studied. In this paper, on the basis of an original recursive decomposition algorithm, an improved analytical approach to evaluate the seismic reliability of large lifeline systems is presented. The proposed algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the sink of a network as decomposition policy. Using the Boolean laws of set operation and the probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process is constructed in which the disjoint minimal path set and the disjoint minimal cut set are simultaneously enumerated. As the result, a probabilistic inequality can be used to provide results that satisfy a prescribed error bound. During the decomposition process, different from the original recursive decomposition algorithm which only removes edges to simplify the network, the proposed algorithm simplifies the network by merging nodes into sources and removing edges. As a result, the proposed algorithm can obtain simpler networks. Moreover, for a network owning s-independent components in its component set, two network reduction techniques are introduced to speed up the proposed algorithm. A series of case studies, including an actual water distribution network and a large urban gas system, are calculated using the proposed algorithm. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides a useful probabilistic analysis method for the seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks.展开更多
As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such...As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple programming. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy neural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved, and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.展开更多
The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of ran...The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.展开更多
In the graph signal processing(GSP)framework,distributed algorithms are highly desirable in processing signals defined on large-scale networks.However,in most existing distributed algorithms,all nodes homogeneously pe...In the graph signal processing(GSP)framework,distributed algorithms are highly desirable in processing signals defined on large-scale networks.However,in most existing distributed algorithms,all nodes homogeneously perform the local computation,which calls for heavy computational and communication costs.Moreover,in many real-world networks,such as those with straggling nodes,the homogeneous manner may result in serious delay or even failure.To this end,we propose active network decomposition algorithms to select non-straggling nodes(normal nodes)that perform the main computation and communication across the network.To accommodate the decomposition in different kinds of networks,two different approaches are developed,one is centralized decomposition that leverages the adjacency of the network and the other is distributed decomposition that employs the indicator message transmission between neighboring nodes,which constitutes the main contribution of this paper.By incorporating the active decomposition scheme,a distributed Newton method is employed to solve the least squares problem in GSP,where the Hessian inverse is approximately evaluated by patching a series of inverses of local Hessian matrices each of which is governed by one normal node.The proposed algorithm inherits the fast convergence of the second-order algorithms while maintains low computational and communication cost.Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to propose a computational technique for evaluating the reliability of networks subject to stochastic failures. In this computation, a mathematical model is provided using a technique whic...The purpose of this paper is to propose a computational technique for evaluating the reliability of networks subject to stochastic failures. In this computation, a mathematical model is provided using a technique which incorporates the effect of the factoring decomposition theorem using polygon-to-chain and series-parallel reductions. The algorithm proceeds by identifying iteratively one of seven polygons and when it is discovered, the polygon is immediately removed and replaced by a simple chain after having changed the individual values of the reliability of each edge and each node of the polygon. Theoretically, the mathematical development follows the results presented by Satyanarayana & Wood and Theologou & Carlier. The computation process is recursively performed and less constrained in term of execution time and memory space, and generates an exact value of the reliability.展开更多
It is a non-polynomial complexity problem to calculate connectivity of the complex network. When the system reliability cannot be expressed as a function of element reliability, we have to apply some heuristic methods...It is a non-polynomial complexity problem to calculate connectivity of the complex network. When the system reliability cannot be expressed as a function of element reliability, we have to apply some heuristic methods for optimization based on connectivity of the network. The calculation structure of connectivity of complex network is analyzed in the paper. The coefficient matrixes of Taylor second order expansion of the system connectivity is generated based on the calculation structure of connectivity of complex network. An optimal schedule is achieved based on genetic algorithms （GA）. Fitness of seeds is calculated using the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity. Precise connectivity of the optimal schedule and the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity can be achieved by the approved Minty method or the recursive decomposition algorithm. When error between approximate connectivity and the precise value exceeds the assigned value, the optimization process is continued using GA, and the Taylor function of system connectivity needs to be renewed. The optimization process is called iterative GA. Iterative GA can be used in the large network for optimal reliability attribution. One temporary optimal result will be generated every time in the iteration process. These temporary optimal results approach the real optimal results. They can be regarded as a group of approximate optimal results useful in the real project.展开更多
This study involves the development of an analytical model for understanding the behavior of the extended, stiffened end-plate moment connections with eight high strength bolts. Modeling of the connection as an assemb...This study involves the development of an analytical model for understanding the behavior of the extended, stiffened end-plate moment connections with eight high strength bolts. Modeling of the connection as an assemblage of finite elements (FE) used for load deformation analysis, with material, and contact nonlinearities are developed. Results from the FE mathematical model are verified with results from the ANSYS computer program as well as with the test results. Sensitivity and feasibility studies are carried out. Significant geometry and force related variables are introduced;and by varying the geometric variables of the connections within a practical range, a matrix of test cases is obtained. Maximum end-plate separation, maximum bending stresses in the end-plate, and the forces from the connection bolts for these test cases are obtained. From the FE analysis, a database is produced to collect results for the artificial neural network analysis. Finally, salient features of the optimized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) via Genetic Algorithm (GA) analysis are introduced and implemented with the aim of predicting the overall behavior of the connection.展开更多
Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission.Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the...Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission.Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the spreading process of infectious diseases.We used Baidu Migration data for the whole year of 2021 to build mobility networks.The nodes of the network represent cities,and the edges represent the population flow between cities.By applying the k-shell decomposition and the Louvain algorithm,we could get the k-shell values for each city and community partition.Then,we identified the most efficient nodes or pathways in a complex network by generating random networks.Furthermore,we analyzed the eigenvalue of the migration matrix to find the nodes that have the most impact on the network.We also found the consistency between k-shell value and eigenvalue through Kendall's t test.The main result is that in Spring Festival and National Day,the network is at higher risk of an infectious disease outbreak and the Yangtze River Delta is at the highest risk of an epidemic all year around.Shanghai is the most significant node in both k-shell value and eigenvalue analysis.The spatiotemporal property of the network should be taken into account to model the transmission of infectious diseases more accurately.展开更多
In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is ...In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is called the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM). This method is readily applicable when the function between the input and the output of the system is explicit. However, the situation is much more involved when it is necessary to perform the evaluation of implicit function between the input and the output of the system through numerical models. In this work, we propose a technique that combines Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) to evaluate the Probability Density Function (PDF) of response where the function between the input and the output of the system is implicit. This technique is based on the numerical simulations of the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) using an interface between Finite Element software and Matlab. Some problems of structures are treated in order to prove the applicability of the proposed technique. Moreover, the obtained results are compared to those obtained by the reference method of Monte Carlo. A second aim of this work is to develop an algorithm of global optimization using the local method SQP, because of its effectiveness and its rapidity of convergence. For this reason, we have combined the method SQP with the Multi start method. This developed algorithm is tested on test functions comparing with other methods such as the method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In order to test the applicability of the proposed approach, a structure is optimized under reliability constraints.展开更多
Based on a method combined artificial neural network (ANN) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability of plastic ball grid array (PBGA) solder joints was studied. The s...Based on a method combined artificial neural network (ANN) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability of plastic ball grid array (PBGA) solder joints was studied. The simulation experiments of accelerated thermal cycling test were performed by ANSYS software. Based on orthogonal array experiments, a back-propagation artificial neural network (BPNN) was used to establish the nonlinear multivariate relationship between thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability and control factors. Then, PSO was applied to obtaining the optimal levels of control factors by using the output of BPNN as the affinity measure. The results show that the control factors, such as print circuit board (PCB) size, PCB thickness, substrate size, substrate thickness, PCB coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), substrate CTE, silicon die CTE, and solder joint CTE, have a great influence on thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability of PBGA solder joints. The ratio of signal to noise of ANN-PSO method is 51.77 dB and its error is 33.3% less than that of Taguchi method. Moreover, the running time of ANN-PSO method is only 2% of that of the BPNN. These conclusions are verified by the confirmative experiments.展开更多
To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influencing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM) was proposed for...To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influencing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM) was proposed for multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability. The mathematical model of AMRSM was established and the basic principle of multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability with AMRSM was given. The important parameters of turbine blisk failures are obtained by the multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis of turbine blisk. Through the reliability sensitivity analyses of multiple failure modes (deformation, stress and strain) with the proposed method considering fluid-thermal-solid interaction, it is shown that the comprehensive reliability of turbine blisk is 0.9931 when the allowable deformation, stress and strain are 3.7 x 10(-3) m, 1.0023 x 10(9) Pa and 1.05 x 10(-2) m/m, respectively; the main impact factors of turbine blisk failure are gas velocity, gas temperature and rotational speed. As demonstrated in the comparison of methods (Monte Carlo (MC) method, traditional response surface method (RSM), multiple response surface method (MRSM) and AMRSM), the proposed AMRSM improves computational efficiency with acceptable computational accuracy. The efforts of this study provide the AMRSM with high precision and efficiency for multi-failure mode reliability analysis, and offer a useful insight for the reliability optimization design of multi-failure mode structure. (C) 2016 Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.展开更多
Spontaneous combustion of coal increases the temperature in adjoining overburden strata of coal seams and poses a challenge when loading blastholes.This condition,known as hot-hole blasting,is dangerous due to the inc...Spontaneous combustion of coal increases the temperature in adjoining overburden strata of coal seams and poses a challenge when loading blastholes.This condition,known as hot-hole blasting,is dangerous due to the increased possibility of premature explosions in loaded blastholes.Thus,it is crucial to load the blastholes with an appropriate amount of explosives within a short period to avoid premature detonation caused by high temperatures of blastholes.Additionally,it will help achieve the desired fragment size.This study tried to ascertain the most influencial variables of mean fragment size and their optimum values adopted for blasting in a fiery seam.Data on blast design,rock mass,and fragmentation of 100 blasts in fiery seams of a coal mine were collected and used to develop mean fragmentation prediction models using soft computational techniques.The coefficient of determination(R^(2)),root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean square error(MSE),variance account for(VAF)and coefficient of efficiency in percentage(CE)were calculated to validate the results.It indicates that the random forest algorithm(RFA)outperforms the artificial neural network(ANN),response surface method(RSM),and decision tree(DT).The values of R^(2),RMSE,MAE,MSE,VAF,and CE for RFA are 0.94,0.034,0.027,0.001,93.58,and 93.01,respectively.Multiple parametric sensitivity analyses(MPSAs)of the input variables showed that the Schmidt hammer rebound number and spacing-to-burden ratio are the most influencial variables for the blast fragment size.The analysis was finally used to define the best blast design variables to achieve optimum fragment size from blasting.The optimum factor values for RFA of S/B,ld/B and ls/ld are 1.03,1.85 and 0.7,respectively.展开更多
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of China Under Grant No.SLDRCE09-B-12Natural Science Funds for Young Scholars of China Under Grant No.50808144
文摘In this paper, an improved cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm is proposed for lifeline networks. First, a complementary structural function is established and three theorems are presented as a premise of the proposed algorithm. Taking the minimal cut of a network as decomposition policy, the proposed algorithm constructs a recursive decomposition process. During the decomposition, both the disjoint minimal cut set and the disjoint minimal path set are simultaneously enumerated. Therefore, in addition to obtaining an accurate value after decomposing all disjoint minimal cuts and disjoint minimal paths, the algorithm provides approximate results which satisfy a prescribed error bound using a probabilistic inequality. Two example networks, including a large urban gas system, are analyzed using the proposed algorithm. Meanwhile, a part of the results are compared with the results obtained by a path-based recursive decomposition algorithm. These results show that the proposed algorithm provides a useful probabilistic analysis method for the reliability evaluation of lifeline networks and may be more suitable for networks where the edges have low reliabilities.
基金financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(22378045,22178045).
文摘The traditional methods for synthesizing flexible heat exchanger networks(HENs)are not directly applicable to inter-plant HEN challenges,primarily due to the spread of system uncertainty across plants via intermedium fluid circles.This complicates the synthesis process significantly.To tackle this issue,this study proposes a decomposed stepwise methodology to facilitate the flexible synthesis of the interplant HENs performing indirect heat integration.A decomposition strategy is proposed to divide the overall network into manageable sub-networks by dissecting the intermedium fluid circles.To address the variability in intermedium fluid temperatures,a temperature fluctuation analysis approach is developed and a heuristic rule is introduced to maintain the temperature feasibility of the intermedium fluids.To ensure adequate flexibility and cost-effectiveness of the designed networks,flexibility analysis and network retrofit steps are conducted through model-based optimization techniques.The efficacy of the method is demonstrated through two case studies,showing its potential in achieving the desired operational flexibility for inter-plant HENs.
文摘Distributed Generation (DG) in any quantity is relevant to supplement the available energy capacity based on various locations, that is, whether a site specific or non-site specific energy technology. The evacuation infrastructure that delivers power to the distribution grid is designed with appropriate capacity in terms of size and length. The evacuation lines and distribution network however behave differently as they possess inherent characteristics and are exposed to varying external conditions. It is thus feasible to expect that these networks behave stochastically due to fault conditions and variable loads that destabilize the system. This in essence impacts on the availability of the evacuation infrastructure and consequently on the amount of energy delivered to the grid from the DG stations. Reliability of the evacuation point of a DG is however not a common or prioritized criteria in the decision process that guides investment in DG. This paper reviews a planned solar based DG plant in Uganda. Over the last couple of years, Uganda has seen a significant increase in the penetration levels of DG. With a network that is predominantly radial and experiences low reliability levels, one would thus expect reliability analysis to feature significantly in the assessment of the proposed DG plants. This is however not the case. This paper, uses reliability analysis to assess the impact of different evacuation options of the proposed DG plant on its dispatch levels. The evacuation options were selected based on infrastructure options in other locations with similar solar irradiances as the planned DG location. Outage data were collected and analyzed using the chi square method. It was found to be variable and fitting to different Probability Distribution Functions (PDF). Using stochastic methods, a model that incorporates the PDFs was developed to compute the reliability indices. These were assessed using chi square and found to be variable and fitting different PDFs as well. The viability of the project is reviewed based on Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and the anticipated project payback periods for any considered evacuation line. The results of the study are also reviewed for the benefit of other stakeholders like the customers, the utility and the regulatory body.
文摘First,the state space tree method for finding communication network overall re-liability is presented.It directly generates one disjoint tree multilevel polynomial of a networkgraph.Its advantages are smaller computational effort(its computing time complexity is O(en_l),where e is the number of edges and n_l is the number of leaves)and shorter resulting expression.Second,based on it an exact decomposition algorithm for finding communication network overallreliability is presented by applying the hypergraph theory.If we use it to carry out the m-timedecomposition of a network graph,the communication network scale which can be analyzed by acomputer can be extended to m-fold.
基金Natural Science Funds for the Innovative Research Group of China Under Grant No.50621062
文摘The seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks has received considerable attention and been widely studied. In this paper, on the basis of an original recursive decomposition algorithm, an improved analytical approach to evaluate the seismic reliability of large lifeline systems is presented. The proposed algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the sink of a network as decomposition policy. Using the Boolean laws of set operation and the probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process is constructed in which the disjoint minimal path set and the disjoint minimal cut set are simultaneously enumerated. As the result, a probabilistic inequality can be used to provide results that satisfy a prescribed error bound. During the decomposition process, different from the original recursive decomposition algorithm which only removes edges to simplify the network, the proposed algorithm simplifies the network by merging nodes into sources and removing edges. As a result, the proposed algorithm can obtain simpler networks. Moreover, for a network owning s-independent components in its component set, two network reduction techniques are introduced to speed up the proposed algorithm. A series of case studies, including an actual water distribution network and a large urban gas system, are calculated using the proposed algorithm. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides a useful probabilistic analysis method for the seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks.
文摘As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple programming. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy neural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved, and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U22A20594)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.B230205028)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX23_0694).
文摘The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61761011)Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(Grant No.2020GXNSFBA297078).
文摘In the graph signal processing(GSP)framework,distributed algorithms are highly desirable in processing signals defined on large-scale networks.However,in most existing distributed algorithms,all nodes homogeneously perform the local computation,which calls for heavy computational and communication costs.Moreover,in many real-world networks,such as those with straggling nodes,the homogeneous manner may result in serious delay or even failure.To this end,we propose active network decomposition algorithms to select non-straggling nodes(normal nodes)that perform the main computation and communication across the network.To accommodate the decomposition in different kinds of networks,two different approaches are developed,one is centralized decomposition that leverages the adjacency of the network and the other is distributed decomposition that employs the indicator message transmission between neighboring nodes,which constitutes the main contribution of this paper.By incorporating the active decomposition scheme,a distributed Newton method is employed to solve the least squares problem in GSP,where the Hessian inverse is approximately evaluated by patching a series of inverses of local Hessian matrices each of which is governed by one normal node.The proposed algorithm inherits the fast convergence of the second-order algorithms while maintains low computational and communication cost.Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to propose a computational technique for evaluating the reliability of networks subject to stochastic failures. In this computation, a mathematical model is provided using a technique which incorporates the effect of the factoring decomposition theorem using polygon-to-chain and series-parallel reductions. The algorithm proceeds by identifying iteratively one of seven polygons and when it is discovered, the polygon is immediately removed and replaced by a simple chain after having changed the individual values of the reliability of each edge and each node of the polygon. Theoretically, the mathematical development follows the results presented by Satyanarayana & Wood and Theologou & Carlier. The computation process is recursively performed and less constrained in term of execution time and memory space, and generates an exact value of the reliability.
基金supported by the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (No. 05AZ74)the Shanghai Science and Technology Committee (No. 04JC14035)
文摘It is a non-polynomial complexity problem to calculate connectivity of the complex network. When the system reliability cannot be expressed as a function of element reliability, we have to apply some heuristic methods for optimization based on connectivity of the network. The calculation structure of connectivity of complex network is analyzed in the paper. The coefficient matrixes of Taylor second order expansion of the system connectivity is generated based on the calculation structure of connectivity of complex network. An optimal schedule is achieved based on genetic algorithms （GA）. Fitness of seeds is calculated using the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity. Precise connectivity of the optimal schedule and the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity can be achieved by the approved Minty method or the recursive decomposition algorithm. When error between approximate connectivity and the precise value exceeds the assigned value, the optimization process is continued using GA, and the Taylor function of system connectivity needs to be renewed. The optimization process is called iterative GA. Iterative GA can be used in the large network for optimal reliability attribution. One temporary optimal result will be generated every time in the iteration process. These temporary optimal results approach the real optimal results. They can be regarded as a group of approximate optimal results useful in the real project.
文摘This study involves the development of an analytical model for understanding the behavior of the extended, stiffened end-plate moment connections with eight high strength bolts. Modeling of the connection as an assemblage of finite elements (FE) used for load deformation analysis, with material, and contact nonlinearities are developed. Results from the FE mathematical model are verified with results from the ANSYS computer program as well as with the test results. Sensitivity and feasibility studies are carried out. Significant geometry and force related variables are introduced;and by varying the geometric variables of the connections within a practical range, a matrix of test cases is obtained. Maximum end-plate separation, maximum bending stresses in the end-plate, and the forces from the connection bolts for these test cases are obtained. From the FE analysis, a database is produced to collect results for the artificial neural network analysis. Finally, salient features of the optimized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) via Genetic Algorithm (GA) analysis are introduced and implemented with the aim of predicting the overall behavior of the connection.
基金supported by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission Clinical Research Program (20214Y0020)the General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai Municipality (22ZR1414600)the Young Health Talents Program of Shanghai Municipality (2022YQ076).
文摘Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission.Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the spreading process of infectious diseases.We used Baidu Migration data for the whole year of 2021 to build mobility networks.The nodes of the network represent cities,and the edges represent the population flow between cities.By applying the k-shell decomposition and the Louvain algorithm,we could get the k-shell values for each city and community partition.Then,we identified the most efficient nodes or pathways in a complex network by generating random networks.Furthermore,we analyzed the eigenvalue of the migration matrix to find the nodes that have the most impact on the network.We also found the consistency between k-shell value and eigenvalue through Kendall's t test.The main result is that in Spring Festival and National Day,the network is at higher risk of an infectious disease outbreak and the Yangtze River Delta is at the highest risk of an epidemic all year around.Shanghai is the most significant node in both k-shell value and eigenvalue analysis.The spatiotemporal property of the network should be taken into account to model the transmission of infectious diseases more accurately.
文摘In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is called the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM). This method is readily applicable when the function between the input and the output of the system is explicit. However, the situation is much more involved when it is necessary to perform the evaluation of implicit function between the input and the output of the system through numerical models. In this work, we propose a technique that combines Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) to evaluate the Probability Density Function (PDF) of response where the function between the input and the output of the system is implicit. This technique is based on the numerical simulations of the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) using an interface between Finite Element software and Matlab. Some problems of structures are treated in order to prove the applicability of the proposed technique. Moreover, the obtained results are compared to those obtained by the reference method of Monte Carlo. A second aim of this work is to develop an algorithm of global optimization using the local method SQP, because of its effectiveness and its rapidity of convergence. For this reason, we have combined the method SQP with the Multi start method. This developed algorithm is tested on test functions comparing with other methods such as the method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In order to test the applicability of the proposed approach, a structure is optimized under reliability constraints.
基金Project(60371046) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(9140C0301060C03001) supported by the National Defense Science and Technology Foundation of Key Laboratory, China
文摘Based on a method combined artificial neural network (ANN) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability of plastic ball grid array (PBGA) solder joints was studied. The simulation experiments of accelerated thermal cycling test were performed by ANSYS software. Based on orthogonal array experiments, a back-propagation artificial neural network (BPNN) was used to establish the nonlinear multivariate relationship between thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability and control factors. Then, PSO was applied to obtaining the optimal levels of control factors by using the output of BPNN as the affinity measure. The results show that the control factors, such as print circuit board (PCB) size, PCB thickness, substrate size, substrate thickness, PCB coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), substrate CTE, silicon die CTE, and solder joint CTE, have a great influence on thermo-mechanical fatigue reliability of PBGA solder joints. The ratio of signal to noise of ANN-PSO method is 51.77 dB and its error is 33.3% less than that of Taguchi method. Moreover, the running time of ANN-PSO method is only 2% of that of the BPNN. These conclusions are verified by the confirmative experiments.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51275138)the Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Education (No. 12531109)+1 种基金the funding of Hong Kong Scholars Programs (Nos. XJ2015002 and G-YZ90)China’s Postdoctoral Science Funding (No. 2015M580037)
文摘To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influencing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM) was proposed for multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability. The mathematical model of AMRSM was established and the basic principle of multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability with AMRSM was given. The important parameters of turbine blisk failures are obtained by the multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis of turbine blisk. Through the reliability sensitivity analyses of multiple failure modes (deformation, stress and strain) with the proposed method considering fluid-thermal-solid interaction, it is shown that the comprehensive reliability of turbine blisk is 0.9931 when the allowable deformation, stress and strain are 3.7 x 10(-3) m, 1.0023 x 10(9) Pa and 1.05 x 10(-2) m/m, respectively; the main impact factors of turbine blisk failure are gas velocity, gas temperature and rotational speed. As demonstrated in the comparison of methods (Monte Carlo (MC) method, traditional response surface method (RSM), multiple response surface method (MRSM) and AMRSM), the proposed AMRSM improves computational efficiency with acceptable computational accuracy. The efforts of this study provide the AMRSM with high precision and efficiency for multi-failure mode reliability analysis, and offer a useful insight for the reliability optimization design of multi-failure mode structure. (C) 2016 Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
文摘Spontaneous combustion of coal increases the temperature in adjoining overburden strata of coal seams and poses a challenge when loading blastholes.This condition,known as hot-hole blasting,is dangerous due to the increased possibility of premature explosions in loaded blastholes.Thus,it is crucial to load the blastholes with an appropriate amount of explosives within a short period to avoid premature detonation caused by high temperatures of blastholes.Additionally,it will help achieve the desired fragment size.This study tried to ascertain the most influencial variables of mean fragment size and their optimum values adopted for blasting in a fiery seam.Data on blast design,rock mass,and fragmentation of 100 blasts in fiery seams of a coal mine were collected and used to develop mean fragmentation prediction models using soft computational techniques.The coefficient of determination(R^(2)),root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean square error(MSE),variance account for(VAF)and coefficient of efficiency in percentage(CE)were calculated to validate the results.It indicates that the random forest algorithm(RFA)outperforms the artificial neural network(ANN),response surface method(RSM),and decision tree(DT).The values of R^(2),RMSE,MAE,MSE,VAF,and CE for RFA are 0.94,0.034,0.027,0.001,93.58,and 93.01,respectively.Multiple parametric sensitivity analyses(MPSAs)of the input variables showed that the Schmidt hammer rebound number and spacing-to-burden ratio are the most influencial variables for the blast fragment size.The analysis was finally used to define the best blast design variables to achieve optimum fragment size from blasting.The optimum factor values for RFA of S/B,ld/B and ls/ld are 1.03,1.85 and 0.7,respectively.
