By applying the system analysis principle and mathematical modeling technique to knowledge expression system for crop cultural management, the fundamental relationships and quantitative algorithms of wheat growth and ...By applying the system analysis principle and mathematical modeling technique to knowledge expression system for crop cultural management, the fundamental relationships and quantitative algorithms of wheat growth and management indices to variety types, ecological environments and production levels were analysed and extracted, and a dynamic knowledge model with temporal and spatial characters for wheat management(WheatKnow)was developed. By adopting the soft component characteristics as non language relevance , re-utilization and portable system maintenance. and by further integrating the wheat growth simulation model(WheatGrow)and intelligent system for wheat management, a comprehensive and digital knowledge model, growth model and component-based decision support system for wheat management(MBDSSWM)was established on the platforms of Visual C++ and Visual Basic. The MBDSSWM realized the effective integration and coupling of the prediction and decision-making functions for digital crop management.展开更多
Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementati...Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system（DSS） that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links： regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C＋＋. The DSS has four remarkable features：（1） editable land use maps to assist decision-making;（2） conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources;（3） interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and（4） links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.展开更多
An AI-aided simulation system embedded in a model-based, aspiration-led decision support system NY-IEDSS is reported. The NY-IEDSS is designed for mid-term development strategic study of the Nanyang Region in Henan, C...An AI-aided simulation system embedded in a model-based, aspiration-led decision support system NY-IEDSS is reported. The NY-IEDSS is designed for mid-term development strategic study of the Nanyang Region in Henan, China, and is getting beyond its prototype stage under the decision maker's (the end user) orientation. The integration of simulation model system, decision analysis and expert system for decision support in the system implementation was reviewed. The intent of the paper is to provide insight as to how system capability and acceptability can be enhanced by this integration. Moreover, emphasis is placed on problem orientation in applying the method.展开更多
Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as dev...Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as developing a real one requires lots of manpower and resources. BMDS is a typical complex system for its nonlinear, adaptive and uncertainty characteristics. The agent-based modeling method is well suited for the complex system whose overall behaviors are determined by interactions among individual elements. A multi-agent decision support system (DSS), which includes missile agent, radar agent and command center agent, is established based on the studies of structure and function of BMDS. Considering the constraints brought by radar, intercept missile, offensive missile and commander, the objective function of DSS is established. In order to dynamically generate the optimal interception plan, the variable neighborhood negative selection particle swarm optimization (VNNSPSO) algorithm is proposed to support the decision making of DSS. The proposed algorithm is compared with the standard PSO, constriction factor PSO (CFPSO), inertia weight linear decrease PSO (LDPSO), variable neighborhood PSO (VNPSO) algorithm from the aspects of convergence rate, iteration number, average fitness value and standard deviation. The simulation results verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The multi-agent DSS is developed through the Repast simulation platform and the constructed DSS can generate intercept plans automatically and support three-dimensional dynamic display of missile defense process.展开更多
Traffic congestion problem is one of the major problems that face many transportation decision makers for urban areas. The problem has many impacts on social, economical and development aspects of urban areas. Hence t...Traffic congestion problem is one of the major problems that face many transportation decision makers for urban areas. The problem has many impacts on social, economical and development aspects of urban areas. Hence the solution to this problem is not straight forward. It requires a lot of effort, expertise, time and cost that sometime are not available. Most of the existing transportation planning software, specially the most advanced ones, requires personnel with lots practical transportation planning experience and with high level of education and training. In this paper we propose a comprehensive framework for an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) for Traffic Congestion Management System that utilizes a state of the art transportation network equilibrium modeling and providing an easy to use GIS-based interaction environment. The developed IDSS reduces the dependability on the expertise and level of education of the transportation planners, transportation engineers, or any transportation decision makers.展开更多
Decision support systems(DSS)based on physically based numerical models are standard tools used by water services and utilities.However,few DSS based on holistic approaches combining distributed hydrological,hydraulic...Decision support systems(DSS)based on physically based numerical models are standard tools used by water services and utilities.However,few DSS based on holistic approaches combining distributed hydrological,hydraulic,and hydrogeological models are operationally exploited.This holistic approach was adopted for the development of the AquaVar DSS,used for water resource management in the French Mediterranean Var watershed.The year 2019 marked the initial use of the DSS in its operational environment.Over the next 5 years,multiple hydrological events allowed to test the performance of the DSS.The results show that the tool is capable of simulating peak flows associated with two extreme rainfall events(storms Alex and Aline).For a moderate flood,the real-time functionality was able to simulate forecast discharges 26 h before the flood peak,with a maximum local error of 30%.Finally,simulations for the drought period 2022-2023 highlighted the essential need for DSS to evolve in line with changing climatic conditions,which give rise to unprecedented hydrological processes.The lessons learned from these first 5 years of AquaVar use under operational conditions are synthesized,addressing various topics such as DSS modularity,evolution,data positioning,technology,and governance.展开更多
This paper reports an aspiration-directed, model-based decision support system (AMDSS) integrated with a knowledge-based simulation system. The system is designed to study China's mid-range economic development st...This paper reports an aspiration-directed, model-based decision support system (AMDSS) integrated with a knowledge-based simulation system. The system is designed to study China's mid-range economic development strategy. The capacity of the system is enhanced by the knowledge-based component which provides a knowledge-based simulation environment for model management. Currently the system has passed the stage of prototype and achieves its implementation capacity. The paper first presents the mathematical aspects of decision making including aspiration-directed decision making, then discusses the architecture of the system. The purpose of the paper is to provide insights into how such an integrated system could provide decision support for complex decision analysis.展开更多
This study aimed to develop a clinical Decision Support Model (DSM) which is software that provides physicians and other healthcare stakeholders with patient-specific assessments and recommendation in aiding clinical ...This study aimed to develop a clinical Decision Support Model (DSM) which is software that provides physicians and other healthcare stakeholders with patient-specific assessments and recommendation in aiding clinical decision-making while discharging Breast cancer patient since the diagnostics and discharge problem is often overwhelming for a clinician to process at the point of care or in urgent situations. The model incorporates Breast cancer patient-specific data that are well-structured having been attained from a prestudy’s administered questionnaires and current evidence-based guidelines. Obtained dataset of the prestudy’s questionnaires is processed via data mining techniques to generate an optimal clinical decision tree classifier model which serves physicians in enhancing their decision-making process while discharging a breast cancer patient on basic cognitive processes involved in medical thinking hence new, better-formed, and superior outcomes. The model also improves the quality of assessments by constructing predictive discharging models from code attributes enabling timely detection of deterioration in the quality of health of a breast cancer patient upon discharge. The outcome of implementing this study is a decision support model that bridges the gap occasioned by less informed clinical Breast cancer discharge that is based merely on experts’ opinions which is insufficiently reinforced for better treatment outcomes. The reinforced discharge decision for better treatment outcomes is through timely deployment of the decision support model to work hand in hand with the expertise in deriving an integrative discharge decision and has been an agreed strategy to eliminate the foreseeable deteriorating quality of health for a discharged breast cancer patients and surging rates of mortality blamed on mistrusted discharge decisions. In this paper, we will discuss breast cancer clinical knowledge, data mining techniques, the classifying model accuracy, and the Python web-based decision support model that predicts avoidable re-hospitalization of a breast cancer patient through an informed clinical discharging support model.展开更多
The development of spatial decision support for environmental resource management,e.g.forest and agroecosystem management,biodiversity conservation,or hydrological planning,started in the 1980s and was the focus of ma...The development of spatial decision support for environmental resource management,e.g.forest and agroecosystem management,biodiversity conservation,or hydrological planning,started in the 1980s and was the focus of many research groups in the 1990s.The combined availability of spatial data and communication,computing,positioning,geographic information system(GIS)-and remote sensing(RS)-technologies has been responsible for the implementation of complex SDSS since the late 1990s.The regional GIS-based modelling of environmental resources,and therefore ecosystems in general,requires setting-up an extensive geo and model database.Spatial data on topography,soil,climate,land use,hydrology,flora,fauna and anthropogenic activities have to be available.Therefore,GIS-and RS-technologies are of central importance for spatial data handling and analysis.In this context,the structure of spatial environmental information systems(SEIS)is introduced.In SEIS,the input data for environmental resource management are organised in at least seven subinformation systems:base geodata information system(BGDIS),climate information system(CIS),soil information system(SIS),land use information system(LUIS),hydrological information system(HIS),spatial/temporal biodiversity information system(STBIS),forest/agricultural management information system(FAMIS).The major tasks of a SEIS are to(i)provide environmental resource information on a regional level,(ii)analyse the impact of anthropogenic activities and(iii)simulate scenarios of different impacts.展开更多
Sustainability is a key objective of water resources management and this paper describes a modelling and decision support framework that achieves this, illustrated by applications on the UK Thames and Mekong river bas...Sustainability is a key objective of water resources management and this paper describes a modelling and decision support framework that achieves this, illustrated by applications on the UK Thames and Mekong river basins. The decision support framework contains several modules, including an interactive user＇s interface linked to a GIS, a geo-database, knowledge base, simulation models and optimization procedures. Based on the analysis of scenarios and proposed interventions, efficient modelling and optimization tools form a comprehensive integrated decision support framework for the analysis and operational management of water resources in the river basin, our emphasis has been on a practical implementation through careful screening of alternatives, consideration of the institutional framework and direct involvement of stakeholders in the decision making process. Operating in this environment is transparent, reproducible and auditable, securing the trust of all interested parties. This paper discusses its applications to water utilisation on the Mekong river basin and drought management of the Lower Thames stored reservoir system.展开更多
The use of a crop model like STICS for appropriate management decision support requires a good knowledge of all the parameters of the model. Among them, the soil parameters are difficult to know at each point of inter...The use of a crop model like STICS for appropriate management decision support requires a good knowledge of all the parameters of the model. Among them, the soil parameters are difficult to know at each point of interest and costly techniques may be used to measure them. It is therefore important to know which soil parameters need to be determined. It can be stated that those which affect significantly the output variable deserve an accurate determination while those which slightly affect the model output variable do not. This paper demonstrates how a global sensitivity analysis method based on variance decomposition can be applied on soil parameters in order to divide them in the two categories. The Extended FAST method applied to the crop model STICS and a set of 13 soil parameters first allows to calculate the part of variance explained by each soil parameter (giving global sensitivity indices of the soil parameters) and the coefficient of variation of the output variables (measuring the effect of the parameter uncertainty on each variable). These metrics are therefore used for deciding on the importance of the parameter value measurement. Different output variables (Leaf Area Index and chlorophyll content) are evaluated at different stages of interest while others (crop yield, grain protein content, soil mineral nitrogen) are evaluated at harvest. The analysis is applied on two different annual crops (wheat and sugar beet), two contrasted weather and two types of soil depth. When the uncertainty of the output generated by the soil parameters is large (coefficient of variation > 1/3), only the parameters having a significant global sensitivity indices (higher than 10%) are retained. The results show that the number of soil parameters which deserve an accurate determination can be significantly reduced by the use of this relevant method for appropriate management decision support.展开更多
The paper describes the necessity of application of intelligent technologies to support decisions of more objective problems in human resource management. In this paper, we describe the methodology for personnel selec...The paper describes the necessity of application of intelligent technologies to support decisions of more objective problems in human resource management. In this paper, we describe the methodology for personnel selection problem for the vacancy with regard to the importance and nonequivalence of numerous indicators characterizing the alternatives. The specific features of the selection problem are highlighted, immersing the problem into a fuzzy environment. A fuzzy multicriterial model of the personnel selection problem is proposed. A technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solition (TOPSIS), was applied for evaluation and regulation of alternatives. This technique is based on criteria of qualitative character, which are hierarchically structured by multiple experts to intellectually support decisions made in personnel selection problem. Using TOPSIS method and generated criteria system an experiment was conducted for evaluation of the candidates during solution of hiring problems. The obtained and reviewed results were compared with results obtained using in reality.展开更多
This thesis discusses the importance of equipment maintenance management, then introduces the development tendency of equipment maintenance management. In the end it analyses and studies the design of a computerized m...This thesis discusses the importance of equipment maintenance management, then introduces the development tendency of equipment maintenance management. In the end it analyses and studies the design of a computerized maintenance management system, which offers an integration technique.展开更多
Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of ...Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail) is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.展开更多
针对航班地面保障过程决策能力不足、运行效率低下的问题,提出一种基于国防部体系结构框架(department of defense architecture framework,DoDAF)的航班地面保障过程决策支持模型。从保障作业、保障资源以及二者间关联关系出发,定量描...针对航班地面保障过程决策能力不足、运行效率低下的问题,提出一种基于国防部体系结构框架(department of defense architecture framework,DoDAF)的航班地面保障过程决策支持模型。从保障作业、保障资源以及二者间关联关系出发,定量描述航班地面保障过程,将DoDAF与基于模型的系统工程(model-based systems engineering,MBSE)相结合建立航班地面保障过程决策支持模型,建立决策效用函数,分析航班保障各环节综合保障的效用值。对比实际数据与本文决策支持模型得到的数据,结果表明决策后的撤轮挡时间与目标撤轮档时间的平均绝对误差对比实际撤轮档时间和目标撤轮档时间的平均绝对误差降低1.42 min,均方根误差降低0.95 min,对于不同机型航班,决策后的保障服务时间与计划保障时间相对误差对比决策前分别降低31%、17%和42%,同时可以得到保障时间与保障效用的关系,证明本文提出的决策模型的可行性和有效性。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(30030090)the National 863 Program,China(2001AA115420,2001AA245041).
文摘By applying the system analysis principle and mathematical modeling technique to knowledge expression system for crop cultural management, the fundamental relationships and quantitative algorithms of wheat growth and management indices to variety types, ecological environments and production levels were analysed and extracted, and a dynamic knowledge model with temporal and spatial characters for wheat management(WheatKnow)was developed. By adopting the soft component characteristics as non language relevance , re-utilization and portable system maintenance. and by further integrating the wheat growth simulation model(WheatGrow)and intelligent system for wheat management, a comprehensive and digital knowledge model, growth model and component-based decision support system for wheat management(MBDSSWM)was established on the platforms of Visual C++ and Visual Basic. The MBDSSWM realized the effective integration and coupling of the prediction and decision-making functions for digital crop management.
基金supported by German-Sino bilateral collaboration research project SuMaRiO funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Researchthe support of NSFC-UNEP Project (41361140361): Ecological Responses to Climatic Change and Land-cover Change in Arid and Semiarid Central Asia during the Past 500 Years
文摘Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system（DSS） that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links： regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C＋＋. The DSS has four remarkable features：（1） editable land use maps to assist decision-making;（2） conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources;（3） interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and（4） links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.
文摘An AI-aided simulation system embedded in a model-based, aspiration-led decision support system NY-IEDSS is reported. The NY-IEDSS is designed for mid-term development strategic study of the Nanyang Region in Henan, China, and is getting beyond its prototype stage under the decision maker's (the end user) orientation. The integration of simulation model system, decision analysis and expert system for decision support in the system implementation was reviewed. The intent of the paper is to provide insight as to how system capability and acceptability can be enhanced by this integration. Moreover, emphasis is placed on problem orientation in applying the method.
文摘Ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) is important for its special role in ensuring national security and maintaining strategic balance. Research on modeling and simulation of the BMDS beforehand is essential as developing a real one requires lots of manpower and resources. BMDS is a typical complex system for its nonlinear, adaptive and uncertainty characteristics. The agent-based modeling method is well suited for the complex system whose overall behaviors are determined by interactions among individual elements. A multi-agent decision support system (DSS), which includes missile agent, radar agent and command center agent, is established based on the studies of structure and function of BMDS. Considering the constraints brought by radar, intercept missile, offensive missile and commander, the objective function of DSS is established. In order to dynamically generate the optimal interception plan, the variable neighborhood negative selection particle swarm optimization (VNNSPSO) algorithm is proposed to support the decision making of DSS. The proposed algorithm is compared with the standard PSO, constriction factor PSO (CFPSO), inertia weight linear decrease PSO (LDPSO), variable neighborhood PSO (VNPSO) algorithm from the aspects of convergence rate, iteration number, average fitness value and standard deviation. The simulation results verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The multi-agent DSS is developed through the Repast simulation platform and the constructed DSS can generate intercept plans automatically and support three-dimensional dynamic display of missile defense process.
文摘Traffic congestion problem is one of the major problems that face many transportation decision makers for urban areas. The problem has many impacts on social, economical and development aspects of urban areas. Hence the solution to this problem is not straight forward. It requires a lot of effort, expertise, time and cost that sometime are not available. Most of the existing transportation planning software, specially the most advanced ones, requires personnel with lots practical transportation planning experience and with high level of education and training. In this paper we propose a comprehensive framework for an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) for Traffic Congestion Management System that utilizes a state of the art transportation network equilibrium modeling and providing an easy to use GIS-based interaction environment. The developed IDSS reduces the dependability on the expertise and level of education of the transportation planners, transportation engineers, or any transportation decision makers.
文摘Decision support systems(DSS)based on physically based numerical models are standard tools used by water services and utilities.However,few DSS based on holistic approaches combining distributed hydrological,hydraulic,and hydrogeological models are operationally exploited.This holistic approach was adopted for the development of the AquaVar DSS,used for water resource management in the French Mediterranean Var watershed.The year 2019 marked the initial use of the DSS in its operational environment.Over the next 5 years,multiple hydrological events allowed to test the performance of the DSS.The results show that the tool is capable of simulating peak flows associated with two extreme rainfall events(storms Alex and Aline).For a moderate flood,the real-time functionality was able to simulate forecast discharges 26 h before the flood peak,with a maximum local error of 30%.Finally,simulations for the drought period 2022-2023 highlighted the essential need for DSS to evolve in line with changing climatic conditions,which give rise to unprecedented hydrological processes.The lessons learned from these first 5 years of AquaVar use under operational conditions are synthesized,addressing various topics such as DSS modularity,evolution,data positioning,technology,and governance.
文摘This paper reports an aspiration-directed, model-based decision support system (AMDSS) integrated with a knowledge-based simulation system. The system is designed to study China's mid-range economic development strategy. The capacity of the system is enhanced by the knowledge-based component which provides a knowledge-based simulation environment for model management. Currently the system has passed the stage of prototype and achieves its implementation capacity. The paper first presents the mathematical aspects of decision making including aspiration-directed decision making, then discusses the architecture of the system. The purpose of the paper is to provide insights into how such an integrated system could provide decision support for complex decision analysis.
文摘This study aimed to develop a clinical Decision Support Model (DSM) which is software that provides physicians and other healthcare stakeholders with patient-specific assessments and recommendation in aiding clinical decision-making while discharging Breast cancer patient since the diagnostics and discharge problem is often overwhelming for a clinician to process at the point of care or in urgent situations. The model incorporates Breast cancer patient-specific data that are well-structured having been attained from a prestudy’s administered questionnaires and current evidence-based guidelines. Obtained dataset of the prestudy’s questionnaires is processed via data mining techniques to generate an optimal clinical decision tree classifier model which serves physicians in enhancing their decision-making process while discharging a breast cancer patient on basic cognitive processes involved in medical thinking hence new, better-formed, and superior outcomes. The model also improves the quality of assessments by constructing predictive discharging models from code attributes enabling timely detection of deterioration in the quality of health of a breast cancer patient upon discharge. The outcome of implementing this study is a decision support model that bridges the gap occasioned by less informed clinical Breast cancer discharge that is based merely on experts’ opinions which is insufficiently reinforced for better treatment outcomes. The reinforced discharge decision for better treatment outcomes is through timely deployment of the decision support model to work hand in hand with the expertise in deriving an integrative discharge decision and has been an agreed strategy to eliminate the foreseeable deteriorating quality of health for a discharged breast cancer patients and surging rates of mortality blamed on mistrusted discharge decisions. In this paper, we will discuss breast cancer clinical knowledge, data mining techniques, the classifying model accuracy, and the Python web-based decision support model that predicts avoidable re-hospitalization of a breast cancer patient through an informed clinical discharging support model.
文摘The development of spatial decision support for environmental resource management,e.g.forest and agroecosystem management,biodiversity conservation,or hydrological planning,started in the 1980s and was the focus of many research groups in the 1990s.The combined availability of spatial data and communication,computing,positioning,geographic information system(GIS)-and remote sensing(RS)-technologies has been responsible for the implementation of complex SDSS since the late 1990s.The regional GIS-based modelling of environmental resources,and therefore ecosystems in general,requires setting-up an extensive geo and model database.Spatial data on topography,soil,climate,land use,hydrology,flora,fauna and anthropogenic activities have to be available.Therefore,GIS-and RS-technologies are of central importance for spatial data handling and analysis.In this context,the structure of spatial environmental information systems(SEIS)is introduced.In SEIS,the input data for environmental resource management are organised in at least seven subinformation systems:base geodata information system(BGDIS),climate information system(CIS),soil information system(SIS),land use information system(LUIS),hydrological information system(HIS),spatial/temporal biodiversity information system(STBIS),forest/agricultural management information system(FAMIS).The major tasks of a SEIS are to(i)provide environmental resource information on a regional level,(ii)analyse the impact of anthropogenic activities and(iii)simulate scenarios of different impacts.
文摘Sustainability is a key objective of water resources management and this paper describes a modelling and decision support framework that achieves this, illustrated by applications on the UK Thames and Mekong river basins. The decision support framework contains several modules, including an interactive user＇s interface linked to a GIS, a geo-database, knowledge base, simulation models and optimization procedures. Based on the analysis of scenarios and proposed interventions, efficient modelling and optimization tools form a comprehensive integrated decision support framework for the analysis and operational management of water resources in the river basin, our emphasis has been on a practical implementation through careful screening of alternatives, consideration of the institutional framework and direct involvement of stakeholders in the decision making process. Operating in this environment is transparent, reproducible and auditable, securing the trust of all interested parties. This paper discusses its applications to water utilisation on the Mekong river basin and drought management of the Lower Thames stored reservoir system.
文摘The use of a crop model like STICS for appropriate management decision support requires a good knowledge of all the parameters of the model. Among them, the soil parameters are difficult to know at each point of interest and costly techniques may be used to measure them. It is therefore important to know which soil parameters need to be determined. It can be stated that those which affect significantly the output variable deserve an accurate determination while those which slightly affect the model output variable do not. This paper demonstrates how a global sensitivity analysis method based on variance decomposition can be applied on soil parameters in order to divide them in the two categories. The Extended FAST method applied to the crop model STICS and a set of 13 soil parameters first allows to calculate the part of variance explained by each soil parameter (giving global sensitivity indices of the soil parameters) and the coefficient of variation of the output variables (measuring the effect of the parameter uncertainty on each variable). These metrics are therefore used for deciding on the importance of the parameter value measurement. Different output variables (Leaf Area Index and chlorophyll content) are evaluated at different stages of interest while others (crop yield, grain protein content, soil mineral nitrogen) are evaluated at harvest. The analysis is applied on two different annual crops (wheat and sugar beet), two contrasted weather and two types of soil depth. When the uncertainty of the output generated by the soil parameters is large (coefficient of variation > 1/3), only the parameters having a significant global sensitivity indices (higher than 10%) are retained. The results show that the number of soil parameters which deserve an accurate determination can be significantly reduced by the use of this relevant method for appropriate management decision support.
文摘The paper describes the necessity of application of intelligent technologies to support decisions of more objective problems in human resource management. In this paper, we describe the methodology for personnel selection problem for the vacancy with regard to the importance and nonequivalence of numerous indicators characterizing the alternatives. The specific features of the selection problem are highlighted, immersing the problem into a fuzzy environment. A fuzzy multicriterial model of the personnel selection problem is proposed. A technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solition (TOPSIS), was applied for evaluation and regulation of alternatives. This technique is based on criteria of qualitative character, which are hierarchically structured by multiple experts to intellectually support decisions made in personnel selection problem. Using TOPSIS method and generated criteria system an experiment was conducted for evaluation of the candidates during solution of hiring problems. The obtained and reviewed results were compared with results obtained using in reality.
文摘This thesis discusses the importance of equipment maintenance management, then introduces the development tendency of equipment maintenance management. In the end it analyses and studies the design of a computerized maintenance management system, which offers an integration technique.
文摘Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail) is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.
文摘针对航班地面保障过程决策能力不足、运行效率低下的问题,提出一种基于国防部体系结构框架(department of defense architecture framework,DoDAF)的航班地面保障过程决策支持模型。从保障作业、保障资源以及二者间关联关系出发,定量描述航班地面保障过程,将DoDAF与基于模型的系统工程(model-based systems engineering,MBSE)相结合建立航班地面保障过程决策支持模型,建立决策效用函数,分析航班保障各环节综合保障的效用值。对比实际数据与本文决策支持模型得到的数据,结果表明决策后的撤轮挡时间与目标撤轮档时间的平均绝对误差对比实际撤轮档时间和目标撤轮档时间的平均绝对误差降低1.42 min,均方根误差降低0.95 min,对于不同机型航班,决策后的保障服务时间与计划保障时间相对误差对比决策前分别降低31%、17%和42%,同时可以得到保障时间与保障效用的关系,证明本文提出的决策模型的可行性和有效性。
