Drought risk assessment plays a crucial role in effective drought management.However,it is often challenging due to the intricate relationships among various indicators and the lack of practical guidance.This study pr...Drought risk assessment plays a crucial role in effective drought management.However,it is often challenging due to the intricate relationships among various indicators and the lack of practical guidance.This study presents a drought risk assessment model developed using the Semi-partial Quadratic Subtraction Set Pair Potential(SQSSPP)method,which is derived from the theory of set pair analysis.The indicator system comprises 21 indicators divided into four subsystems.The SQSSPP method utilizes uncertainty information in the overall development trend of regional drought risk states by extracting connection numbers from the Sub-traction Set Pair Potential(SSPP),improving the reliability of evaluation results.The SQSSPP method is validated through a case study of Suzhou City,China,from 2007 to 2017.Three grades are used to evaluate comprehensive drought risk.The result shows an overall decreasing trend over time,with a level III risk in 2010 and consistently at level II from 2011 to 2017.Indicators in the hazard and resilience subsystems are the primary factors influencing drought risk in the Suzhou City.Specific indicators requiring emphasis for improvement are identified,including arable land rate,agricultural population ratio,reservoir regulation rate,current water supply capacity,and irrigation index.The SQSSPP method not only provides targeted drought risk assessment but also provides valuable guidance for future water resource management.While the study focuses on Suzhou City,the proposed approach is applicable to broader-scale risk management evaluations and practices.展开更多
Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China.Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of t...Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China.Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk assessments.Based on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses,we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss data.With this model,we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought risk.Regions with high(extreme high)drought risk account for 4.3%of China’s area.Five significant high-risk areas have been identified:Northeast China,North China,the east part of Northwest China,the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest China.Areas with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province,accounting for 32%of the total area,followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,with 26%of total area.The contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified,which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of drought.We recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.展开更多
Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought los...Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.展开更多
Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2...Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.展开更多
By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-...By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.展开更多
Kenya has integrated several international, continental, and regional strategies and policies into its national and county programs to address climate-related disasters in livestock systems in pastoralism. This study ...Kenya has integrated several international, continental, and regional strategies and policies into its national and county programs to address climate-related disasters in livestock systems in pastoralism. This study reviews how these policy instruments have been integrated into local laws and the viability of hay production, a drought risk reduction strategy. The methodology used was a desktop review of policies, a KAP survey using a quantitative and qualitative questionnaire on 354 pastoralists and key informants selected using stratified random sampling, and a cost-benefit analysis of 23 hay farms in Kajiado-Central sub-county. The findings established that Kenya had adopted adequate legal instruments to support disasters in general and droughts specifically. However, the strategies are not elaborated into practical guidance resulting in poor implementation. For instance, the flagship hay production project in Kajiado focuses on building infrastructure on the government farms, with little support going to the actual hay farmers. In addition, staffing levels of technical officers are too low to adequately translate the strategies into activities that address the hay farmer’s pain points, namely the lack of a stable hay market, expensive capital assets and machinery, lack of quality forage seeds, and extension education. This paper recommends reviewing the implementation of the ongoing hay flagship projects to address the hay enterprise’s profitability and elaborating the strategies down to guidance that can be easily rolled out cognizant of the low staffing levels. Public-private partnerships can also address some challenges by stabilizing the hay markets, providing storage, and maintaining good-quality hay. In addition, the strategic feed reserve should include hay for pastoral livestock systems under drought risk reduction programs. Thus, targeted, relevant projects are critical if private hay enterprises are a sustainable drought risk reduction strategy.展开更多
Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk leve...Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.展开更多
Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by...Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by drought.Motivated by formulating drought risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change on the HHH Plain,therefore,the present study aims to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat drought risk under multiple climate scenarios using the Environmental Policy Impact Climate(EPIC)model.Based on the well-validated EPIC model,the drought hazard intensity(dHI),physical vulnerability(pV),and drought risk(dR)of the HHH Plain from 2010 to 2099 are assessed.Temporally,the dR showed an increasing trend in the long term,the high dR areas increased by 0.63%and 1.18%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Spatially,dR showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north whether under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario.Comparatively,the dR was 0.211 under the RCP4.5 scenario which was slightly higher than that under the RCP8.5 scenario,i.e.0.207.The Huanghuai Plain agricultural subregion will be a high dHI-pV-dR region.The temperature increase might be the main factor affecting the wheat drought risk.展开更多
Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas.However,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—define...Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas.However,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution.With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model,we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5°resolution.In this framework,the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations(for example,yield statistics,losses caused by drought)and the literature.Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated.To evaluate the applicability of the framework,a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5℃warming was conducted.At 1.5℃warming,the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable(high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics),with only a minor negative(-0.93%)impact on global maize yield.The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world.Therefore,the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale,future-oriented crop drought risk assessment,and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.展开更多
[Objective]The study aimed to assess and zone the drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui Province. [Method] The zoning factors were chosen from three aspects of disaster-causing factors,disaster-bearing bodies and envi...[Objective]The study aimed to assess and zone the drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui Province. [Method] The zoning factors were chosen from three aspects of disaster-causing factors,disaster-bearing bodies and environment conducive to drought,and then their data were standardized,rasterized and graded. Using analytic hierarchy process（ AHP）,we determined the weight of each index at various levels and then established the assessment models of drought intensity,sensitivity,vulnerability and resistance of winter wheat in the whole growth period and at heading and filling stage. Finally,the zoning map of drought risk for winter wheat in Anhui Province was obtained using the farmland data mask of Anhui Province. [Result]The drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui Province in the whole growth period and at heading and filling stage was divided into six grades,which reflected the distribution characteristics and regional difference of drought risk for winter wheat in Anhui Province. Drought risk was the maximum in the main producing areas of winter wheat in the north of Huaihe River,followed by the area along Huaihe River and the area between Yangtze River and Huaihe River,while the drought risk of winter wheat was very low in the south of Anhui Province. The drought risk of winter wheat was markedly affected by the sensitivity to drought,vulnerability and the drought resistance of winter wheat. [Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for rational distribution of winter wheat and establishment of strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation.展开更多
The risk regionalization of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting in Qujing City was studied to provide reference for drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages in flue-cured tobacco planting,disaster reductio...The risk regionalization of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting in Qujing City was studied to provide reference for drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages in flue-cured tobacco planting,disaster reduction,and disaster relief services.According to the production practice of flue-cured tobacco and local climate analysis,the risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-breeding environment,vulnerability of carriers,and disaster prevention and reduction capability were analyzed and evaluated quantitatively.Secondly,starting from the formation mechanism of drought,a risk assessment model of the meteorological disaster was established by GIS technology.Finally,the risk assessment and regionalization of drought in the critical periods for drought-stricken flue-cured tobacco (transplanting period,root extending stage and vigorous growth period) in Qujing City were carried out.The results showed that in Qujing City,the risk areas of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting were divided into five grades in the transplanting period and six grades in the root extending stage and vigorous growth period.展开更多
The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disas...The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation (1960-2009) of China and associated regional socio-economic data, the spatial and temporal pattern of drought in China was assessed by applying a conceptual framework of disaster sys...Based on the monthly precipitation (1960-2009) of China and associated regional socio-economic data, the spatial and temporal pattern of drought in China was assessed by applying a conceptual framework of disaster system theory, which used the hazard and vulnerability as two variables to define the risk of drought. Sichuan province suffered from the severe risk of drought, while Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou provinces, and Chongqing city could be classified as the moderate drought risk area of China. Additionally, Tibet plateau in the Northwest of China had the lowest risk of drought. The integrated data from this result provided the valuable information to cope with the drought in respect of optimization utilization of land resources at the regional scale.展开更多
Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of dr...Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of drought in Guilin. Afterwards, by using the method of disaster risk assessment, the disaster-causing factors, breed disasters environment and fragility of hazard-bearing body of Guilin drought have been analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation on drought disaster has been made. The results show that above medium drought in Guilin mainly appeared in au- tumn, followed by winter, while Guilin only suffered from slight drought in spring; the principal period of drought occurrence in Guilin was six years, while its secondary period was two years; on the whole, drought risk was high in the southeast and low in the northwest.展开更多
The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, d...The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.展开更多
基金Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,Grant/Award Numbers:2308085US13,2208085US03National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:U2243228+1 种基金the Belt and Road Special Foundation of the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Grant/Award Number:2022nkms04The Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project,Grant/Award Number:23YJCZH332。
文摘Drought risk assessment plays a crucial role in effective drought management.However,it is often challenging due to the intricate relationships among various indicators and the lack of practical guidance.This study presents a drought risk assessment model developed using the Semi-partial Quadratic Subtraction Set Pair Potential(SQSSPP)method,which is derived from the theory of set pair analysis.The indicator system comprises 21 indicators divided into four subsystems.The SQSSPP method utilizes uncertainty information in the overall development trend of regional drought risk states by extracting connection numbers from the Sub-traction Set Pair Potential(SSPP),improving the reliability of evaluation results.The SQSSPP method is validated through a case study of Suzhou City,China,from 2007 to 2017.Three grades are used to evaluate comprehensive drought risk.The result shows an overall decreasing trend over time,with a level III risk in 2010 and consistently at level II from 2011 to 2017.Indicators in the hazard and resilience subsystems are the primary factors influencing drought risk in the Suzhou City.Specific indicators requiring emphasis for improvement are identified,including arable land rate,agricultural population ratio,reservoir regulation rate,current water supply capacity,and irrigation index.The SQSSPP method not only provides targeted drought risk assessment but also provides valuable guidance for future water resource management.While the study focuses on Suzhou City,the proposed approach is applicable to broader-scale risk management evaluations and practices.
基金the China National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2019YFA0606900)the National Science Founda-tion of China(Grant No.41771536)the National Science Founda-tion for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(Grant No.51425903)。
文摘Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China.Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk assessments.Based on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses,we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss data.With this model,we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought risk.Regions with high(extreme high)drought risk account for 4.3%of China’s area.Five significant high-risk areas have been identified:Northeast China,North China,the east part of Northwest China,the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest China.Areas with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province,accounting for 32%of the total area,followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,with 26%of total area.The contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified,which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of drought.We recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.
基金Under the auspices of Key Program of National Key Technology R & D Program of China (No. 2007BAB28B01)
文摘Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31801315,72061147001 and 31871581)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0300201)+1 种基金the Major Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China(18ZDA074)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(2019TC015).
文摘Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Gra Nos.41305056,41175084,and 41375069)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China(Grant N GYHY201506001)
文摘By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.
文摘Kenya has integrated several international, continental, and regional strategies and policies into its national and county programs to address climate-related disasters in livestock systems in pastoralism. This study reviews how these policy instruments have been integrated into local laws and the viability of hay production, a drought risk reduction strategy. The methodology used was a desktop review of policies, a KAP survey using a quantitative and qualitative questionnaire on 354 pastoralists and key informants selected using stratified random sampling, and a cost-benefit analysis of 23 hay farms in Kajiado-Central sub-county. The findings established that Kenya had adopted adequate legal instruments to support disasters in general and droughts specifically. However, the strategies are not elaborated into practical guidance resulting in poor implementation. For instance, the flagship hay production project in Kajiado focuses on building infrastructure on the government farms, with little support going to the actual hay farmers. In addition, staffing levels of technical officers are too low to adequately translate the strategies into activities that address the hay farmer’s pain points, namely the lack of a stable hay market, expensive capital assets and machinery, lack of quality forage seeds, and extension education. This paper recommends reviewing the implementation of the ongoing hay flagship projects to address the hay enterprise’s profitability and elaborating the strategies down to guidance that can be easily rolled out cognizant of the low staffing levels. Public-private partnerships can also address some challenges by stabilizing the hay markets, providing storage, and maintaining good-quality hay. In addition, the strategic feed reserve should include hay for pastoral livestock systems under drought risk reduction programs. Thus, targeted, relevant projects are critical if private hay enterprises are a sustainable drought risk reduction strategy.
文摘Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.
基金This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41877521,41271515]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0602402].
文摘Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by drought.Motivated by formulating drought risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change on the HHH Plain,therefore,the present study aims to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat drought risk under multiple climate scenarios using the Environmental Policy Impact Climate(EPIC)model.Based on the well-validated EPIC model,the drought hazard intensity(dHI),physical vulnerability(pV),and drought risk(dR)of the HHH Plain from 2010 to 2099 are assessed.Temporally,the dR showed an increasing trend in the long term,the high dR areas increased by 0.63%and 1.18%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Spatially,dR showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north whether under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario.Comparatively,the dR was 0.211 under the RCP4.5 scenario which was slightly higher than that under the RCP8.5 scenario,i.e.0.207.The Huanghuai Plain agricultural subregion will be a high dHI-pV-dR region.The temperature increase might be the main factor affecting the wheat drought risk.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41671501,41901046,91747201)。
文摘Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas.However,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution.With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model,we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5°resolution.In this framework,the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations(for example,yield statistics,losses caused by drought)and the literature.Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated.To evaluate the applicability of the framework,a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5℃warming was conducted.At 1.5℃warming,the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable(high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics),with only a minor negative(-0.93%)impact on global maize yield.The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world.Therefore,the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale,future-oriented crop drought risk assessment,and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.
基金Supported by the Special Project for Meteorological Industry of Ministry of Science and Technology in 2010(GYHY201006027)Yearly Project of Anhui Science and Technology Agency in 2011(10021303032)Major Business Project of Anhui Meteorological Bureau in 2009"Zoning of Agricultural Climate in Anhui Province"
文摘[Objective]The study aimed to assess and zone the drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui Province. [Method] The zoning factors were chosen from three aspects of disaster-causing factors,disaster-bearing bodies and environment conducive to drought,and then their data were standardized,rasterized and graded. Using analytic hierarchy process（ AHP）,we determined the weight of each index at various levels and then established the assessment models of drought intensity,sensitivity,vulnerability and resistance of winter wheat in the whole growth period and at heading and filling stage. Finally,the zoning map of drought risk for winter wheat in Anhui Province was obtained using the farmland data mask of Anhui Province. [Result]The drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui Province in the whole growth period and at heading and filling stage was divided into six grades,which reflected the distribution characteristics and regional difference of drought risk for winter wheat in Anhui Province. Drought risk was the maximum in the main producing areas of winter wheat in the north of Huaihe River,followed by the area along Huaihe River and the area between Yangtze River and Huaihe River,while the drought risk of winter wheat was very low in the south of Anhui Province. The drought risk of winter wheat was markedly affected by the sensitivity to drought,vulnerability and the drought resistance of winter wheat. [Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for rational distribution of winter wheat and establishment of strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation.
基金Supported by China National Tobacco Corporation(Yunnan Tobacco Science and Technology Program No.[2014]302,program contract number:2014YN22)
文摘The risk regionalization of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting in Qujing City was studied to provide reference for drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages in flue-cured tobacco planting,disaster reduction,and disaster relief services.According to the production practice of flue-cured tobacco and local climate analysis,the risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-breeding environment,vulnerability of carriers,and disaster prevention and reduction capability were analyzed and evaluated quantitatively.Secondly,starting from the formation mechanism of drought,a risk assessment model of the meteorological disaster was established by GIS technology.Finally,the risk assessment and regionalization of drought in the critical periods for drought-stricken flue-cured tobacco (transplanting period,root extending stage and vigorous growth period) in Qujing City were carried out.The results showed that in Qujing City,the risk areas of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting were divided into five grades in the transplanting period and six grades in the root extending stage and vigorous growth period.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41301593 and 41471428)the Arid Meteorology Science Foundation, CMA (IAM201407)the State Key Development Program for BasicResearch of China (Grant No. 2012CB955402)
文摘The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.
基金National Key Technologies R&D Programs of China(No. 2011BAD32B01,No. 2012BAH29B02)Ph. D. Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No. 20100101110035)
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation (1960-2009) of China and associated regional socio-economic data, the spatial and temporal pattern of drought in China was assessed by applying a conceptual framework of disaster system theory, which used the hazard and vulnerability as two variables to define the risk of drought. Sichuan province suffered from the severe risk of drought, while Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou provinces, and Chongqing city could be classified as the moderate drought risk area of China. Additionally, Tibet plateau in the Northwest of China had the lowest risk of drought. The integrated data from this result provided the valuable information to cope with the drought in respect of optimization utilization of land resources at the regional scale.
基金Supported by the Key Project of Guangxi Meteorological Bureau " Agricultural Weather Service Platform of Guangxi at the City or County Level" (201101)
文摘Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of drought in Guilin. Afterwards, by using the method of disaster risk assessment, the disaster-causing factors, breed disasters environment and fragility of hazard-bearing body of Guilin drought have been analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation on drought disaster has been made. The results show that above medium drought in Guilin mainly appeared in au- tumn, followed by winter, while Guilin only suffered from slight drought in spring; the principal period of drought occurrence in Guilin was six years, while its secondary period was two years; on the whole, drought risk was high in the southeast and low in the northwest.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51190094,50909073,and 51179130)the Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2010CDB08401)
文摘The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.
