A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adh...A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.展开更多
Partial least squares(PLS)model is the most typical data-driven method for quality-related industrial tasks like soft sensor.However,only linear relations are captured between the input and output data in the PLS.It i...Partial least squares(PLS)model is the most typical data-driven method for quality-related industrial tasks like soft sensor.However,only linear relations are captured between the input and output data in the PLS.It is difficult to obtain the remaining nonlinear information in the residual subspaces,which may deteriorate the prediction performance in complex industrial processes.To fully utilize data information in PLS residual subspaces,a deep residual PLS(DRPLS)framework is proposed for quality prediction in this paper.Inspired by deep learning,DRPLS is designed by stacking a number of PLSs successively,in which the input residuals of the previous PLS are used as the layer connection.To enhance representation,nonlinear function is applied to the input residuals before using them for stacking highlevel PLS.For each PLS,the output parts are just the output residuals from its previous PLS.Finally,the output prediction is obtained by adding the results of each PLS.The effectiveness of the proposed DRPLS is validated on an industrial hydrocracking process.展开更多
For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is ...For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.展开更多
Landslides are common natural hazards occurring in most parts of the world and have considerable adverse economic effects. Residual shear strength of clay is one of the most important factors in the determination of s...Landslides are common natural hazards occurring in most parts of the world and have considerable adverse economic effects. Residual shear strength of clay is one of the most important factors in the determination of stability of slopes or landslides. This effect is more pronounced in sensitive clays which show large changes in shear strength from peak to residual states. This study analyses the prediction of the residual strength of clay based on a new prediction model, functional networks（FN） using data available in the literature. The performance of FN was compared with support vector machine（SVM） and artificial neural network（ANN） based on statistical parameters like correlation coefficient（R）, Nash–Sutcliff coefficient of efficiency（E）, absolute average error（AAE）, maximum average error（MAE） and root mean square error（RMSE）. Based on R and E parameters, FN is found to be a better prediction tool than ANN for the given data. However, the R and E values for FN are less than SVM. A prediction equation is presented that can be used by practicing geotechnical engineers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to ascertain the importance of various inputs in the prediction of the output.展开更多
Paris law can reflect the failure mechanism of materials and is usually used to be a method to predict fatigue life or residual fatigue life.But the variable which can represent the health of machine is hardly measure...Paris law can reflect the failure mechanism of materials and is usually used to be a method to predict fatigue life or residual fatigue life.But the variable which can represent the health of machine is hardly measured on line.To a degree,the difficulty of on-line application restricts the scope of application of Paris law.The relationship between characteristic values of vibration signals and the variable in the Paris equation which can describe the health of machine is investigated by taking ball bearings as investigative objects.Based on 6205 deep groove ball bearings as a living example,historical lives and vibration signals are analyzed.The feasibility of describing that variable in the Paris equation by the characteristic value of vibration signals is inspected.After that vibration signals decomposed by empirical mode decomposition（EMD）,root mean square（RMS） of intrinsic mode function（IMF） involving fault characteristic frequency has a consistent trend with the diameter of flaws.Based on the trend,two improved Paris models are proposed and the scope of application of them is inspected.These two Paris Models are validated by fatigue residual life data from tests of rolling element bearings and vibration signals monitored in the process of operation of rolling element bearings.It shows that the first improved Paris Model is simple and plain and it can be easily applied in actual conditions.The trend of the fatigue residual life predicted by the second improved Paris model is close to the actual conditions and the result of the prediction is slightly greater than the truth.In conclusion,after the appearance of detectable faults,these improved models based on RMS can predict residual fatigue life on line and a new approach to predict residual fatigue life of ball bearings on line without disturbing the machine running is provided.展开更多
High frequency(HF) communication is widely spread due to some merits like easy deployment and wide communication coverage. Spectrum prediction is a promising technique to facilitate the working frequency selection and...High frequency(HF) communication is widely spread due to some merits like easy deployment and wide communication coverage. Spectrum prediction is a promising technique to facilitate the working frequency selection and enhance the function of automatic link establishment. Most of the existing spectrum prediction algorithms focus on predicting spectrum values in a slot-by-slot manner and therefore are lack of timeliness. Deep learning based spectrum prediction is developed in this paper by simultaneously predicting multi-slot ahead states of multiple spectrum points within a period of time. Specifically, we first employ supervised learning and construct samples depending on longterm and short-term HF spectrum data. Then, advanced residual units are introduced to build multiple residual network modules to respectively capture characteristics in these data with diverse time scales. Further, convolution neural network fuses the outputs of residual network modules above for temporal-spectral prediction, which is combined with residual network modules to construct the deep temporal-spectral residual network. Experiments have demonstrated that the approach proposed in this paper has a significant advantage over the benchmark schemes.展开更多
A numerical simulation model for predicting residual stresses which arise during the solidification process of pressed glass bulb panel was developed. The solidification of a molten layer of glass between cooled paral...A numerical simulation model for predicting residual stresses which arise during the solidification process of pressed glass bulb panel was developed. The solidification of a molten layer of glass between cooled parallel plates was used to model the mechanics of the buildup of residual stresses in the forming process. A thermorheologically simple thermoviscoelastic model was assumed for the material. The finite element method employed was based on the theory of shells as an assembly of flat elements. This approach calculates residual stresses layer by layer like a truly three-dimensional calculation, which is well suited for thin pressed products of complex shape. An experimental comparison was employed to verify the proposed models and methods.展开更多
Residual stress distributions in 7075 aluminum alloy thick plates with different thicknesses and different quenching speeds were measured. A shape function of stress distribution was proposed based on the internal str...Residual stress distributions in 7075 aluminum alloy thick plates with different thicknesses and different quenching speeds were measured. A shape function of stress distribution was proposed based on the internal stress distribution characteristics of aluminum alloy. Using nonlinear regression technology,the function between stress value of key points on internal stress curve and surface stress of the plate was obtained. Based on the measured surface stress,stress value of key points and stress distribution shape,the internal stress distribution can be reconstructed. The experiments show that the model is of good engineering practicality.展开更多
Bus arrival time prediction contributes to the quality improvement of public transport services.Passengers can arrange departure time effectively if they know the accurate bus arrival time in advance.We proposed a mac...Bus arrival time prediction contributes to the quality improvement of public transport services.Passengers can arrange departure time effectively if they know the accurate bus arrival time in advance.We proposed a machine⁃learning approach,RTSI⁃ResNet,to forecast the bus arrival time at target stations.The residual neural network framework was employed to model the bus route temporal⁃spatial information.It was found that the bus travel time on a segment between two stations not only had correlation with the preceding buses,but also had common change trends with nearby downstream/upstream segments.Two features about bus travel time and headway were extracted from bus route including target section in both forward and reverse directions to constitute the route temporal⁃spatial information,which reflects the road traffic conditions comprehensively.Experiments on the bus trajectory data of route No.10 in Shenzhen public transport system demonstrated that the proposed RTSI⁃ResNet outperformed other well⁃known methods(e.g.,RNN/LSTM,SVM).Specifically,the advantage was more significant when the distance between bus and the target station was farther.展开更多
The multi-spring shear mechanism plastic model in this paper is defined in strain space to simulate pore pressure generation and development in sands under cyclic loading and undrained conditions, and the rotation of ...The multi-spring shear mechanism plastic model in this paper is defined in strain space to simulate pore pressure generation and development in sands under cyclic loading and undrained conditions, and the rotation of principal stresses can also be simulated by the model with cyclic behavior of anisotropic consolidated sands. Seismic residual deformations of typical caisson quay walls under different engineering situations are analyzed in detail by the plastic model, and then an index of liquefaction extent is applied to describe the regularity of seismic residual deformation of caisson quay wall top under different engineering situations. Some correlated prediction formulas are derived from the results of regression analysis between seismic residual deformation of quay wall top and extent of liquefaction in the relative safety backfill sand site. Finally, the rationality and the reliability of the prediction methods are validated by test results of a 120 g-centrifuge shaking table, and the comparisons show that some reliable seismic residual deformation of caisson quay can be predicted by appropriate prediction formulas and appropriate index of liquefaction extent.展开更多
Recently,deep learning(DL)has been widely used in the field of remaining useful life(RUL)prediction.Among various DL technologies,recurrent neural network(RNN)and its variant,e.g.,long short-term memory(LSTM)network,h...Recently,deep learning(DL)has been widely used in the field of remaining useful life(RUL)prediction.Among various DL technologies,recurrent neural network(RNN)and its variant,e.g.,long short-term memory(LSTM)network,have gained extensive attention for their ability to capture temporal dependence.Although existing RNN-based methods have demonstrated their RUL prediction effectiveness,they still suffer from the following two limitations:1)it is difficult for the RNN to directly extract degradation features from original monitoring data and 2)most RNN-based prognostics methods are unable to quantify RUL uncertainty.To address the aforementioned limitations,this paper proposes a new prognostics method named residual convolution LSTM(RC-LSTM)network.In the RC-LSTM,a new ResNet-based convolution LSTM(Res-ConvLSTM)layer is stacked with a convolution LSTM(ConvLSTM)layer to extract degradation representations from monitoring data.Then,under the assumption that the RUL follows a normal distribution,an appropriate output layer is constructed to quantify the uncertainty of prediction results.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the RC-LSTM are verified using monitoring data from accelerated bearing degradation tests.展开更多
Rockburst is a phenomenon in which free surfaces are formed during excavation,which subsequently causes the sudden release of energy in the construction of mines and tunnels.Light rockburst only peels off rock slices ...Rockburst is a phenomenon in which free surfaces are formed during excavation,which subsequently causes the sudden release of energy in the construction of mines and tunnels.Light rockburst only peels off rock slices without ejection,while severe rockburst causes casualties and property loss.The frequency and degree of rockburst damage increases with the excavation depth.Moreover,rockburst is the leading engineering geological hazard in the excavation process,and thus the prediction of its intensity grade is of great significance to the development of geotechnical engineering.Therefore,the prediction of rockburst intensity grade is one problem that needs to be solved urgently.By comprehensively considering the occurrence mechanism of rockburst,this paper selects the stress index(σθ/σc),brittleness index(σ_(c)/σ_(t)),and rock elastic energy index(Wet)as the rockburst evaluation indexes through the Spearman coefficient method.This overcomes the low accuracy problem of a single evaluation index prediction method.Following this,the BGD-MSR-DNN rockburst intensity grade prediction model based on batch gradient descent and a multi-scale residual deep neural network is proposed.The batch gradient descent(BGD)module is used to replace the gradient descent algorithm,which effectively improves the efficiency of the network and reduces the model training time.Moreover,the multi-scale residual(MSR)module solves the problem of network degradation when there are too many hidden layers of the deep neural network(DNN),thus improving the model prediction accuracy.The experimental results reveal the BGDMSR-DNN model accuracy to reach 97.1%,outperforming other comparable models.Finally,actual projects such as Qinling Tunnel and Daxiangling Tunnel,reached an accuracy of 100%.The model can be applied in mines and tunnel engineering to realize the accurate and rapid prediction of rockburst intensity grade.展开更多
The importance of software residual defects and some prediction residual defects models are introduced. The problem that is not easy adapted to a general model is discussed. The model of prediction residual defects ba...The importance of software residual defects and some prediction residual defects models are introduced. The problem that is not easy adapted to a general model is discussed. The model of prediction residual defects based on BBNs is proposed and the detailed processes of the approach are given.展开更多
This study was aimed to do the prediction of pesticide residues based on fuzzy system. Taking chlorpyrifos as an example, the Mathematic Fuzzy System was established by using the MRL values （maximum residue limits of...This study was aimed to do the prediction of pesticide residues based on fuzzy system. Taking chlorpyrifos as an example, the Mathematic Fuzzy System was established by using the MRL values （maximum residue limits of all kinds of pesticides in food） of the Matlab Fuzzy Toolbox to analyze and predict the degra- dation degree of pesticide residues of the same crop at different time periods of bagging treatment, with the aim to provide some theoretical guidances for solving practical problems in real life.展开更多
The Bozhong Sag is the largest petroliferous sag in the Bohai Bay Basin,and the source rocks of Paleogene Dongying and Shahejie Formations were buried deeply.Most of the drillings were located at the structural high,a...The Bozhong Sag is the largest petroliferous sag in the Bohai Bay Basin,and the source rocks of Paleogene Dongying and Shahejie Formations were buried deeply.Most of the drillings were located at the structural high,and there were few wells that met good quality source rocks,so it is difficult to evaluate the source rocks in the study area precisely by geochemical analysis only.Based on the Rock-Eval pyrolysis,total organic carbon(TOC)testing,the organic matter(OM)abundance of Paleogene source rocks in the southwestern Bozhong Sag were evaluated,including the lower of second member of Dongying Formation(E_(3)d2L),the third member of Dongying Formation(E_(3)d_(3)),the first and second members of Shahejie Formation(E_(2)s_(1+2)),the third member of Shahejie Formation(E_(2)s_(3)).The results indicate that the E_(2)s_(1+2)and E_(2)s_(3)have better hydrocarbon generative potentials with the highest OM abundance,the E_(3)d_(3)are of the second good quality,and the E_(3)d2L have poor to fair hydrocarbon generative potential.Furthermore,the well logs were applied to predict TOC and residual hydrocarbon generation potential(S_(2))based on the sedimentary facies classification,usingΔlogR,generalizedΔlogR,logging multiple linear regression and BP neural network methods.The various methods were compared,and the BP neural network method have relatively better prediction accuracy.Based on the pre-stack simultaneous inversion(P-wave impedance,P-wave velocity and density inversion results)and the post-stack seismic attributes,the three-dimensional(3D)seismic prediction of TOC and S_(2)was carried out.The results show that the seismic near well prediction results of TOC and S_(2)based on seismic multi-attributes analysis correspond well with the results of well logging methods,and the plane prediction results are identical with the sedimentary facies map in the study area.The TOC and S_(2)values of E_(2)s_(1+2)and E_(2)s_(3)are higher than those in E_(3)d_(3)and E_(3)d_(2)L,basically consistent with the geochemical analysis results.This method makes up the deficiency of geochemical methods,establishing the connection between geophysical information and geochemical data,and it is helpful to the 3D quantitative prediction and the evaluation of high-quality source rocks in the areas where the drillings are limited.展开更多
The purpose of software defect prediction is to identify defect-prone code modules to assist software quality assurance teams with the appropriate allocation of resources and labor.In previous software defect predicti...The purpose of software defect prediction is to identify defect-prone code modules to assist software quality assurance teams with the appropriate allocation of resources and labor.In previous software defect prediction studies,transfer learning was effective in solving the problem of inconsistent project data distribution.However,target projects often lack sufficient data,which affects the performance of the transfer learning model.In addition,the presence of uncorrelated features between projects can decrease the prediction accuracy of the transfer learning model.To address these problems,this article propose a software defect prediction method based on stable learning(SDP-SL)that combines code visualization techniques and residual networks.This method first transforms code files into code images using code visualization techniques and then constructs a defect prediction model based on these code images.During the model training process,target project data are not required as prior knowledge.Following the principles of stable learning,this paper dynamically adjusted the weights of source project samples to eliminate dependencies between features,thereby capturing the“invariance mechanism”within the data.This approach explores the genuine relationship between code defect features and labels,thereby enhancing defect prediction performance.To evaluate the performance of SDP-SL,this article conducted comparative experiments on 10 open-source projects in the PROMISE dataset.The experimental results demonstrated that in terms of the F-measure,the proposed SDP-SL method outperformed other within-project defect prediction methods by 2.11%-44.03%.In cross-project defect prediction,the SDP-SL method provided an improvement of 5.89%-25.46% in prediction performance compared to other cross-project defect prediction methods.Therefore,SDP-SL can effectively enhance within-and cross-project defect predictions.展开更多
The residual subsidence caused by underground mining in mountain area has a long subsidence duration time and great potential harm,which seriously threatens the safety of people's production and life in the mining...The residual subsidence caused by underground mining in mountain area has a long subsidence duration time and great potential harm,which seriously threatens the safety of people's production and life in the mining area.Therefore,it is necessary to use appropriate monitoring methods and mathematical models to effectively monitor and predict the residual subsidence caused by underground mining.Compared with traditional level survey and InSAR(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)technology,GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System)online monitoring technology has the advantages of long-term monitoring,high precision and more flexible monitoring methods.The empirical equation method of residual subsidence in mining subsidence is effectively combined with the rock creep equation,which can not only describe the residual subsidence process from the mechanism,but also predict the residual subsidence.Therefore,based on GNSS online monitoring technology,combined with the mining subsidence model of mountain area and adding the correlation coefficient of the compaction degree of caving broken rock and the Kelvin model of rock mechanics,this paper constructs the residual subsidence time series model of arbitrary point on the ground in mountain area.Through the example,the predicted results of the model in the inversion parameter phase and the dynamic prediction phase are compared with the measured data sequence.The results show that the model can carry out effective numerical calculation according to the GNSS monitoring data of any point on the ground,and the model prediction effect is good,which provides a new method for the prediction of residual subsidence in mountain mining.展开更多
Two systems of additive equations were developed to predict aboveground stand level biomass in log products and harvest residue from routinely measured or predicted stand variables for Pinus radiata plantations in New...Two systems of additive equations were developed to predict aboveground stand level biomass in log products and harvest residue from routinely measured or predicted stand variables for Pinus radiata plantations in New South Wales,Australia.These plantations were managed under three thinning regimes or stand types before clear-felling at rotation age by cut-to-length harvesters to produce sawlogs and pulpwood.The residue material following a clear-fell operation mainly consisted of stumps,branches and treetops,short off-cut and waste sections due to stem deformity,defects,damage and breakage.One system of equations did not include dummy variables for stand types in the model specification and was intended for more general use in plantations where stand density management regimes were not the same as the stand types in our study.The other system that incorporated dummy variables was for stand type-specific applications.Both systems of equations were estimated using 61 plot-based estimates of biomass in commercial logs and residue components that were derived from systems of equations developed in situ for predicting the product and residue biomass of individual trees.To cater for all practical applications,two sets of parameters were estimated for each system of equations for predicting component and total aboveground stand biomass in fresh and dry weight respectively.The two sets of parameters for the system of equations without dummy variables were jointly estimated to improve statistical efficiency in parameter estimation.The predictive performances of the two systems of equations were benchmarked through a leave-one-plot-out cross validation procedure.They were generally superior to the performance of an alternative two-stage approach that combined an additive system for major components with an allocative system for sub-components.As using forest harvest residue biomass for bioenergy has increasingly become an integrated part of forestry,reliable estimates of product and residue biomass will assist harvest and management planning for clear-fell operations that integrate cut-to-length log production with residue harvesting.展开更多
Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurr...Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurrent units(GRUs)and Markov residual correction to pass a fixed cross-section.To analyze the traffic flow of ships,the statistical method of ship traffic flow based on the automatic identification system(AIS)is introduced.And a model is put forward for predicting the ship flow.According to the basic principle of cyclic neural networks,the law of ship traffic flow in the channel is explored in the time series.Experiments have been performed using a large number of AIS data in the waters near Xiazhimen in Zhoushan,Ningbo,and the results show that the accuracy of the GRU-Markov algorithm is higher than that of other algorithms,proving the practicability and effectiveness of this method in ship flow prediction.展开更多
基金the High-Performance Computing Platform of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(BUCT)for supporting this papersupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JD2319)+2 种基金the CNOOC Technical Cooperation Project(ZX2022ZCTYF7612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775029,52004014)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(XK2020-04)。
文摘A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62173346,61988101,92267205,62103360,62303494)。
文摘Partial least squares(PLS)model is the most typical data-driven method for quality-related industrial tasks like soft sensor.However,only linear relations are captured between the input and output data in the PLS.It is difficult to obtain the remaining nonlinear information in the residual subspaces,which may deteriorate the prediction performance in complex industrial processes.To fully utilize data information in PLS residual subspaces,a deep residual PLS(DRPLS)framework is proposed for quality prediction in this paper.Inspired by deep learning,DRPLS is designed by stacking a number of PLSs successively,in which the input residuals of the previous PLS are used as the layer connection.To enhance representation,nonlinear function is applied to the input residuals before using them for stacking highlevel PLS.For each PLS,the output parts are just the output residuals from its previous PLS.Finally,the output prediction is obtained by adding the results of each PLS.The effectiveness of the proposed DRPLS is validated on an industrial hydrocracking process.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.
文摘Landslides are common natural hazards occurring in most parts of the world and have considerable adverse economic effects. Residual shear strength of clay is one of the most important factors in the determination of stability of slopes or landslides. This effect is more pronounced in sensitive clays which show large changes in shear strength from peak to residual states. This study analyses the prediction of the residual strength of clay based on a new prediction model, functional networks（FN） using data available in the literature. The performance of FN was compared with support vector machine（SVM） and artificial neural network（ANN） based on statistical parameters like correlation coefficient（R）, Nash–Sutcliff coefficient of efficiency（E）, absolute average error（AAE）, maximum average error（MAE） and root mean square error（RMSE）. Based on R and E parameters, FN is found to be a better prediction tool than ANN for the given data. However, the R and E values for FN are less than SVM. A prediction equation is presented that can be used by practicing geotechnical engineers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to ascertain the importance of various inputs in the prediction of the output.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50705096)National Science and Technology Major Project of China(Grant No. 2009zx04014-014)
文摘Paris law can reflect the failure mechanism of materials and is usually used to be a method to predict fatigue life or residual fatigue life.But the variable which can represent the health of machine is hardly measured on line.To a degree,the difficulty of on-line application restricts the scope of application of Paris law.The relationship between characteristic values of vibration signals and the variable in the Paris equation which can describe the health of machine is investigated by taking ball bearings as investigative objects.Based on 6205 deep groove ball bearings as a living example,historical lives and vibration signals are analyzed.The feasibility of describing that variable in the Paris equation by the characteristic value of vibration signals is inspected.After that vibration signals decomposed by empirical mode decomposition（EMD）,root mean square（RMS） of intrinsic mode function（IMF） involving fault characteristic frequency has a consistent trend with the diameter of flaws.Based on the trend,two improved Paris models are proposed and the scope of application of them is inspected.These two Paris Models are validated by fatigue residual life data from tests of rolling element bearings and vibration signals monitored in the process of operation of rolling element bearings.It shows that the first improved Paris Model is simple and plain and it can be easily applied in actual conditions.The trend of the fatigue residual life predicted by the second improved Paris model is close to the actual conditions and the result of the prediction is slightly greater than the truth.In conclusion,after the appearance of detectable faults,these improved models based on RMS can predict residual fatigue life on line and a new approach to predict residual fatigue life of ball bearings on line without disturbing the machine running is provided.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 61501510 and No. 61631020)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20150717)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (Grant No. 2016M590398 and No.2018T110426)Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds (Grant No. 1501009A)Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20160034)
文摘High frequency(HF) communication is widely spread due to some merits like easy deployment and wide communication coverage. Spectrum prediction is a promising technique to facilitate the working frequency selection and enhance the function of automatic link establishment. Most of the existing spectrum prediction algorithms focus on predicting spectrum values in a slot-by-slot manner and therefore are lack of timeliness. Deep learning based spectrum prediction is developed in this paper by simultaneously predicting multi-slot ahead states of multiple spectrum points within a period of time. Specifically, we first employ supervised learning and construct samples depending on longterm and short-term HF spectrum data. Then, advanced residual units are introduced to build multiple residual network modules to respectively capture characteristics in these data with diverse time scales. Further, convolution neural network fuses the outputs of residual network modules above for temporal-spectral prediction, which is combined with residual network modules to construct the deep temporal-spectral residual network. Experiments have demonstrated that the approach proposed in this paper has a significant advantage over the benchmark schemes.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50205011)
文摘A numerical simulation model for predicting residual stresses which arise during the solidification process of pressed glass bulb panel was developed. The solidification of a molten layer of glass between cooled parallel plates was used to model the mechanics of the buildup of residual stresses in the forming process. A thermorheologically simple thermoviscoelastic model was assumed for the material. The finite element method employed was based on the theory of shells as an assembly of flat elements. This approach calculates residual stresses layer by layer like a truly three-dimensional calculation, which is well suited for thin pressed products of complex shape. An experimental comparison was employed to verify the proposed models and methods.
基金Projects(2005CB623708, 2010CB731703) supported by the National Basic Research Program of China
文摘Residual stress distributions in 7075 aluminum alloy thick plates with different thicknesses and different quenching speeds were measured. A shape function of stress distribution was proposed based on the internal stress distribution characteristics of aluminum alloy. Using nonlinear regression technology,the function between stress value of key points on internal stress curve and surface stress of the plate was obtained. Based on the measured surface stress,stress value of key points and stress distribution shape,the internal stress distribution can be reconstructed. The experiments show that the model is of good engineering practicality.
基金Sponsored by the Transportation Science and Technology Planning Project of Henan Province,China(Grant No.2019G-2-2).
文摘Bus arrival time prediction contributes to the quality improvement of public transport services.Passengers can arrange departure time effectively if they know the accurate bus arrival time in advance.We proposed a machine⁃learning approach,RTSI⁃ResNet,to forecast the bus arrival time at target stations.The residual neural network framework was employed to model the bus route temporal⁃spatial information.It was found that the bus travel time on a segment between two stations not only had correlation with the preceding buses,but also had common change trends with nearby downstream/upstream segments.Two features about bus travel time and headway were extracted from bus route including target section in both forward and reverse directions to constitute the route temporal⁃spatial information,which reflects the road traffic conditions comprehensively.Experiments on the bus trajectory data of route No.10 in Shenzhen public transport system demonstrated that the proposed RTSI⁃ResNet outperformed other well⁃known methods(e.g.,RNN/LSTM,SVM).Specifically,the advantage was more significant when the distance between bus and the target station was farther.
基金supported by the Research Foundation of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology for Introducing Talents(Grant No. 35280901)
文摘The multi-spring shear mechanism plastic model in this paper is defined in strain space to simulate pore pressure generation and development in sands under cyclic loading and undrained conditions, and the rotation of principal stresses can also be simulated by the model with cyclic behavior of anisotropic consolidated sands. Seismic residual deformations of typical caisson quay walls under different engineering situations are analyzed in detail by the plastic model, and then an index of liquefaction extent is applied to describe the regularity of seismic residual deformation of caisson quay wall top under different engineering situations. Some correlated prediction formulas are derived from the results of regression analysis between seismic residual deformation of quay wall top and extent of liquefaction in the relative safety backfill sand site. Finally, the rationality and the reliability of the prediction methods are validated by test results of a 120 g-centrifuge shaking table, and the comparisons show that some reliable seismic residual deformation of caisson quay can be predicted by appropriate prediction formulas and appropriate index of liquefaction extent.
基金This research was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52005387,52025056)Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2020M673380)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
文摘Recently,deep learning(DL)has been widely used in the field of remaining useful life(RUL)prediction.Among various DL technologies,recurrent neural network(RNN)and its variant,e.g.,long short-term memory(LSTM)network,have gained extensive attention for their ability to capture temporal dependence.Although existing RNN-based methods have demonstrated their RUL prediction effectiveness,they still suffer from the following two limitations:1)it is difficult for the RNN to directly extract degradation features from original monitoring data and 2)most RNN-based prognostics methods are unable to quantify RUL uncertainty.To address the aforementioned limitations,this paper proposes a new prognostics method named residual convolution LSTM(RC-LSTM)network.In the RC-LSTM,a new ResNet-based convolution LSTM(Res-ConvLSTM)layer is stacked with a convolution LSTM(ConvLSTM)layer to extract degradation representations from monitoring data.Then,under the assumption that the RUL follows a normal distribution,an appropriate output layer is constructed to quantify the uncertainty of prediction results.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the RC-LSTM are verified using monitoring data from accelerated bearing degradation tests.
基金funded by State Key Laboratory for GeoMechanics and Deep Underground Engineering&Institute for Deep Underground Science and Engineering,Grant Number XD2021021BUCEA Post Graduate Innovation Project under Grant,Grant Number PG2023092.
文摘Rockburst is a phenomenon in which free surfaces are formed during excavation,which subsequently causes the sudden release of energy in the construction of mines and tunnels.Light rockburst only peels off rock slices without ejection,while severe rockburst causes casualties and property loss.The frequency and degree of rockburst damage increases with the excavation depth.Moreover,rockburst is the leading engineering geological hazard in the excavation process,and thus the prediction of its intensity grade is of great significance to the development of geotechnical engineering.Therefore,the prediction of rockburst intensity grade is one problem that needs to be solved urgently.By comprehensively considering the occurrence mechanism of rockburst,this paper selects the stress index(σθ/σc),brittleness index(σ_(c)/σ_(t)),and rock elastic energy index(Wet)as the rockburst evaluation indexes through the Spearman coefficient method.This overcomes the low accuracy problem of a single evaluation index prediction method.Following this,the BGD-MSR-DNN rockburst intensity grade prediction model based on batch gradient descent and a multi-scale residual deep neural network is proposed.The batch gradient descent(BGD)module is used to replace the gradient descent algorithm,which effectively improves the efficiency of the network and reduces the model training time.Moreover,the multi-scale residual(MSR)module solves the problem of network degradation when there are too many hidden layers of the deep neural network(DNN),thus improving the model prediction accuracy.The experimental results reveal the BGDMSR-DNN model accuracy to reach 97.1%,outperforming other comparable models.Finally,actual projects such as Qinling Tunnel and Daxiangling Tunnel,reached an accuracy of 100%.The model can be applied in mines and tunnel engineering to realize the accurate and rapid prediction of rockburst intensity grade.
基金The sustentation fund come fron China Academy of Engineering Physics 2003-421050504-12-02
文摘The importance of software residual defects and some prediction residual defects models are introduced. The problem that is not easy adapted to a general model is discussed. The model of prediction residual defects based on BBNs is proposed and the detailed processes of the approach are given.
基金The Youth Foundation of the Department of Education of Hebei Province in 2016(QN2016243)
文摘This study was aimed to do the prediction of pesticide residues based on fuzzy system. Taking chlorpyrifos as an example, the Mathematic Fuzzy System was established by using the MRL values （maximum residue limits of all kinds of pesticides in food） of the Matlab Fuzzy Toolbox to analyze and predict the degra- dation degree of pesticide residues of the same crop at different time periods of bagging treatment, with the aim to provide some theoretical guidances for solving practical problems in real life.
文摘The Bozhong Sag is the largest petroliferous sag in the Bohai Bay Basin,and the source rocks of Paleogene Dongying and Shahejie Formations were buried deeply.Most of the drillings were located at the structural high,and there were few wells that met good quality source rocks,so it is difficult to evaluate the source rocks in the study area precisely by geochemical analysis only.Based on the Rock-Eval pyrolysis,total organic carbon(TOC)testing,the organic matter(OM)abundance of Paleogene source rocks in the southwestern Bozhong Sag were evaluated,including the lower of second member of Dongying Formation(E_(3)d2L),the third member of Dongying Formation(E_(3)d_(3)),the first and second members of Shahejie Formation(E_(2)s_(1+2)),the third member of Shahejie Formation(E_(2)s_(3)).The results indicate that the E_(2)s_(1+2)and E_(2)s_(3)have better hydrocarbon generative potentials with the highest OM abundance,the E_(3)d_(3)are of the second good quality,and the E_(3)d2L have poor to fair hydrocarbon generative potential.Furthermore,the well logs were applied to predict TOC and residual hydrocarbon generation potential(S_(2))based on the sedimentary facies classification,usingΔlogR,generalizedΔlogR,logging multiple linear regression and BP neural network methods.The various methods were compared,and the BP neural network method have relatively better prediction accuracy.Based on the pre-stack simultaneous inversion(P-wave impedance,P-wave velocity and density inversion results)and the post-stack seismic attributes,the three-dimensional(3D)seismic prediction of TOC and S_(2)was carried out.The results show that the seismic near well prediction results of TOC and S_(2)based on seismic multi-attributes analysis correspond well with the results of well logging methods,and the plane prediction results are identical with the sedimentary facies map in the study area.The TOC and S_(2)values of E_(2)s_(1+2)and E_(2)s_(3)are higher than those in E_(3)d_(3)and E_(3)d_(2)L,basically consistent with the geochemical analysis results.This method makes up the deficiency of geochemical methods,establishing the connection between geophysical information and geochemical data,and it is helpful to the 3D quantitative prediction and the evaluation of high-quality source rocks in the areas where the drillings are limited.
基金supported by the NationalNatural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61867004)the Youth Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41801288).
文摘The purpose of software defect prediction is to identify defect-prone code modules to assist software quality assurance teams with the appropriate allocation of resources and labor.In previous software defect prediction studies,transfer learning was effective in solving the problem of inconsistent project data distribution.However,target projects often lack sufficient data,which affects the performance of the transfer learning model.In addition,the presence of uncorrelated features between projects can decrease the prediction accuracy of the transfer learning model.To address these problems,this article propose a software defect prediction method based on stable learning(SDP-SL)that combines code visualization techniques and residual networks.This method first transforms code files into code images using code visualization techniques and then constructs a defect prediction model based on these code images.During the model training process,target project data are not required as prior knowledge.Following the principles of stable learning,this paper dynamically adjusted the weights of source project samples to eliminate dependencies between features,thereby capturing the“invariance mechanism”within the data.This approach explores the genuine relationship between code defect features and labels,thereby enhancing defect prediction performance.To evaluate the performance of SDP-SL,this article conducted comparative experiments on 10 open-source projects in the PROMISE dataset.The experimental results demonstrated that in terms of the F-measure,the proposed SDP-SL method outperformed other within-project defect prediction methods by 2.11%-44.03%.In cross-project defect prediction,the SDP-SL method provided an improvement of 5.89%-25.46% in prediction performance compared to other cross-project defect prediction methods.Therefore,SDP-SL can effectively enhance within-and cross-project defect predictions.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province,China(202203021211153)National Natural Science Foundation of China(51704205).
文摘The residual subsidence caused by underground mining in mountain area has a long subsidence duration time and great potential harm,which seriously threatens the safety of people's production and life in the mining area.Therefore,it is necessary to use appropriate monitoring methods and mathematical models to effectively monitor and predict the residual subsidence caused by underground mining.Compared with traditional level survey and InSAR(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)technology,GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System)online monitoring technology has the advantages of long-term monitoring,high precision and more flexible monitoring methods.The empirical equation method of residual subsidence in mining subsidence is effectively combined with the rock creep equation,which can not only describe the residual subsidence process from the mechanism,but also predict the residual subsidence.Therefore,based on GNSS online monitoring technology,combined with the mining subsidence model of mountain area and adding the correlation coefficient of the compaction degree of caving broken rock and the Kelvin model of rock mechanics,this paper constructs the residual subsidence time series model of arbitrary point on the ground in mountain area.Through the example,the predicted results of the model in the inversion parameter phase and the dynamic prediction phase are compared with the measured data sequence.The results show that the model can carry out effective numerical calculation according to the GNSS monitoring data of any point on the ground,and the model prediction effect is good,which provides a new method for the prediction of residual subsidence in mountain mining.
基金This study was supported by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture,Fisheries and Forestry,the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation,and Forests NSW.
文摘Two systems of additive equations were developed to predict aboveground stand level biomass in log products and harvest residue from routinely measured or predicted stand variables for Pinus radiata plantations in New South Wales,Australia.These plantations were managed under three thinning regimes or stand types before clear-felling at rotation age by cut-to-length harvesters to produce sawlogs and pulpwood.The residue material following a clear-fell operation mainly consisted of stumps,branches and treetops,short off-cut and waste sections due to stem deformity,defects,damage and breakage.One system of equations did not include dummy variables for stand types in the model specification and was intended for more general use in plantations where stand density management regimes were not the same as the stand types in our study.The other system that incorporated dummy variables was for stand type-specific applications.Both systems of equations were estimated using 61 plot-based estimates of biomass in commercial logs and residue components that were derived from systems of equations developed in situ for predicting the product and residue biomass of individual trees.To cater for all practical applications,two sets of parameters were estimated for each system of equations for predicting component and total aboveground stand biomass in fresh and dry weight respectively.The two sets of parameters for the system of equations without dummy variables were jointly estimated to improve statistical efficiency in parameter estimation.The predictive performances of the two systems of equations were benchmarked through a leave-one-plot-out cross validation procedure.They were generally superior to the performance of an alternative two-stage approach that combined an additive system for major components with an allocative system for sub-components.As using forest harvest residue biomass for bioenergy has increasingly become an integrated part of forestry,reliable estimates of product and residue biomass will assist harvest and management planning for clear-fell operations that integrate cut-to-length log production with residue harvesting.
文摘Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurrent units(GRUs)and Markov residual correction to pass a fixed cross-section.To analyze the traffic flow of ships,the statistical method of ship traffic flow based on the automatic identification system(AIS)is introduced.And a model is put forward for predicting the ship flow.According to the basic principle of cyclic neural networks,the law of ship traffic flow in the channel is explored in the time series.Experiments have been performed using a large number of AIS data in the waters near Xiazhimen in Zhoushan,Ningbo,and the results show that the accuracy of the GRU-Markov algorithm is higher than that of other algorithms,proving the practicability and effectiveness of this method in ship flow prediction.
