The price in an efficient market can adjust to new information instantaneously to eliminate any arbitrage opportunities. Such a phenomenon is not always observed in the real estate market because of its unique charact...The price in an efficient market can adjust to new information instantaneously to eliminate any arbitrage opportunities. Such a phenomenon is not always observed in the real estate market because of its unique characteristics, which include fixed location, heterogeneity and low transaction frequency. Using housing and office market data of some major cities in China, this paper examines the return and risk characteristics in these markets and assesses market efficiency. It finds that a number of instruments, including lagged quarterly and annual excess returns and, to some extent, the measure of the deviation of price from the intrinsic value, predict future returns. Therefore, weak form and semi-strong form efficiency can both be rejected in these real estate markets. These empirical findings suggest that there is slow price adjustment in real estate markets in China, which may be attributed to inefficient information transmission systems and long searching time in the markets.展开更多
To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the ef...To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.展开更多
As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market...As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.展开更多
In order to analyze the deep-routed reason for the failure of the real estate market regulation policy, this paper established an incomplete information tri-game model in which central government, local government and...In order to analyze the deep-routed reason for the failure of the real estate market regulation policy, this paper established an incomplete information tri-game model in which central government, local government and the real estate developer were chosen as three main research objects. Based on the analysis of their interest appeals under the assumption of rational economic man, we found that it was the difference of interest appeals of central and local governments as well as the real estate developers that caused the game among the three participants. This, however, led to the failure of the macro-control at last. Strengthening the supervision of central government and reducing its cost at the same time, what’s more, improving the efficiency of the supervision and increasing the punishment of the rent-seeking behavior between local government and the real estate developers will contribute to improve the implementation status of the regulation and control policy. We suggest the authorities improve the government political achievement appraisal system and reform the current system of benefits distribution;moreover, reform the existing regulatory system and strength the regulatory role of media and the third-party so as to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.展开更多
This study aims at the relationship between the real estate market and Amman Stock Exchange, through the impact of three macroeconomic factors （GDP, inflation rate, and the population growth rate） and another three ...This study aims at the relationship between the real estate market and Amman Stock Exchange, through the impact of three macroeconomic factors （GDP, inflation rate, and the population growth rate） and another three factors from the microeconomic indicators （interest rate, remittances of Jordanian expatriates, and the loans provided by the Jordanian banks）. The results show that the stock market is more sensitive to the microeconomic indicators than the real estate market, and responds more rapidly than the real estate market for the changes in the microeconomic indicators. The study presents some recommendations for the Jordanian companies who own or manage any investment portfolio to be aware for the existing relationship between the two markets, and to reflect this awareness in their strategic Plans, Particularly in the regression atmosphere that causes by global crisis.展开更多
Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal....Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal.” This performance is the new normal economic growh rates, “stagflation” risk appears to reduce the employment pressure, increased proportion of consumption, industrial structure transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, as well as increased demand for independent research and development. In the “new normal”, China should moderately lower economic growh target, deepening reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, the implementation of the policy mix of supply and demand double expansion, demand management, or a small amount of sound monetary tightening, fiscal expansion policy mix. “Destocking” is the main task of the real estate market, due to the effect of crowding out commercial and affordable housing between the stocks is bound to affect the development of affordable housing. Faced with the real estate market structure imbalance, we should supply-side and demand-side two-pronged approach.展开更多
The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the four...The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.展开更多
The real estate sector is vital for ensuring human needs for living and activity. This fact conditioned the formation of a legal, normative and methodological framework specific to real estate, but also the investment...The real estate sector is vital for ensuring human needs for living and activity. This fact conditioned the formation of a legal, normative and methodological framework specific to real estate, but also the investment attractiveness of the field. Thus, the real estate consultant often solves technical, economic, legal, organizational problems, but the biggest responsibility rests with investment consulting. The applied methodologies, focused on evaluating the efficiency of investments, are not sufficient to propose to the investor a reasoned conclusion regarding the investment priority. In this article, the authors propose a useful tool for real estate consultants in order to reason the decision regarding the investment of funds in commercial real estate for the purpose of renting it out—the Maximum Global Utility (MGU) method. It is proposed to include in the analysis and the way of calculating the indicator “importance level of the real estate” which reflects the criterion of the best use. This indicator ensures the flexibility of the decision depending on the quality characteristics of the real estate.展开更多
This paper first introduces the overview of real estate appraisal theory,the basic situation of real estate appraisal,the basic principles and characteristics of real estate appraisal,and three main appraisal methods....This paper first introduces the overview of real estate appraisal theory,the basic situation of real estate appraisal,the basic principles and characteristics of real estate appraisal,and three main appraisal methods.On this basis,the specific use scope of each method,the meaning of each parameter,and the influencing factors are analyzed.Then,based on the in-depth study of various existing appraisal theories and methods,a new appraisal method is proposed:the appraisal analysis method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.展开更多
Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autor...Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.展开更多
The real estate economy can directly reflect the social and economic activities, and the real estate market, as an important link under the market system, plays a good and positive role in the national macroeconomic d...The real estate economy can directly reflect the social and economic activities, and the real estate market, as an important link under the market system, plays a good and positive role in the national macroeconomic development. Both the construction and real estate economy are an important support for the development of the national economy, and jointly belong to an important part of the national economic structure. The two exist independently and influence each other. This paper mainly analyzes the practice law, benefit promotion measures and development trend of real estate and construction economy for reference.展开更多
In this paper,some methods of economics and management were used.Based on analysis of the house market structure,the factors influencing the house price,the house pricing methods and strategies were proposed.Then a ca...In this paper,some methods of economics and management were used.Based on analysis of the house market structure,the factors influencing the house price,the house pricing methods and strategies were proposed.Then a case in Nanjing was studied,and the results show:firstly,the house market is a monopolistic competitive market,and in some places it is even an oligopoly market;secondly,the cost-plus pricing method is reasonable and scientific,and the specificity is the base of pricing;thirdly,the average price of a building groups in Nanjing should be 8 906$/sq.m.Finally,aiming at the house pricing,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in this paper.展开更多
As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values,this study examines China s influence on Asian-Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective marke...As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values,this study examines China s influence on Asian-Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US,Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017.Market integration is examined by unconditional and time-varying conditional correlations,nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects.Overall,although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets,China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration,especially during the 2007-2011 crisis period.Financial crises have strengthened China s volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian-Pacific real estate markets.Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian-Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger.Therefore,diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.展开更多
China’s Ministry of Land and Resources on Feb. 18 has issued an urgent notification on regulating the country’s real estate market. The notification has been already released to all of the Chinese provincial land an...China’s Ministry of Land and Resources on Feb. 18 has issued an urgent notification on regulating the country’s real estate market. The notification has been already released to all of the Chinese provincial land and resources bureaus, autonomous regions and municipalities, requires the strict control of land development for the building of commercial housing.展开更多
On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comp...On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comparable countries (or regions). The prominent problem of the real estate market in our country is the rapid rise of urban house price and the high ratio of house price to income. The direct reason is that the social funds, especially the excessive credit funds flow into the real estate market. The indirect reason is that the land supply mode makes the land price increase too fast and account for high proportion in house price, which leads to the result that the development of real estate industry is beyond the stage of economic development. These problems are not isolated, but related to each other. The rapid rise of house prices in most of the cities, especially in the first-tier cities, is the comprehensive reflection of a large amount of credit funds promoting and the drawbacks of the land supply system in essence. The main ideas to solve the problem are correctly understanding the status, role and influence of the real estate market, stabilizing and improving the short-term control policy of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.展开更多
Curbing housing prices will rely on the effectiveness of the latest government measures sales offices for housing projects are no longer enjoying the overcrowded showrooms of prospective buyers. Agents of second-hand ...Curbing housing prices will rely on the effectiveness of the latest government measures sales offices for housing projects are no longer enjoying the overcrowded showrooms of prospective buyers. Agents of second-hand houses have resorted to canvassing clients by making repeated phone calls,展开更多
The first macro control: to cool overheated real estate investment June 2003: The People’s Bank of China issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Credit and Loan Business Management of Real
文摘The price in an efficient market can adjust to new information instantaneously to eliminate any arbitrage opportunities. Such a phenomenon is not always observed in the real estate market because of its unique characteristics, which include fixed location, heterogeneity and low transaction frequency. Using housing and office market data of some major cities in China, this paper examines the return and risk characteristics in these markets and assesses market efficiency. It finds that a number of instruments, including lagged quarterly and annual excess returns and, to some extent, the measure of the deviation of price from the intrinsic value, predict future returns. Therefore, weak form and semi-strong form efficiency can both be rejected in these real estate markets. These empirical findings suggest that there is slow price adjustment in real estate markets in China, which may be attributed to inefficient information transmission systems and long searching time in the markets.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61703014 and 62073008).
文摘To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.
文摘As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.
文摘In order to analyze the deep-routed reason for the failure of the real estate market regulation policy, this paper established an incomplete information tri-game model in which central government, local government and the real estate developer were chosen as three main research objects. Based on the analysis of their interest appeals under the assumption of rational economic man, we found that it was the difference of interest appeals of central and local governments as well as the real estate developers that caused the game among the three participants. This, however, led to the failure of the macro-control at last. Strengthening the supervision of central government and reducing its cost at the same time, what’s more, improving the efficiency of the supervision and increasing the punishment of the rent-seeking behavior between local government and the real estate developers will contribute to improve the implementation status of the regulation and control policy. We suggest the authorities improve the government political achievement appraisal system and reform the current system of benefits distribution;moreover, reform the existing regulatory system and strength the regulatory role of media and the third-party so as to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
文摘This study aims at the relationship between the real estate market and Amman Stock Exchange, through the impact of three macroeconomic factors （GDP, inflation rate, and the population growth rate） and another three factors from the microeconomic indicators （interest rate, remittances of Jordanian expatriates, and the loans provided by the Jordanian banks）. The results show that the stock market is more sensitive to the microeconomic indicators than the real estate market, and responds more rapidly than the real estate market for the changes in the microeconomic indicators. The study presents some recommendations for the Jordanian companies who own or manage any investment portfolio to be aware for the existing relationship between the two markets, and to reflect this awareness in their strategic Plans, Particularly in the regression atmosphere that causes by global crisis.
文摘Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal.” This performance is the new normal economic growh rates, “stagflation” risk appears to reduce the employment pressure, increased proportion of consumption, industrial structure transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, as well as increased demand for independent research and development. In the “new normal”, China should moderately lower economic growh target, deepening reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, the implementation of the policy mix of supply and demand double expansion, demand management, or a small amount of sound monetary tightening, fiscal expansion policy mix. “Destocking” is the main task of the real estate market, due to the effect of crowding out commercial and affordable housing between the stocks is bound to affect the development of affordable housing. Faced with the real estate market structure imbalance, we should supply-side and demand-side two-pronged approach.
文摘The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.
文摘The real estate sector is vital for ensuring human needs for living and activity. This fact conditioned the formation of a legal, normative and methodological framework specific to real estate, but also the investment attractiveness of the field. Thus, the real estate consultant often solves technical, economic, legal, organizational problems, but the biggest responsibility rests with investment consulting. The applied methodologies, focused on evaluating the efficiency of investments, are not sufficient to propose to the investor a reasoned conclusion regarding the investment priority. In this article, the authors propose a useful tool for real estate consultants in order to reason the decision regarding the investment of funds in commercial real estate for the purpose of renting it out—the Maximum Global Utility (MGU) method. It is proposed to include in the analysis and the way of calculating the indicator “importance level of the real estate” which reflects the criterion of the best use. This indicator ensures the flexibility of the decision depending on the quality characteristics of the real estate.
文摘This paper first introduces the overview of real estate appraisal theory,the basic situation of real estate appraisal,the basic principles and characteristics of real estate appraisal,and three main appraisal methods.On this basis,the specific use scope of each method,the meaning of each parameter,and the influencing factors are analyzed.Then,based on the in-depth study of various existing appraisal theories and methods,a new appraisal method is proposed:the appraisal analysis method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.
文摘Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.
文摘The real estate economy can directly reflect the social and economic activities, and the real estate market, as an important link under the market system, plays a good and positive role in the national macroeconomic development. Both the construction and real estate economy are an important support for the development of the national economy, and jointly belong to an important part of the national economic structure. The two exist independently and influence each other. This paper mainly analyzes the practice law, benefit promotion measures and development trend of real estate and construction economy for reference.
文摘In this paper,some methods of economics and management were used.Based on analysis of the house market structure,the factors influencing the house price,the house pricing methods and strategies were proposed.Then a case in Nanjing was studied,and the results show:firstly,the house market is a monopolistic competitive market,and in some places it is even an oligopoly market;secondly,the cost-plus pricing method is reasonable and scientific,and the specificity is the base of pricing;thirdly,the average price of a building groups in Nanjing should be 8 906$/sq.m.Finally,aiming at the house pricing,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in this paper.
文摘As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values,this study examines China s influence on Asian-Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US,Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017.Market integration is examined by unconditional and time-varying conditional correlations,nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects.Overall,although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets,China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration,especially during the 2007-2011 crisis period.Financial crises have strengthened China s volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian-Pacific real estate markets.Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian-Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger.Therefore,diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.
文摘China’s Ministry of Land and Resources on Feb. 18 has issued an urgent notification on regulating the country’s real estate market. The notification has been already released to all of the Chinese provincial land and resources bureaus, autonomous regions and municipalities, requires the strict control of land development for the building of commercial housing.
基金Major projects of the National Social Science Fund“Research on China’s Industrial Structure Adjustment and Upgrading under the Supply-Side Reform and Coordinated Demand-Side Reform during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period”(16ZDA004)。
文摘On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comparable countries (or regions). The prominent problem of the real estate market in our country is the rapid rise of urban house price and the high ratio of house price to income. The direct reason is that the social funds, especially the excessive credit funds flow into the real estate market. The indirect reason is that the land supply mode makes the land price increase too fast and account for high proportion in house price, which leads to the result that the development of real estate industry is beyond the stage of economic development. These problems are not isolated, but related to each other. The rapid rise of house prices in most of the cities, especially in the first-tier cities, is the comprehensive reflection of a large amount of credit funds promoting and the drawbacks of the land supply system in essence. The main ideas to solve the problem are correctly understanding the status, role and influence of the real estate market, stabilizing and improving the short-term control policy of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.
文摘Curbing housing prices will rely on the effectiveness of the latest government measures sales offices for housing projects are no longer enjoying the overcrowded showrooms of prospective buyers. Agents of second-hand houses have resorted to canvassing clients by making repeated phone calls,
文摘The first macro control: to cool overheated real estate investment June 2003: The People’s Bank of China issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Credit and Loan Business Management of Real
