This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand （SUEED） model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables...This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand （SUEED） model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables with respect to the perturbation parameters for the SUEED model. Then by taking advantage of the gradient-based method for sensitivity analysis of a general nonlinear program, detailed formulae are developed for calculating the derivatives of designed variables with respect to perturbation parameters at the equilibrium state of the SUEED model. This method is not only applicable for a sensitivity analysis of the logit-type SUEED problem, but also for the probit-type SUEED problem. The application of the proposed method in a numerical example shows that the proposed method can be used to approximate the equilibrium link flow solutions for both logit-type SUEED and probit-type SUEED problems when small perturbations are introduced in the input parameters.展开更多
Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network cap...Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network capacity degradations. In this paper, a mixed stochastic user equilibrium model was proposed to describe the interactive route choice behaviors between ATIS equipped and unequipped drivers on a degradable transport network. In the proposed model the information accessibility of equipped drivers was reflected by lower degree of uncertainty in their stochastic equilibrium flow distributions, and their behavioral adaptability was captured by multiple equilibrium behaviors over the stochastic network state set. The mixed equilibrium model was formulated as a fixed point problem defined in the mixed route flows, and its solution was achieved by executing an iterative algorithm. Numerical experiments were provided to verify the properties of the mixed network equilibrium model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm.展开更多
The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic ...The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic perception error(SPE) within travelers' route choice decision process is developed. The SPE is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit-based stochastic user equilibrium. The CPT-UE model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and efficiency of the solution algorithm. The effects of SPE on the reference point determination, cumulative prospect value estimation, route choice decision and network performance evaluation are investigated.展开更多
Traffic assignment has been recognized as one of the key technologies in supporting transportation planning and operations.To better address the perfectly rational issue of the expected utility theory(EUT)and the over...Traffic assignment has been recognized as one of the key technologies in supporting transportation planning and operations.To better address the perfectly rational issue of the expected utility theory(EUT)and the overlapping path issue of the multinomial logit(MNL)model that are involved in the traffic assignment process,this paper proposes a cumulative prospect value(CPV)-based generalized nested logit(GNL)stochastic user equilibrium(SUE)model.The proposed model uses CPV to replace the utility value as the path performance within the GNL model framework.An equivalent mathematical model is provided for the proposed CPV-based GNL SUE model,which is solved by the method of successive averages(MSA).The existence and equivalence of the solution are also proved for the equivalent model.To demonstrate the performance of the proposed CPV-based GNL SUE model,three road networks are selected in the empirical test.The results show that the proposed model can jointly deal with the perfectly rational issue and the overlapping path issue,and additionally,the proposed model is shown to be applicable for large road networks.展开更多
Based on the framework of method of successive averages(MSA), a modified stochastic user-equilibrium assignment algorithm was proposed, which can be used to calculate the passenger flow distribution of urban rail tran...Based on the framework of method of successive averages(MSA), a modified stochastic user-equilibrium assignment algorithm was proposed, which can be used to calculate the passenger flow distribution of urban rail transit(URT) under network operation. In order to describe the congestion's impact to passengers' route choices, a generalized cost function with in-vehicle congestion was set up. Building on the k-th shortest path algorithm, a method for generating choice set with time constraint was embedded, considering the characteristics of network operation. A simple but efficient route choice model, which was derived from travel surveys for URT passengers in China, was introduced to perform the stochastic network loading at each iteration in the algorithm. Initial tests on the URT network in Shanghai City show that the methodology, with rational calculation time, promises to compute more precisely the passenger flow distribution of URT under network operation, compared with those practical algorithms used in today's China.展开更多
The paper analyses integrating origin-destination (O-D) survey results with stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) in traffic assignment. The two methods are widely used in transportation planning but their applications ha...The paper analyses integrating origin-destination (O-D) survey results with stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) in traffic assignment. The two methods are widely used in transportation planning but their applications have not yet fully integrated. While O-D gives a generalized trip patterns, purpose and characteristics, SUE provides optimal trip distributions using the characteristics found in O-D survey. The paper utilized O-D and SUE in route relocation study for the town of Coamo in Puerto Rico. The O-D survey was used initially in studying possible trip distribution and assignment for the new route. Initial distribution and assignment of traffic to the existing roadway networks and the proposed route were allocated utilizing the O-D survey findings. The SUE was then used to optimize the assignments considering roadway characteristics such as number of lanes, capacity limits, free flow speed, signal spacing density, travel time and gasoline cost. The travel time was optimized through the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) equation found in 2000 HCM. The optimal trips found from the SUE were then used to propose the final alignment of the new route. Traffic assignment from the SUE was slightly different from those initially assigned using O-D, indicating there was optimization. The assignment on new route was increased by 13.8% from the one assigned using O-D while assignment on the existing link was reduced by 22%.展开更多
Considering the range anxiety issue caused by the limited driving range and the scarcity of battery charging stations,the conventional multinomial logit(MNL)model with the overlapping path issue was used in route choi...Considering the range anxiety issue caused by the limited driving range and the scarcity of battery charging stations,the conventional multinomial logit(MNL)model with the overlapping path issue was used in route choice modeling to describe the route choice behavior of travelers effectively.Furthermore,the generalized nested logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(GNL-SUE)model with the constraints of multiple user classes and distance limits was proposed.A mathematical model was developed and solved by the method of successive averages.The mathematical model was proven to be analytically equivalent to the modified GNL-SUE model,and the uniqueness of the solution was also confirmed.The proposed mathematical model was tested and compared with the GNL-SUE model without a distance limit and the MNL-SUE model with a distance limit.Results show that the proposed mathematical model can effectively handle the range anxiety and overlapping path challenges.展开更多
We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal R...We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.展开更多
A discrete time stochastic traffic assignment model is proposed. The model provides a discrete time description of the variations of flows on a road network during a day or a peak period. The congestion effect at li...A discrete time stochastic traffic assignment model is proposed. The model provides a discrete time description of the variations of flows on a road network during a day or a peak period. The congestion effect at links and link junctions are taken into account. The first in first out principle is enforced on all links at all periods of the day. A stochastic user equilibrium assignment is achieved when the tripmaker is unable to find better travel alternatives. A computational procedure is also presented.展开更多
The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertain...The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.展开更多
Park-and-ride （P＆R） facilities can alleviate the traffic burden in central urban areas by enabling car drivers to park at the perimeter of congested areas and continue their journeys with public transportation （e....Park-and-ride （P＆R） facilities can alleviate the traffic burden in central urban areas by enabling car drivers to park at the perimeter of congested areas and continue their journeys with public transportation （e.g., metro and bus rapid transit）. Whether a P＆R scheme is successful depends on its attractiveness to car users. This paper presents anevaluation method for the reliability analysis of P＆R mode. Two indices, P＆R reliability and mode reliability, are in- troduced to represent the reliabilities of a transfer point and an entire trip, respectively. Then, a systematic reliability analysis is conducted for a stochastic P＆R network, where travelers can complete their journeys via two options： auto mode or P＆R mode. A variational inequality （VI） model is proposed and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Nu- merical results show that the P＆R facility reliability is significantly influenced by the capacity of parking facilities, the dispatching frequency of the connecting metro, and the metro fare. In addition, a higher level of total demand in the network has significant negative impacts on P＆R mode＇s attractiveness compared to auto mode.展开更多
Compared with standard logit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment model,the C-logit model describes route choice behavior in a more realistic way by considering the overlapping effect between routes.This paper...Compared with standard logit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment model,the C-logit model describes route choice behavior in a more realistic way by considering the overlapping effect between routes.This paper investigates the inefficiency upper bounds of this model against the deterministic system optimum and the C-logit stochastic system optimum in terms of the total network travel time.It is found that the commonality factor of overlapping routes significantly affects the inefficiency bound,besides link congestion degree,total demand and the number of feasible routes.If the commonality factor is not considered,the efficiency loss resulting from selfishly stochastic travel behavior will be to large extent underestimated.展开更多
Purpose – The volume of passenger traffic at metro transfer stations serves as a pivotal metric for theorchestration of crowd flow management. Given the intricacies of crowd dynamics within these stations andthe recu...Purpose – The volume of passenger traffic at metro transfer stations serves as a pivotal metric for theorchestration of crowd flow management. Given the intricacies of crowd dynamics within these stations andthe recurrent instances of substantial passenger influxes, a methodology predicated on stochastic processesand the principle of user equilibrium is introduced to facilitate real-time traffic flow estimation within transferstation streamlines.Design/methodology/approach – The synthesis of stochastic process theory with streamline analysisengenders a probabilistic model of intra-station pedestrian traffic dynamics. Leveraging real-time passengerflow data procured from monitoring systems within the transfer station, a gradient descent optimizationtechnique is employed to minimize the cost function, thereby deducing the dynamic distribution of categorizedpassenger flows. Subsequently, adhering to the tenets of user equilibrium, the Frank–Wolfe algorithm isimplemented to allocate the intra-station categorized passenger flows across various streamlines, ascertainingthe traffic volume for each.Findings – Utilizing the Xiaozhai Station of the Xi’an Metro as a case study, the Anylogic simulation softwareis engaged to emulate the intra-station crowd dynamics, thereby substantiating the efficacy of the proposedpassenger flow estimation model. The derived solutions are instrumental in formulating a crowd controlstrategy for Xiaozhai Station during the peak interval from 17:30 to 18:00 on a designated day, yielding crowdmanagement interventions that offer insights for the orchestration of passenger flow and operationalgovernance within metro stations.Originality/value – The construction of an estimation methodology for the real-time streamline traffic flowaugments the model’s dataset, supplanting estimated values derived from surveys or historical datasets withreal-time computed traffic data, thereby enhancing the precision and immediacy of crowd flow managementwithin metro stations.展开更多
Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational.Recently,regret theory has attracted researchers'attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior.This paper proposes a multiclass ...Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational.Recently,regret theory has attracted researchers'attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior.This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory.All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion.The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret.The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method.The numerical results show that users'regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.展开更多
基金The Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX13_110)the Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51408253)the Young Scientists Fund of Huaiyin Institute of Technology(No.491713328)
文摘This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand （SUEED） model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables with respect to the perturbation parameters for the SUEED model. Then by taking advantage of the gradient-based method for sensitivity analysis of a general nonlinear program, detailed formulae are developed for calculating the derivatives of designed variables with respect to perturbation parameters at the equilibrium state of the SUEED model. This method is not only applicable for a sensitivity analysis of the logit-type SUEED problem, but also for the probit-type SUEED problem. The application of the proposed method in a numerical example shows that the proposed method can be used to approximate the equilibrium link flow solutions for both logit-type SUEED and probit-type SUEED problems when small perturbations are introduced in the input parameters.
基金Projects(51378119,51578150)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network capacity degradations. In this paper, a mixed stochastic user equilibrium model was proposed to describe the interactive route choice behaviors between ATIS equipped and unequipped drivers on a degradable transport network. In the proposed model the information accessibility of equipped drivers was reflected by lower degree of uncertainty in their stochastic equilibrium flow distributions, and their behavioral adaptability was captured by multiple equilibrium behaviors over the stochastic network state set. The mixed equilibrium model was formulated as a fixed point problem defined in the mixed route flows, and its solution was achieved by executing an iterative algorithm. Numerical experiments were provided to verify the properties of the mixed network equilibrium model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm.
基金Project(2012CB725400)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71271023,71322102)supported by the National Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2015JBM053)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic perception error(SPE) within travelers' route choice decision process is developed. The SPE is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit-based stochastic user equilibrium. The CPT-UE model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and efficiency of the solution algorithm. The effects of SPE on the reference point determination, cumulative prospect value estimation, route choice decision and network performance evaluation are investigated.
基金Project(KYLX16_0271)supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province,China。
文摘Traffic assignment has been recognized as one of the key technologies in supporting transportation planning and operations.To better address the perfectly rational issue of the expected utility theory(EUT)and the overlapping path issue of the multinomial logit(MNL)model that are involved in the traffic assignment process,this paper proposes a cumulative prospect value(CPV)-based generalized nested logit(GNL)stochastic user equilibrium(SUE)model.The proposed model uses CPV to replace the utility value as the path performance within the GNL model framework.An equivalent mathematical model is provided for the proposed CPV-based GNL SUE model,which is solved by the method of successive averages(MSA).The existence and equivalence of the solution are also proved for the equivalent model.To demonstrate the performance of the proposed CPV-based GNL SUE model,three road networks are selected in the empirical test.The results show that the proposed model can jointly deal with the perfectly rational issue and the overlapping path issue,and additionally,the proposed model is shown to be applicable for large road networks.
基金Project(2007AA11Z236) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of ChinaProject(2012M5209O1) supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
文摘Based on the framework of method of successive averages(MSA), a modified stochastic user-equilibrium assignment algorithm was proposed, which can be used to calculate the passenger flow distribution of urban rail transit(URT) under network operation. In order to describe the congestion's impact to passengers' route choices, a generalized cost function with in-vehicle congestion was set up. Building on the k-th shortest path algorithm, a method for generating choice set with time constraint was embedded, considering the characteristics of network operation. A simple but efficient route choice model, which was derived from travel surveys for URT passengers in China, was introduced to perform the stochastic network loading at each iteration in the algorithm. Initial tests on the URT network in Shanghai City show that the methodology, with rational calculation time, promises to compute more precisely the passenger flow distribution of URT under network operation, compared with those practical algorithms used in today's China.
文摘The paper analyses integrating origin-destination (O-D) survey results with stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) in traffic assignment. The two methods are widely used in transportation planning but their applications have not yet fully integrated. While O-D gives a generalized trip patterns, purpose and characteristics, SUE provides optimal trip distributions using the characteristics found in O-D survey. The paper utilized O-D and SUE in route relocation study for the town of Coamo in Puerto Rico. The O-D survey was used initially in studying possible trip distribution and assignment for the new route. Initial distribution and assignment of traffic to the existing roadway networks and the proposed route were allocated utilizing the O-D survey findings. The SUE was then used to optimize the assignments considering roadway characteristics such as number of lanes, capacity limits, free flow speed, signal spacing density, travel time and gasoline cost. The travel time was optimized through the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) equation found in 2000 HCM. The optimal trips found from the SUE were then used to propose the final alignment of the new route. Traffic assignment from the SUE was slightly different from those initially assigned using O-D, indicating there was optimization. The assignment on new route was increased by 13.8% from the one assigned using O-D while assignment on the existing link was reduced by 22%.
基金The Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYLX16_0271).
文摘Considering the range anxiety issue caused by the limited driving range and the scarcity of battery charging stations,the conventional multinomial logit(MNL)model with the overlapping path issue was used in route choice modeling to describe the route choice behavior of travelers effectively.Furthermore,the generalized nested logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(GNL-SUE)model with the constraints of multiple user classes and distance limits was proposed.A mathematical model was developed and solved by the method of successive averages.The mathematical model was proven to be analytically equivalent to the modified GNL-SUE model,and the uniqueness of the solution was also confirmed.The proposed mathematical model was tested and compared with the GNL-SUE model without a distance limit and the MNL-SUE model with a distance limit.Results show that the proposed mathematical model can effectively handle the range anxiety and overlapping path challenges.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of People’s Republic of China(Grant no.20JHQ016)the National Social Science Fund of China(Grant no.17BGJ059)。
文摘We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.
文摘A discrete time stochastic traffic assignment model is proposed. The model provides a discrete time description of the variations of flows on a road network during a day or a peak period. The congestion effect at links and link junctions are taken into account. The first in first out principle is enforced on all links at all periods of the day. A stochastic user equilibrium assignment is achieved when the tripmaker is unable to find better travel alternatives. A computational procedure is also presented.
基金Project(BX20180268)supported by National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talent,ChinaProject(300102228101)supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China+1 种基金Project(51578150)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(18YJCZH130)supported by the Humanities and Social Science Project of Chinese Ministry of Education
文摘The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Nos. 51178403 and 51108391)
文摘Park-and-ride （P＆R） facilities can alleviate the traffic burden in central urban areas by enabling car drivers to park at the perimeter of congested areas and continue their journeys with public transportation （e.g., metro and bus rapid transit）. Whether a P＆R scheme is successful depends on its attractiveness to car users. This paper presents anevaluation method for the reliability analysis of P＆R mode. Two indices, P＆R reliability and mode reliability, are in- troduced to represent the reliabilities of a transfer point and an entire trip, respectively. Then, a systematic reliability analysis is conducted for a stochastic P＆R network, where travelers can complete their journeys via two options： auto mode or P＆R mode. A variational inequality （VI） model is proposed and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Nu- merical results show that the P＆R facility reliability is significantly influenced by the capacity of parking facilities, the dispatching frequency of the connecting metro, and the metro fare. In addition, a higher level of total demand in the network has significant negative impacts on P＆R mode＇s attractiveness compared to auto mode.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No.2012CB725401the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71271001 and 71401083the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University under Grant No.NCET-13-0025
文摘Compared with standard logit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment model,the C-logit model describes route choice behavior in a more realistic way by considering the overlapping effect between routes.This paper investigates the inefficiency upper bounds of this model against the deterministic system optimum and the C-logit stochastic system optimum in terms of the total network travel time.It is found that the commonality factor of overlapping routes significantly affects the inefficiency bound,besides link congestion degree,total demand and the number of feasible routes.If the commonality factor is not considered,the efficiency loss resulting from selfishly stochastic travel behavior will be to large extent underestimated.
文摘Purpose – The volume of passenger traffic at metro transfer stations serves as a pivotal metric for theorchestration of crowd flow management. Given the intricacies of crowd dynamics within these stations andthe recurrent instances of substantial passenger influxes, a methodology predicated on stochastic processesand the principle of user equilibrium is introduced to facilitate real-time traffic flow estimation within transferstation streamlines.Design/methodology/approach – The synthesis of stochastic process theory with streamline analysisengenders a probabilistic model of intra-station pedestrian traffic dynamics. Leveraging real-time passengerflow data procured from monitoring systems within the transfer station, a gradient descent optimizationtechnique is employed to minimize the cost function, thereby deducing the dynamic distribution of categorizedpassenger flows. Subsequently, adhering to the tenets of user equilibrium, the Frank–Wolfe algorithm isimplemented to allocate the intra-station categorized passenger flows across various streamlines, ascertainingthe traffic volume for each.Findings – Utilizing the Xiaozhai Station of the Xi’an Metro as a case study, the Anylogic simulation softwareis engaged to emulate the intra-station crowd dynamics, thereby substantiating the efficacy of the proposedpassenger flow estimation model. The derived solutions are instrumental in formulating a crowd controlstrategy for Xiaozhai Station during the peak interval from 17:30 to 18:00 on a designated day, yielding crowdmanagement interventions that offer insights for the orchestration of passenger flow and operationalgovernance within metro stations.Originality/value – The construction of an estimation methodology for the real-time streamline traffic flowaugments the model’s dataset, supplanting estimated values derived from surveys or historical datasets withreal-time computed traffic data, thereby enhancing the precision and immediacy of crowd flow managementwithin metro stations.
基金This research was supported in part by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB725401)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.YWF-16-JCTD-A-07)This work was also supported by the Excellence Foundation of BUAA for PhD Students.
文摘Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational.Recently,regret theory has attracted researchers'attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior.This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory.All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion.The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret.The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method.The numerical results show that users'regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.
