Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem ...As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.展开更多
In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision fact...In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision factors on site selection of affordable housing through a literature review to construct a hierarchy model of those factors identifying the weight of each factor by an analytic hierarchy process AHP .Based on those weight factors the CA-MAS model is designed. Nanjing city is taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the CA-MAS model is pragmatic and effective in simulating evolution of affordable housing land use which also promotes the fundamental understanding and perception of the development of affordable housing and urbanization.展开更多
The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holisti...The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.展开更多
This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocatio...This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.展开更多
Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beiji...Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve futur...Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.展开更多
Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited...Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.展开更多
Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this...Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological pro...Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.展开更多
Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-R...Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.展开更多
Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present an...Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.展开更多
Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and mult...Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.展开更多
The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary...The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.展开更多
A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the ...A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.展开更多
Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land sup...Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.展开更多
Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base...Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows：（1） The areas under ROC curves of land-use types（LUTs） were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.（2） The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.（3） The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.展开更多
Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scien...Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).展开更多
This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed.The Direct Computer Mapping(DCM)based solution starts from GIS layers an...This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed.The Direct Computer Mapping(DCM)based solution starts from GIS layers and,via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network,the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model.The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton,Hungary.In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses,121 water sections,57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model.The hydrological model involved precipitation,evaporation,transpiration,runoff,infiltration.The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment(CORINE)land cover based simplified‘‘land patch”model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches,rivers and lakes.The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models,which,after validation can support the analysis of various land use,with the consideration of environmental aspects.展开更多
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
基金Under the auspices of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Soochow University(No.22XM2008)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.23BGL168)。
文摘As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.
基金The National Social Science Foundation of China(No.14AJY013)the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX13_126)
文摘In order to simulate the evolution of affordable housing land use a dynamic model that combines cellular automata CA and a multi-agent system MAS is established.This paper aims to utilize the approach of decision factors on site selection of affordable housing through a literature review to construct a hierarchy model of those factors identifying the weight of each factor by an analytic hierarchy process AHP .Based on those weight factors the CA-MAS model is designed. Nanjing city is taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the CA-MAS model is pragmatic and effective in simulating evolution of affordable housing land use which also promotes the fundamental understanding and perception of the development of affordable housing and urbanization.
基金supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program (2022xjkk1100)the Tianchi Talent Project
文摘The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70903061,41171440)National Public Benefit (Land) Research Foundation of China (No. 201111014)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2011YXL055)
文摘This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under(Grant No.41877533)Beijing Social Science Foundation(Grant No.18GLB014)
文摘Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
文摘Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.
基金This research received was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42271217)the Guangdong Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(Grant No.GD21CGL15).
文摘Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.
基金supported by the Innovation Projects for Overseas Returnees of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region-Study on Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin(202303)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067022,41761066)the Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China(2022AAC03024)。
文摘Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0704705)。
文摘Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41971219,41571168)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(No.2020JJ4372)Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project of Hunan Province(No.18ZDB015)。
文摘Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42276234)National Social Science Foundation Major Project of China(No.23&ZD105)+1 种基金the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Natural Resources of China(No.2023CZEPK04)the Science and Technology Major Project of Ningbo(No.2021Z181)。
文摘Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U2102209)。
文摘Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42371185National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,No.41901151。
文摘The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.
基金Supported jointly by the National Key Program for Developin Basic Sciences (2006CB400506)the Open Research Fund of Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration
文摘A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China,No.15BJY051Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province,No.16ZDB04,No.13YBA016+2 种基金Research Project of Appraisement Committee of Social Sciences Research Achievements of Hunan Province,No.XSP18ZDI031Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,No.2017JJ2264Science&Technology Research Project of the Department of Land and Resource of Hunan Province,No.2014-13
文摘Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.
基金Chongqing University Innovation Team for 2016,No.CXTDX201601017Chongqing Research Program of Basic Research and Frontier Technology,No.cstc2017jcyjB0317
文摘Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change（LUC） study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region（TGRR） in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows：（1） The areas under ROC curves of land-use types（LUTs） were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.（2） The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.（3） The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(31470518)The Project Supported by Institute of Culture and Tourism Development of Beijing Technology and Business University(202106104)。
文摘Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).
基金The research is supported by the Hungarian‘Social Renewal Operational Programme’in the frame of the TA´MOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0038 projectas well as by the Bilateral Chinese-Hungarian project in the frame of TE´T_12_CN-1-2012-0041 project.
文摘This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed.The Direct Computer Mapping(DCM)based solution starts from GIS layers and,via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network,the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model.The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton,Hungary.In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses,121 water sections,57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model.The hydrological model involved precipitation,evaporation,transpiration,runoff,infiltration.The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment(CORINE)land cover based simplified‘‘land patch”model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches,rivers and lakes.The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models,which,after validation can support the analysis of various land use,with the consideration of environmental aspects.
