To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage p...To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.展开更多
In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of t...In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.展开更多
Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex a...Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties.展开更多
On basis of test information, the research performed analysis on water production function models of two crops, which indicated that water model of crops in whole growth stage and water model of crops indifferent grow...On basis of test information, the research performed analysis on water production function models of two crops, which indicated that water model of crops in whole growth stage and water model of crops indifferent growth stages have consistency as well as differences, providing references for optimization of irrigation water. Meanwhile, the research analyzed the deficiency of optimization on irrigation water for crops just by Jensen model.展开更多
To gain a better understanding about texture evolution during rolling process of AZ31 alloy, polycrystalline plasticity model was implemented into the explicit FE package, ABAQUS/Explicit by writing a user subroutine ...To gain a better understanding about texture evolution during rolling process of AZ31 alloy, polycrystalline plasticity model was implemented into the explicit FE package, ABAQUS/Explicit by writing a user subroutine VUMAT. For each individual grain in the polycrystalline aggregate, the rate dependent model was adopted to calculate the plastic shear strain increment in combination with the Voce hardening law to describe the hardening response, the lattice reorientation caused by slip and twinning were calculated separately due to their different mechanisms. The elasto-plastic self consistent （EPSC） model was employed to relate the response of individual grain to the response of the polycrystalline aggregate. Rolling processes of AZ31 sheet and as-cast AZ31 alloy were simulated respectively. The predicted texture distributions are in aualitative a^reement with experimental results.展开更多
Consistency of LS estimate of simple linear EV model is studied. It is shown that under some common assumptions of the model, both weak and strong consistency of the estimate are equivalent but it is not so for quadra...Consistency of LS estimate of simple linear EV model is studied. It is shown that under some common assumptions of the model, both weak and strong consistency of the estimate are equivalent but it is not so for quadratic-mean consistency.展开更多
This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what...This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what its neighbors believe that agent is doing is penalized in the cost function of each agent. At each sampling instant the compatibility constraint of each agent is set tighter than the previous sampling instant. Like the traditional approach, the performance cost is utilized as the Lyapunov function to prove closed-looped stability. The closed-loop stability is guaranteed if the weight matrix for deviation in the cost function are sufficiently large. The proposed distributed control scheme is formulated as quadratic programming with quadratic constraints. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.展开更多
This study analyzes the transmission of typhoid fever caused by Salmonella typhi using a mathematical model thathighlights the significance of delay in its effectiveness.Time delays can affect the nature of patterns a...This study analyzes the transmission of typhoid fever caused by Salmonella typhi using a mathematical model thathighlights the significance of delay in its effectiveness.Time delays can affect the nature of patterns and slow downthe emergence of patterns in infected population density.The analyzed model is expanded with the equilibriumanalysis,reproduction number,and stability analysis.This study aims to establish and explore the non-standardfinite difference(NSFD)scheme for the typhoid fever virus transmission model with a time delay.In addition,the forward Euler method and Runge-Kutta method of order 4(RK-4)are also applied in the present research.Some significant properties,such as convergence,positivity,boundedness,and consistency,are explored,and theproposed scheme preserves all the mentioned properties.The theoretical validation is conducted on how NSFDoutperforms other methods in emulating key aspects of the continuous model,such as positive solution,stability,and equilibrium about delay.Hence,the above analysis also shows some of the limitations of the conventional finitedifference methods,such as forward Euler and RK-4 in simulating such critical behaviors.This becomes moreapparent when using larger steps.This indicated that NSFD is beneficial in identifying the essential characteristicsof the continuous model with higher accuracy than the traditional approaches.展开更多
Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） ...Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.展开更多
The radon transport test, which is a widely used test case for atmospheric transport models, is carried out to evaluate the tracer advection schemes in the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP-LASG （GAMIL）. Two of th...The radon transport test, which is a widely used test case for atmospheric transport models, is carried out to evaluate the tracer advection schemes in the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP-LASG （GAMIL）. Two of the three available schemes in the model are found to be associated with significant biases in the polar regions and in the upper part of the atmosphere, which implies potentially large errors in the simulation of ozone-like tracers. Theoretical analyses show that inconsistency exists between the advection schemes and the discrete continuity equation in the dynamical core of GAMIL and consequently leads to spurious sources and sinks in the tracer transport equation. The impact of this type of inconsistency is demonstrated by idealized tests and identified as the cause of the aforementioned biases. Other potential effects of this inconsistency are also discussed. Results of this study provide some hints for choosing suitable advection schemes in the GAMIL model. At least for the polax-region-concentrated atmospheric components and the closely correlated chemical species, the Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian advection scheme produces more reasonable simulations of the large-scale transport processes without significantly increasing the computational expense.展开更多
Marine information has been increasing quickly. The traditional database technologies have disadvantages in manipulating large amounts of marine information which relates to the position in 3-D with the time. Recently...Marine information has been increasing quickly. The traditional database technologies have disadvantages in manipulating large amounts of marine information which relates to the position in 3-D with the time. Recently, greater emphasis has been placed on GIS （geographical information system）to deal with the marine information. The GIS has shown great success for terrestrial applications in the last decades, but its use in marine fields has been far more restricted. One of the main reasons is that most of the GIS systems or their data models are designed for land applications. They cannot do well with the nature of the marine environment and for the marine information. And this becomes a fundamental challenge to the traditional GIS and its data structure. This work designed a data model, the raster-based spatio-temporal hierarchical data model （RSHDM）, for the marine information system, or for the knowledge discovery fi＇om spatio-temporal data, which bases itself on the nature of the marine data and overcomes the shortages of the current spatio-temporal models when they are used in the field. As an experiment, the marine fishery data warehouse （FDW） for marine fishery management was set up, which was based on the RSHDM. The experiment proved that the RSHDM can do well with the data and can extract easily the aggregations that the management needs at different levels.展开更多
The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation sy...The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation system is in charge of storing incremental data,and the spatio-temporal data model for storing incremental data does affect the efficiency of the response of the data center to the requirements of incremental data from the vehicle terminal.According to the analysis on the shortcomings of several typical spatio-temporal data models used in the data center and based on the base map with overlay model,the reverse map with overlay model (RMOM) was put forward for the data center to make rapid response to incremental data request.RMOM supports the data center to store not only the current complete road network data,but also the overlays of incremental data from the time when each road network changed to the current moment.Moreover,the storage mechanism and index structure of the incremental data were designed,and the implementation algorithm of RMOM was developed.Taking navigational road network in Guangzhou City as an example,the simulation test was conducted to validate the efficiency of RMOM.Results show that the navigation database in the data center can response to the requirements of incremental data by only one query with RMOM,and costs less time.Compared with the base map with overlay model,the data center does not need to temporarily overlay incremental data with RMOM,so time-consuming of response is significantly reduced.RMOM greatly improves the efficiency of response and provides strong support for the real-time situation of navigational road network.展开更多
Inclusion of dissipation and memory mechanisms, non-classical elasticity and thermal effects in the currently used plate/shell mathematical models require that we establish if these mathematical models can be derived ...Inclusion of dissipation and memory mechanisms, non-classical elasticity and thermal effects in the currently used plate/shell mathematical models require that we establish if these mathematical models can be derived using the conservation and balance laws of continuum mechanics in conjunction with the corresponding kinematic assumptions. This is referred to as thermodynamic consistency of the mathematical models. Thermodynamic consistency ensures thermodynamic equilibrium during the evolution of the deformation. When the mathematical models are thermodynamically consistent, the second law of thermodynamics facilitates consistent derivations of constitutive theories in the presence of dissipation and memory mechanisms. This is the main motivation for the work presented in this paper. In the currently used mathematical models for plates/shells based on the assumed kinematic relations, energy functional is constructed over the volume consisting of kinetic energy, strain energy and the potential energy of the loads. The Euler’s equations derived from the first variation of the energy functional for arbitrary length when set to zero yield the mathematical model(s) for the deforming plates/shells. Alternatively, principle of virtual work can also be used to derive the same mathematical model(s). For linear elastic reversible deformation physics with small deformation and small strain, these two approaches, based on energy functional and the principle of virtual work, yield the same mathematical models. These mathematical models hold for reversible mechanical deformation. In this paper, we examine whether the currently used plate/shell mathematical models with the corresponding kinematic assumptions can be derived using the conservation and balance laws of classical or non-classical continuum mechanics. The mathematical models based on Kirchhoff hypothesis (classical plate theory, CPT) and first order shear deformation theory (FSDT) that are representative of most mathematical models for plates/shells are investigated in this paper for their thermodynamic consistency. This is followed by the details of a general and higher order thermodynamically consistent plate/shell thermoelastic mathematical model that is free of a priori consideration of kinematic assumptions and remains valid for very thin as well as thick plates/shells with comprehensive nonlinear constitutive theories based on integrity. Model problem studies are presented for small deformation behavior of linear elastic plates in the absence of thermal effects and the results are compared with CPT and FSDT mathematical models.展开更多
Based on the consistency-viscoplastic constitutive model,the static William-Warnke model with three-parameters is modified and a consistency-viscoplastic William-Warnke model with three-parameters is developed that co...Based on the consistency-viscoplastic constitutive model,the static William-Warnke model with three-parameters is modified and a consistency-viscoplastic William-Warnke model with three-parameters is developed that considers the effect of strain rates. Then,the tangent modulus of the consistency viscoplastic model is introduced and an implicit backward Elure iterative algorithm is developed. Comparisons between the numerical simulations and experimental data show that the consistency model properly provides the uniaxial and biaxial dynamic behaviors of concrete. To study the effect of strain rates on the dynamic response of concrete structures,the proposed model is used in the analysis of the dynamic response of a simply-supported beam and the results show that the strain rate has a significant effect on the displacement and stress magnitudes and distributions. Finally,the seismic responses of a 278 m high arch dam are obtained and compared by using the linear elastic model,as well as rate-independent and rate-dependent William-Warnke three-parameter models. The results indicate that the strain rate affects the first principal stresses,and the maximal equivalent viscoplastic strain rate of the arch dam. Numerical calculations and analyses reveal that considering the strain rate is important in the safety assessments of arch dams located in seismically active areas.展开更多
Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon(SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and know...Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon(SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03(1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40(2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of –440 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.展开更多
The development of spatio-temporal data model is introduced. According to the soil characteristic of reclamation land, we adopt the base state with amendments model of multi-layer raster to organize the spatio-tempora...The development of spatio-temporal data model is introduced. According to the soil characteristic of reclamation land, we adopt the base state with amendments model of multi-layer raster to organize the spatio-temporal data, using the combined data structure on linear quadtree and linear octree to code. The advantage of this model is that it can easily obtain the information of certain layer and integratedly analyze the data with other methods. Then, the methods of obtain and analyses are introduced. The method can provide a tool for the research of the soil characteristic change and spatial distribution in reclamation land.展开更多
The present work is related to the numerical investigation of the spatio-temporal susceptible-latent-breaking out-recovered(SLBR)epidemic model.It describes the computer virus dynamics with vertical transmission via t...The present work is related to the numerical investigation of the spatio-temporal susceptible-latent-breaking out-recovered(SLBR)epidemic model.It describes the computer virus dynamics with vertical transmission via the internet.In these types of dynamics models,the absolute values of the state variables are the fundamental requirement that must be fulfilled by the numerical design.By taking into account this key property,the positivity preserving algorithm is designed to solve the underlying SLBR system.Since,the state variables associated with the phenomenon,represent the computer nodes,so they must take in absolute.Moreover,the continuous system(SLBR)acquires two steady states i.e.,the virus-free state and the virus existence state.The stability of the numerical design,at the equilibrium points,portrays an exceptional aspect about the propagation of the virus.The designed discretization algorithm sustains the stability of both the steady states.The computer simulations also endorse that the proposed discretization algorithm retains all the traits of the continuous SLBR model with spatial content.The stability and consistency of the proposed algorithm are verified,mathematically.All the facts are also ascertained by numerical simulations.展开更多
By using correlation analysis method,regression analysis method and time sequence method,we combine time and space,to establish grain yield spatio-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefect...By using correlation analysis method,regression analysis method and time sequence method,we combine time and space,to establish grain yield spatio-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefecture-level cities.At first,we use the grain yield in prefecture-level cities of Henan in the year 2000 and 2005,to establish regression model,and then taking the grain yield in one year as independent variable,we predict the grain yield in the fifth year afterwards.Taking the dependent variable value as independent variable again,we predict the grain yield at an interval of the same years,and based on this,predict year by year forward until the year we need.The research shows that the grain yield of Henan Province in the year 2015 and 2020 is 59.849 6 and 67.929 3 million t respectively,consistent with the research results of other scholars to some extent.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the following semipaxametric regression model under fixed design： yi = xi′β＋g（xi）＋ei. The estimators of β, g（·） and σ^2 axe obtained by using the least squares and usual nonp...In this paper, we consider the following semipaxametric regression model under fixed design： yi = xi′β＋g（xi）＋ei. The estimators of β, g（·） and σ^2 axe obtained by using the least squares and usual nonparametric weight function method and their strong consistency is proved under the suitable conditions.展开更多
Shallow earthquakes usually show obvious spatio-temporal clustering patterns. In this study, several spatio-temporal point process models are applied to investigate the clustering characteristics of the well-known Tan...Shallow earthquakes usually show obvious spatio-temporal clustering patterns. In this study, several spatio-temporal point process models are applied to investigate the clustering characteristics of the well-known Tangshan sequence based on classical empirical laws and a few assumptions. The relative fit of competing models is compared by Akalke Information Criterion. The spatial clustering pattern is well characterized by the model which gives the best fit to the data. A simulated aftershock sequence is generated by thinning algorithm and compared with the real seismicity.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62073256)the Shaanxi Provincial Science and Technology Department(Grant No.2023-YBGY-342).
文摘To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis.
文摘In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.
文摘Spatio-temporal models are valuable tools for disease mapping and understanding the geographical distribution of diseases and temporal dynamics. Spatio-temporal models have been proven empirically to be very complex and this complexity has led many to oversimply and model the spatial and temporal dependencies independently. Unlike common practice, this study formulated a new spatio-temporal model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies jointly. The spatial and temporal dependencies were dynamically modelled via the matern exponential covariance function. The temporal aspect was captured by the parameters of the exponential with a first-order autoregressive structure. Inferences about the parameters were obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and the spatio-temporal maps were obtained by mapping stable posterior means from the specific location and time from the best model that includes the significant risk factors. The model formulated was fitted to both simulation data and Kenya meningitis incidence data from 2013 to 2019 along with two covariates;Gross County Product (GCP) and average rainfall. The study found that both average rainfall and GCP had a significant positive association with meningitis occurrence. Also, regarding geographical distribution, the spatio-temporal maps showed that meningitis is not evenly distributed across the country as some counties reported a high number of cases compared with other counties.
文摘On basis of test information, the research performed analysis on water production function models of two crops, which indicated that water model of crops in whole growth stage and water model of crops indifferent growth stages have consistency as well as differences, providing references for optimization of irrigation water. Meanwhile, the research analyzed the deficiency of optimization on irrigation water for crops just by Jensen model.
基金Projects(50821003,50405014)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QH1401400,10520705000,10JC1407300)supported by Shanghai Committee of Science and Technology,China+1 种基金Project(NCET-07-0545)supported by Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University,ChinaFord University Research Program,China
文摘To gain a better understanding about texture evolution during rolling process of AZ31 alloy, polycrystalline plasticity model was implemented into the explicit FE package, ABAQUS/Explicit by writing a user subroutine VUMAT. For each individual grain in the polycrystalline aggregate, the rate dependent model was adopted to calculate the plastic shear strain increment in combination with the Voce hardening law to describe the hardening response, the lattice reorientation caused by slip and twinning were calculated separately due to their different mechanisms. The elasto-plastic self consistent （EPSC） model was employed to relate the response of individual grain to the response of the polycrystalline aggregate. Rolling processes of AZ31 sheet and as-cast AZ31 alloy were simulated respectively. The predicted texture distributions are in aualitative a^reement with experimental results.
文摘Consistency of LS estimate of simple linear EV model is studied. It is shown that under some common assumptions of the model, both weak and strong consistency of the estimate are equivalent but it is not so for quadratic-mean consistency.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60874046,60974090)the Ph.D.Programs Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(No.200806110021)the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing of China(CSTS No.2008BB2049)
文摘This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what its neighbors believe that agent is doing is penalized in the cost function of each agent. At each sampling instant the compatibility constraint of each agent is set tighter than the previous sampling instant. Like the traditional approach, the performance cost is utilized as the Lyapunov function to prove closed-looped stability. The closed-loop stability is guaranteed if the weight matrix for deviation in the cost function are sufficiently large. The proposed distributed control scheme is formulated as quadratic programming with quadratic constraints. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.
基金supported by Prince Sultan University through TAS research lab。
文摘This study analyzes the transmission of typhoid fever caused by Salmonella typhi using a mathematical model thathighlights the significance of delay in its effectiveness.Time delays can affect the nature of patterns and slow downthe emergence of patterns in infected population density.The analyzed model is expanded with the equilibriumanalysis,reproduction number,and stability analysis.This study aims to establish and explore the non-standardfinite difference(NSFD)scheme for the typhoid fever virus transmission model with a time delay.In addition,the forward Euler method and Runge-Kutta method of order 4(RK-4)are also applied in the present research.Some significant properties,such as convergence,positivity,boundedness,and consistency,are explored,and theproposed scheme preserves all the mentioned properties.The theoretical validation is conducted on how NSFDoutperforms other methods in emulating key aspects of the continuous model,such as positive solution,stability,and equilibrium about delay.Hence,the above analysis also shows some of the limitations of the conventional finitedifference methods,such as forward Euler and RK-4 in simulating such critical behaviors.This becomes moreapparent when using larger steps.This indicated that NSFD is beneficial in identifying the essential characteristicsof the continuous model with higher accuracy than the traditional approaches.
基金Supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (10761011)Mathematical Tianyuan Fund of National Natural Science Fundation of China(10626048)
文摘Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.
文摘The radon transport test, which is a widely used test case for atmospheric transport models, is carried out to evaluate the tracer advection schemes in the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP-LASG （GAMIL）. Two of the three available schemes in the model are found to be associated with significant biases in the polar regions and in the upper part of the atmosphere, which implies potentially large errors in the simulation of ozone-like tracers. Theoretical analyses show that inconsistency exists between the advection schemes and the discrete continuity equation in the dynamical core of GAMIL and consequently leads to spurious sources and sinks in the tracer transport equation. The impact of this type of inconsistency is demonstrated by idealized tests and identified as the cause of the aforementioned biases. Other potential effects of this inconsistency are also discussed. Results of this study provide some hints for choosing suitable advection schemes in the GAMIL model. At least for the polax-region-concentrated atmospheric components and the closely correlated chemical species, the Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian advection scheme produces more reasonable simulations of the large-scale transport processes without significantly increasing the computational expense.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2006CB701305the National Natural Science Foundation of China under coutract No.40571129the National High-Technology Program of China under contract Nos 2002AA639400,2003AA604040 and 2003AA637030.
文摘Marine information has been increasing quickly. The traditional database technologies have disadvantages in manipulating large amounts of marine information which relates to the position in 3-D with the time. Recently, greater emphasis has been placed on GIS （geographical information system）to deal with the marine information. The GIS has shown great success for terrestrial applications in the last decades, but its use in marine fields has been far more restricted. One of the main reasons is that most of the GIS systems or their data models are designed for land applications. They cannot do well with the nature of the marine environment and for the marine information. And this becomes a fundamental challenge to the traditional GIS and its data structure. This work designed a data model, the raster-based spatio-temporal hierarchical data model （RSHDM）, for the marine information system, or for the knowledge discovery fi＇om spatio-temporal data, which bases itself on the nature of the marine data and overcomes the shortages of the current spatio-temporal models when they are used in the field. As an experiment, the marine fishery data warehouse （FDW） for marine fishery management was set up, which was based on the RSHDM. The experiment proved that the RSHDM can do well with the data and can extract easily the aggregations that the management needs at different levels.
基金Under the auspices of National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2007AA12Z242)
文摘The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation system is in charge of storing incremental data,and the spatio-temporal data model for storing incremental data does affect the efficiency of the response of the data center to the requirements of incremental data from the vehicle terminal.According to the analysis on the shortcomings of several typical spatio-temporal data models used in the data center and based on the base map with overlay model,the reverse map with overlay model (RMOM) was put forward for the data center to make rapid response to incremental data request.RMOM supports the data center to store not only the current complete road network data,but also the overlays of incremental data from the time when each road network changed to the current moment.Moreover,the storage mechanism and index structure of the incremental data were designed,and the implementation algorithm of RMOM was developed.Taking navigational road network in Guangzhou City as an example,the simulation test was conducted to validate the efficiency of RMOM.Results show that the navigation database in the data center can response to the requirements of incremental data by only one query with RMOM,and costs less time.Compared with the base map with overlay model,the data center does not need to temporarily overlay incremental data with RMOM,so time-consuming of response is significantly reduced.RMOM greatly improves the efficiency of response and provides strong support for the real-time situation of navigational road network.
文摘Inclusion of dissipation and memory mechanisms, non-classical elasticity and thermal effects in the currently used plate/shell mathematical models require that we establish if these mathematical models can be derived using the conservation and balance laws of continuum mechanics in conjunction with the corresponding kinematic assumptions. This is referred to as thermodynamic consistency of the mathematical models. Thermodynamic consistency ensures thermodynamic equilibrium during the evolution of the deformation. When the mathematical models are thermodynamically consistent, the second law of thermodynamics facilitates consistent derivations of constitutive theories in the presence of dissipation and memory mechanisms. This is the main motivation for the work presented in this paper. In the currently used mathematical models for plates/shells based on the assumed kinematic relations, energy functional is constructed over the volume consisting of kinetic energy, strain energy and the potential energy of the loads. The Euler’s equations derived from the first variation of the energy functional for arbitrary length when set to zero yield the mathematical model(s) for the deforming plates/shells. Alternatively, principle of virtual work can also be used to derive the same mathematical model(s). For linear elastic reversible deformation physics with small deformation and small strain, these two approaches, based on energy functional and the principle of virtual work, yield the same mathematical models. These mathematical models hold for reversible mechanical deformation. In this paper, we examine whether the currently used plate/shell mathematical models with the corresponding kinematic assumptions can be derived using the conservation and balance laws of classical or non-classical continuum mechanics. The mathematical models based on Kirchhoff hypothesis (classical plate theory, CPT) and first order shear deformation theory (FSDT) that are representative of most mathematical models for plates/shells are investigated in this paper for their thermodynamic consistency. This is followed by the details of a general and higher order thermodynamically consistent plate/shell thermoelastic mathematical model that is free of a priori consideration of kinematic assumptions and remains valid for very thin as well as thick plates/shells with comprehensive nonlinear constitutive theories based on integrity. Model problem studies are presented for small deformation behavior of linear elastic plates in the absence of thermal effects and the results are compared with CPT and FSDT mathematical models.
基金Naitonal Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant No.90815026Foundation of National Seismic Bureau Under Grant No.200808074
文摘Based on the consistency-viscoplastic constitutive model,the static William-Warnke model with three-parameters is modified and a consistency-viscoplastic William-Warnke model with three-parameters is developed that considers the effect of strain rates. Then,the tangent modulus of the consistency viscoplastic model is introduced and an implicit backward Elure iterative algorithm is developed. Comparisons between the numerical simulations and experimental data show that the consistency model properly provides the uniaxial and biaxial dynamic behaviors of concrete. To study the effect of strain rates on the dynamic response of concrete structures,the proposed model is used in the analysis of the dynamic response of a simply-supported beam and the results show that the strain rate has a significant effect on the displacement and stress magnitudes and distributions. Finally,the seismic responses of a 278 m high arch dam are obtained and compared by using the linear elastic model,as well as rate-independent and rate-dependent William-Warnke three-parameter models. The results indicate that the strain rate affects the first principal stresses,and the maximal equivalent viscoplastic strain rate of the arch dam. Numerical calculations and analyses reveal that considering the strain rate is important in the safety assessments of arch dams located in seismically active areas.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFA0603002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.31800358,31700369)+1 种基金Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Fund(No.CX(19)3099)the Foundation of Jiangsu Vocational College of Agriculture and Forestry(No.2019kj014)。
文摘Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon(SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03(1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40(2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of –440 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.
文摘The development of spatio-temporal data model is introduced. According to the soil characteristic of reclamation land, we adopt the base state with amendments model of multi-layer raster to organize the spatio-temporal data, using the combined data structure on linear quadtree and linear octree to code. The advantage of this model is that it can easily obtain the information of certain layer and integratedly analyze the data with other methods. Then, the methods of obtain and analyses are introduced. The method can provide a tool for the research of the soil characteristic change and spatial distribution in reclamation land.
文摘The present work is related to the numerical investigation of the spatio-temporal susceptible-latent-breaking out-recovered(SLBR)epidemic model.It describes the computer virus dynamics with vertical transmission via the internet.In these types of dynamics models,the absolute values of the state variables are the fundamental requirement that must be fulfilled by the numerical design.By taking into account this key property,the positivity preserving algorithm is designed to solve the underlying SLBR system.Since,the state variables associated with the phenomenon,represent the computer nodes,so they must take in absolute.Moreover,the continuous system(SLBR)acquires two steady states i.e.,the virus-free state and the virus existence state.The stability of the numerical design,at the equilibrium points,portrays an exceptional aspect about the propagation of the virus.The designed discretization algorithm sustains the stability of both the steady states.The computer simulations also endorse that the proposed discretization algorithm retains all the traits of the continuous SLBR model with spatial content.The stability and consistency of the proposed algorithm are verified,mathematically.All the facts are also ascertained by numerical simulations.
基金Supported by Philosophical Social Sciences Research Project of Jiangsu Colleges(08SJD7900055)
文摘By using correlation analysis method,regression analysis method and time sequence method,we combine time and space,to establish grain yield spatio-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefecture-level cities.At first,we use the grain yield in prefecture-level cities of Henan in the year 2000 and 2005,to establish regression model,and then taking the grain yield in one year as independent variable,we predict the grain yield in the fifth year afterwards.Taking the dependent variable value as independent variable again,we predict the grain yield at an interval of the same years,and based on this,predict year by year forward until the year we need.The research shows that the grain yield of Henan Province in the year 2015 and 2020 is 59.849 6 and 67.929 3 million t respectively,consistent with the research results of other scholars to some extent.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(10571008)Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Henan(0511013300)Supported by the National Science Foundation of Henan Education Department(2006110012)
文摘In this paper, we consider the following semipaxametric regression model under fixed design： yi = xi′β＋g（xi）＋ei. The estimators of β, g（·） and σ^2 axe obtained by using the least squares and usual nonparametric weight function method and their strong consistency is proved under the suitable conditions.
基金supported by National Natural Science of Foundation of China(No.10871026)
文摘Shallow earthquakes usually show obvious spatio-temporal clustering patterns. In this study, several spatio-temporal point process models are applied to investigate the clustering characteristics of the well-known Tangshan sequence based on classical empirical laws and a few assumptions. The relative fit of competing models is compared by Akalke Information Criterion. The spatial clustering pattern is well characterized by the model which gives the best fit to the data. A simulated aftershock sequence is generated by thinning algorithm and compared with the real seismicity.
