The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)....The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.展开更多
Potential vorticity(PV)streamers are elongated filaments of high PV intrusions that generally exhibit three distinct shapes:ordinarily southwestward,hook,and treble-clef,each with significant influences on weather.The...Potential vorticity(PV)streamers are elongated filaments of high PV intrusions that generally exhibit three distinct shapes:ordinarily southwestward,hook,and treble-clef,each with significant influences on weather.These PV streamers are most frequent over arid and semi-arid Central Asia in the mid–high latitudes.This study applied the Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network algorithm(Mask R-CNN)to PV streamers on the dynamical tropopause during the warm season(May to September)over the years 2000–04 to train a weighted variational model capable of identifying these different shapes.The trained model demonstrated a strong ability to distinguish between the three shapes.A climatological analysis of PV streamers over Central Asia spanning 2000 to 2021 revealed an increasingly deep and pronounced reversal of circulation from ordinary to treble-clef shapes.The treble-clef shape featured a PV tower and distinct cut-off low in the troposphere,but the associated upward motions and precipitation were confined within approximately 1200 km to the east of the PV tower.Although the hook-shape PV streamers were linked to a weaker cut-off low,the extent of upward motion and precipitation was nearly double that of the treble-clef category.In contrast,the ordinary PV streamer was primarily associated with tropopause Rossby wave breaking and exhibited relatively shallow characteristics,which resulted in moderate upward motion and precipitation to 500 km to its east.展开更多
This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,t...This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,the maximum regionalaverage HRR and site-observed HRR,which exhibited sequential development over southern,middle,and northern key regions.These rainfall extremes occurred in an environment where a high-pressure barrier over North China prevented the intrusion of cold air masses from the north while a northward-moving typhoon remnant vortex and its associated low-level jet(LLJ)transported warm and moist airflow from the south.Two distinct echo evolution modes and convection initiation mechanisms are identified for the two types of extreme HRRs.The maximum regional-average HRR occurred when the LLJ arrived to the east of the key regions,while the maximum site-observed HRR occurred when the warmer vortex center influenced the regions.Taking the northern key region as a representation,at the time of the maximum regional-average HRR,slantwise ascent of the airflow along a warm-frontal-like boundary released energy related to symmetrical instability,resulting in stratiform rainfall with weak convective cores.The transport of locally initiated convection over the eastern plain region,where the atmospheric stratification was more potentially unstable,also significantly contributed.When the maximum site-observed HRR occurred,the terrain lifting of warm and moist southeast airflow led to intense convection over the mountain foothills.Overall,the passage of the warm-core typhoon remnant vortex and interaction with Taihang Mountains determined the timing and location of extreme HRRs across the key regions.展开更多
The connection between rainfall over topographic regions and their downstream areas represents a phenomenon of great concern in atmospheric research.Focusing on the rainfall events of the past two decades,we analyzed ...The connection between rainfall over topographic regions and their downstream areas represents a phenomenon of great concern in atmospheric research.Focusing on the rainfall events of the past two decades,we analyzed the impact of rainfall over the Northeastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau(NSTP)on rainfall in downstream areas.We discovered that rainfall followed two propagation routes,guided by two modes related to the three-dimensional circulation structure.In the first mode,dominated by cold(warm)anomalies along the west(east)direction,rainfall over the NSTP was concentrated between an upstream cyclonic and a downstream anti-cyclonic anomalous circulation(an upstream trough and a downstream ridge).This pattern was accompanied by upper-level divergence,low-level convergence,a deep moist layer,and a vertical updraft.As a consequence of the eastward movement of the trough-ridge system associated with the coldwarm anomalies,the rainfall over the NSTP moved eastward along 37°-40°N,reaching North China after about 36 h.In the second mode,the circulation structure was also dominated by cold-warm anomalies but rotated clockwise,introducing cold anomalies to the northeast and warm anomalies to the east of the plateau.Following the southeastward movement of the circulation structure,rainfall concentrated upstream of the anti-cyclonic circulation around the warm center before moving southeastward to the Sichuan Basin along the eastern edge of the plateau after 30-36 h.The findings of this study could broaden the understanding of rainfall-related teleconnection between two distant regions and offer helpful guidance for identifying early signals of rainfall disasters over the Chinese mainland.展开更多
Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high tem...Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal resolution.Radiance measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS),obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019),were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric moisture.This work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO),and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal resolution.The standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min resolution.Experiments showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds,and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon areas.In typhoon prediction,assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track,and less influence on the maximum wind speed.Assimilation of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different times.Assimilation of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by CMAMESO.Results indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.展开更多
With the rapid development of the world economy,complex air pollution has increasingly become a serious threat;for example,with haze events occurring frequently in various regions of the globe.Recent evidence has indi...With the rapid development of the world economy,complex air pollution has increasingly become a serious threat;for example,with haze events occurring frequently in various regions of the globe.Recent evidence has indicated that secondary aerosols play an important role in haze formation,and that heterogeneous processes are among the main forces driving their explosive growth.In this regard,this paper reviews recent advances in the understanding of the impact of heterogeneous processes on haze chemistry,including the impact on NO_(2)chemistry,marine aerosols,and the hygroscopicity and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols.It is distinguished from past reviews on this topic by focusing mainly on new insights from the past five years.We summarize the main findings of the impacts of heterogeneous processes on NO_(2)chemistry,marine aerosols,and the physicochemical properties of atmospheric aerosols,and propose several future research directions.展开更多
At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standar...At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.展开更多
Beryllium-7 （^7Be） and lead-210 （^210pb） activities were measured from October 2002 to January 2004 at Waliguan Observatory （WO： 36.287°N, 100.898°E, 3816 m a.s.l （above sea level） in northwest China...Beryllium-7 （^7Be） and lead-210 （^210pb） activities were measured from October 2002 to January 2004 at Waliguan Observatory （WO： 36.287°N, 100.898°E, 3816 m a.s.l （above sea level） in northwest China. ^7Be and ^210pb activities are high with overall averages of 14.74-3.5 mBq m^-3 and 1.8±0.8 mBq m^-3 respectively. For both 7Be and ^210pb, there are significant short-term and seasonal variations with a commonly low value in summer （May-September） and a monthly maximum in April （for ^7Be） and in December （for ^210pb）. The ratio of ^7Be/^210pb showed a broad maximum extending from April to July, coinciding with a seasonal peak in surface ozone （O3）. The seasonal cycles of ^7Be and ^210pb activities were greatly influenced by precipitation and thermal dynamical conditions over the boundary layer, especially for ^210Pb. The vertical mixing process between the boundary layer and the aloft air modulates the variations of ^7Be and ^210pb at WO in summer. It is indicated that air mass had longer residence time and originated from higher altitudes at WO in the spring-summer time and the winter in 2003. During an event with extremely high weeklyaveraged ^7Be concentration （24.8 mBq m^-3） together with high O3 levels and low water mixing ratio, we found that air masses had been convectively transported a long distance to WO from high latitude source regions in central Asia, where significant subsiding motions were observed. In another case with the extreme ^210pb activity of 5.7 mBq m^-3 high CO2 level and specific humidity （in winter）, air masses had come from south China and north Indian regions where 222Rn activities were high. This study, using ^7Be and ^210pb as atmospheric tracers, has revealed that complex interactions of convective mixing from the upper troposphere and long-range transports exist at WO.展开更多
The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE s...The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE surface meteorological and climate studies since 2002. A network of seven Automatic Weather Stations has been deployed along this section, including at Dome-A itself, and some of these have now provided nearly-hourly data for over a decade. Atmospheric boundary layer turbulence and radiation observations have been made over the near-coastal ice sheet inland of Zhongshan and surface turbulence measurements using an ultrasonic anemometer system have also been made in the deep interior of the ice sheet. Summer GPS radiosonde soundings of the atmospheric boundary layer have been made at Kunlun Station, near Dome-A. In this paper these observations are combined to provide a comprehensive overview of the meteorological regime of this region of the ice sheet, its climate variability, and as a reference for future study of climate change. This includes investigation of the variation of surface climate features with elevation and distance from the coast, the height and structure of the boundary layer over the ice sheet, and seasonal and regional changes in ice/snow-air interactions, including turbulent and radiative energy fluxes. The air temperature and snow temperature between the coastal Zhongshan and Dome-A on the inland plateau have not changed significantly in the past decade compared with the inter-annual variability.展开更多
Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring ...Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring to low tolerances to flood, drought and cold, paprika pepper often suffers from one or several disasters during its growing period,especially under tropical climate. Paprika pepper in Hainan, as a typical region of tropical climate in China, sustains flood, chilling and drought disaster risks induced by varied weather systems. This study was to develop and employ appropriate indices to assess hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and prevention capability for major disasters during paprika pepper growth period, using long-term meteorological data from 1998 to 2011, actual disasters record from 1999 to 2011, production and socioeconomic statistics from 2002 to 2011 at 18 weather stations. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method, the combined weight was given to each disaster factor, thus an integrated disaster risk assessment model was developed and applied at regional level. High flood hazard mainly occurred in eastern Hainan, high chilling hazard in north and central mountain areas, and high drought hazard in the western part of Hainan. Drought and chilling sensitivity had a similar spatial distribution which decreased from central to coastal regions while flood sensitivity was the opposite. High vulnerability of the disasters mainly occurred in central regions,similar to low prevention capability. Eastern Hainan suffered from high integrated damage risk. The predicted damage occurrence showed a good agreement with the occurrence of actual disasters. We concluded that an integrated damage risk assessment model could provide a new tool to assess major meteorological disasters and help farmers and policy makers to alleviate the risks of major meteorological disasters for paprika pepper, which seems also suitable for other crops.展开更多
The spatial distribution of snow cover on the central Arctic sea ice is investigated here based on the observations made during the Third Chinese Arctic Expedition. Six types of snow were observed during the expeditio...The spatial distribution of snow cover on the central Arctic sea ice is investigated here based on the observations made during the Third Chinese Arctic Expedition. Six types of snow were observed during the expedition： new/recent snow, melt-fi＇eeze crust, icy layer, depth hoar, coarse-grained, and chains of depth hoar. Across most measurement areas, the snow surface was covered by a melt-freeze crust 2-3 cm thick, which was produced by alternate strong solar radiation and the sharp temperature decrease over the summer Arctic Ocean. There was an intermittent layer of snow and ice at the base of the snow pack. The mean bulk density of the snow was 304.01~29.00 kg/m3 along the expedition line, and the surface values were generally smaller than those of the sub- surface, confirming the principle of snow densification. In addition, the thicknesses and water equivalents of the new/recent and total-layer snow showed a decreasing trend with latitude, suggesting that the amount of snow cover and its spatial variations were mainly determined by precipitation. Snow temperature also presented significant variations in the vertical profile, and ablation and evaporation were not the primary factors in the snow assessment in late summer. The mean temperature of the surface snow was -2.01±0.96℃, which was much higher than that observed in the interface of snow and sea ice.展开更多
To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index （MHCI） was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical...To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index （MHCI） was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that： （1） in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; （2） compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; （3） time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and （4） verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.展开更多
During the 2nd Chinese Arctic Research Expedition, 20 pair of atmospheric samples were collected on the cruising route from Shanghai to Arctic Ocean using NOAA/ESRL flask sampling unit. Mean concentration of CO2 and C...During the 2nd Chinese Arctic Research Expedition, 20 pair of atmospheric samples were collected on the cruising route from Shanghai to Arctic Ocean using NOAA/ESRL flask sampling unit. Mean concentration of CO2 and CH4 were analyzed in different latitude zone from 30°N to 80°N and the distribution characteristics were studied. Mean concentration of CO2 decrease toward high latitude which indicates the uptake effect of CO2 by ocean. Coinciding with the CH4 global distribution character, mean CH4 concentration increase from 45°N to the North Pole region. Regional or local air mass may influence the greenhouse gas concentrations near seashore in the middle latitude （30°N-45°N）.展开更多
CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate ...CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events.In 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by 2060.This commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)systems.The MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in 2019.However,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of development.Here,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)model.Our China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange.Atmospheric CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to 0.The total anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province in 2019 from the assimilated inversions were approximately 28.6%(17%-38%)higher than the mean of five emission inventories using the bottomup method,showing that the top-down CCMVS-R system can obtain more comprehensive information on anthropogenic carbon emissions.展开更多
The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).Whil...The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.展开更多
In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropi...In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over China.The peak months for TRP are July and August.The four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast area.The typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 km.Most of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the TC.The south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to TRP.TRP has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate TRP.From the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in China' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.展开更多
Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-Apr...Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.展开更多
Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023,coinciding with the WINFLY(winter fly-in)period of mid to late August into September 2023,meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Ai...Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023,coinciding with the WINFLY(winter fly-in)period of mid to late August into September 2023,meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Airfield were adversely impacted.Specifically,with temperatures below−50℃,safe flight operation was not possible because of the risk of failing hydraulics and fuel turning to gel onboard the aircraft.The cold temperatures were measured across a broad area of the Antarctic,from East Antarctica toward the Ross Ice Shelf,and stretching across West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula.A review of automatic weather station measurements and staffed station observations revealed a series of sites recording new record low temperatures.Four separate cold phases were identified,each a few days in duration and occurring from mid-July to the end of August 2023.A brief analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies shows how the mid-tropospheric atmospheric environment evolves in relation to these extreme cold temperatures.The monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies show strong negative anomalies in August.Examination of composite geopotential height anomalies during each of the four cold phases suggests various factors leading to cold temperatures,including both southerly off-content flow and calm atmospheric conditions.Understanding the atmospheric environment that leads to such extreme cold temperatures can improve prediction of such events and benefit Antarctic operations and the study of Antarctic meteorology and climatology.展开更多
Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers f...Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.展开更多
This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method ...This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers U2242205 and 41830969]the S&T Development Fund of CAMS [grant number 2023KJ036]the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS [grant number 2023Z018]。
文摘The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275063 and U20A2097)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2023LASW-B29)。
文摘Potential vorticity(PV)streamers are elongated filaments of high PV intrusions that generally exhibit three distinct shapes:ordinarily southwestward,hook,and treble-clef,each with significant influences on weather.These PV streamers are most frequent over arid and semi-arid Central Asia in the mid–high latitudes.This study applied the Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network algorithm(Mask R-CNN)to PV streamers on the dynamical tropopause during the warm season(May to September)over the years 2000–04 to train a weighted variational model capable of identifying these different shapes.The trained model demonstrated a strong ability to distinguish between the three shapes.A climatological analysis of PV streamers over Central Asia spanning 2000 to 2021 revealed an increasingly deep and pronounced reversal of circulation from ordinary to treble-clef shapes.The treble-clef shape featured a PV tower and distinct cut-off low in the troposphere,but the associated upward motions and precipitation were confined within approximately 1200 km to the east of the PV tower.Although the hook-shape PV streamers were linked to a weaker cut-off low,the extent of upward motion and precipitation was nearly double that of the treble-clef category.In contrast,the ordinary PV streamer was primarily associated with tropopause Rossby wave breaking and exhibited relatively shallow characteristics,which resulted in moderate upward motion and precipitation to 500 km to its east.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3003903)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(Grant No.8222079)and of China(Grant No.42475014,U2442204)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2023Z001).
文摘This study investigates extreme rainfall episodes along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in North China from 30 July to 1 August 2023.It focuses on two types of extreme hourly rainfall rates(HRRs),i.e.,the maximum regionalaverage HRR and site-observed HRR,which exhibited sequential development over southern,middle,and northern key regions.These rainfall extremes occurred in an environment where a high-pressure barrier over North China prevented the intrusion of cold air masses from the north while a northward-moving typhoon remnant vortex and its associated low-level jet(LLJ)transported warm and moist airflow from the south.Two distinct echo evolution modes and convection initiation mechanisms are identified for the two types of extreme HRRs.The maximum regional-average HRR occurred when the LLJ arrived to the east of the key regions,while the maximum site-observed HRR occurred when the warmer vortex center influenced the regions.Taking the northern key region as a representation,at the time of the maximum regional-average HRR,slantwise ascent of the airflow along a warm-frontal-like boundary released energy related to symmetrical instability,resulting in stratiform rainfall with weak convective cores.The transport of locally initiated convection over the eastern plain region,where the atmospheric stratification was more potentially unstable,also significantly contributed.When the maximum site-observed HRR occurred,the terrain lifting of warm and moist southeast airflow led to intense convection over the mountain foothills.Overall,the passage of the warm-core typhoon remnant vortex and interaction with Taihang Mountains determined the timing and location of extreme HRRs across the key regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142204 and 42475013)the Beijing Nova Program(Z211100002121100)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3007504)the Science&Technology Development Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)(2022KJ007)。
文摘The connection between rainfall over topographic regions and their downstream areas represents a phenomenon of great concern in atmospheric research.Focusing on the rainfall events of the past two decades,we analyzed the impact of rainfall over the Northeastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau(NSTP)on rainfall in downstream areas.We discovered that rainfall followed two propagation routes,guided by two modes related to the three-dimensional circulation structure.In the first mode,dominated by cold(warm)anomalies along the west(east)direction,rainfall over the NSTP was concentrated between an upstream cyclonic and a downstream anti-cyclonic anomalous circulation(an upstream trough and a downstream ridge).This pattern was accompanied by upper-level divergence,low-level convergence,a deep moist layer,and a vertical updraft.As a consequence of the eastward movement of the trough-ridge system associated with the coldwarm anomalies,the rainfall over the NSTP moved eastward along 37°-40°N,reaching North China after about 36 h.In the second mode,the circulation structure was also dominated by cold-warm anomalies but rotated clockwise,introducing cold anomalies to the northeast and warm anomalies to the east of the plateau.Following the southeastward movement of the circulation structure,rainfall concentrated upstream of the anti-cyclonic circulation around the warm center before moving southeastward to the Sichuan Basin along the eastern edge of the plateau after 30-36 h.The findings of this study could broaden the understanding of rainfall-related teleconnection between two distant regions and offer helpful guidance for identifying early signals of rainfall disasters over the Chinese mainland.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142201)the Fengyun Application Pion eering Project(Grant No.FY-APP-ZX-2022.01)。
文摘Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal resolution.Radiance measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS),obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019),were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric moisture.This work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-MESO),and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal resolution.The standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min resolution.Experiments showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds,and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon areas.In typhoon prediction,assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track,and less influence on the maximum wind speed.Assimilation of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different times.Assimilation of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by CMAMESO.Results indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3701000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42130606 and 41931287)+1 种基金the Beijing National Laboratory for Molecular Sciences(BNLMS-CXXM-202011)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.Y2021013).
文摘With the rapid development of the world economy,complex air pollution has increasingly become a serious threat;for example,with haze events occurring frequently in various regions of the globe.Recent evidence has indicated that secondary aerosols play an important role in haze formation,and that heterogeneous processes are among the main forces driving their explosive growth.In this regard,this paper reviews recent advances in the understanding of the impact of heterogeneous processes on haze chemistry,including the impact on NO_(2)chemistry,marine aerosols,and the hygroscopicity and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols.It is distinguished from past reviews on this topic by focusing mainly on new insights from the past five years.We summarize the main findings of the impacts of heterogeneous processes on NO_(2)chemistry,marine aerosols,and the physicochemical properties of atmospheric aerosols,and propose several future research directions.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX22_1136)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)+2 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202202)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.
基金the National Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40175032 , 40575013）.
文摘Beryllium-7 （^7Be） and lead-210 （^210pb） activities were measured from October 2002 to January 2004 at Waliguan Observatory （WO： 36.287°N, 100.898°E, 3816 m a.s.l （above sea level） in northwest China. ^7Be and ^210pb activities are high with overall averages of 14.74-3.5 mBq m^-3 and 1.8±0.8 mBq m^-3 respectively. For both 7Be and ^210pb, there are significant short-term and seasonal variations with a commonly low value in summer （May-September） and a monthly maximum in April （for ^7Be） and in December （for ^210pb）. The ratio of ^7Be/^210pb showed a broad maximum extending from April to July, coinciding with a seasonal peak in surface ozone （O3）. The seasonal cycles of ^7Be and ^210pb activities were greatly influenced by precipitation and thermal dynamical conditions over the boundary layer, especially for ^210Pb. The vertical mixing process between the boundary layer and the aloft air modulates the variations of ^7Be and ^210pb at WO in summer. It is indicated that air mass had longer residence time and originated from higher altitudes at WO in the spring-summer time and the winter in 2003. During an event with extremely high weeklyaveraged ^7Be concentration （24.8 mBq m^-3） together with high O3 levels and low water mixing ratio, we found that air masses had been convectively transported a long distance to WO from high latitude source regions in central Asia, where significant subsiding motions were observed. In another case with the extreme ^210pb activity of 5.7 mBq m^-3 high CO2 level and specific humidity （in winter）, air masses had come from south China and north Indian regions where 222Rn activities were high. This study, using ^7Be and ^210pb as atmospheric tracers, has revealed that complex interactions of convective mixing from the upper troposphere and long-range transports exist at WO.
基金supported by the Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment Program(Grant no.CHINARE 2015-2016)supported by the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centres Program through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
文摘The 1228 km over-snow traverse route between the Chinese Zhongshan Station, on the coast of Prydz Bay, and Dome-A, at 4091 m elevation the highest point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, has been the focus of CHINARE surface meteorological and climate studies since 2002. A network of seven Automatic Weather Stations has been deployed along this section, including at Dome-A itself, and some of these have now provided nearly-hourly data for over a decade. Atmospheric boundary layer turbulence and radiation observations have been made over the near-coastal ice sheet inland of Zhongshan and surface turbulence measurements using an ultrasonic anemometer system have also been made in the deep interior of the ice sheet. Summer GPS radiosonde soundings of the atmospheric boundary layer have been made at Kunlun Station, near Dome-A. In this paper these observations are combined to provide a comprehensive overview of the meteorological regime of this region of the ice sheet, its climate variability, and as a reference for future study of climate change. This includes investigation of the variation of surface climate features with elevation and distance from the coast, the height and structure of the boundary layer over the ice sheet, and seasonal and regional changes in ice/snow-air interactions, including turbulent and radiative energy fluxes. The air temperature and snow temperature between the coastal Zhongshan and Dome-A on the inland plateau have not changed significantly in the past decade compared with the inter-annual variability.
基金Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China(GYHY201206019)Basic Scientific Research Fund of CAMS(2015Y003)National Science and Technology Basic Project of China(2007FY120100)
文摘Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring to low tolerances to flood, drought and cold, paprika pepper often suffers from one or several disasters during its growing period,especially under tropical climate. Paprika pepper in Hainan, as a typical region of tropical climate in China, sustains flood, chilling and drought disaster risks induced by varied weather systems. This study was to develop and employ appropriate indices to assess hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and prevention capability for major disasters during paprika pepper growth period, using long-term meteorological data from 1998 to 2011, actual disasters record from 1999 to 2011, production and socioeconomic statistics from 2002 to 2011 at 18 weather stations. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method, the combined weight was given to each disaster factor, thus an integrated disaster risk assessment model was developed and applied at regional level. High flood hazard mainly occurred in eastern Hainan, high chilling hazard in north and central mountain areas, and high drought hazard in the western part of Hainan. Drought and chilling sensitivity had a similar spatial distribution which decreased from central to coastal regions while flood sensitivity was the opposite. High vulnerability of the disasters mainly occurred in central regions,similar to low prevention capability. Eastern Hainan suffered from high integrated damage risk. The predicted damage occurrence showed a good agreement with the occurrence of actual disasters. We concluded that an integrated damage risk assessment model could provide a new tool to assess major meteorological disasters and help farmers and policy makers to alleviate the risks of major meteorological disasters for paprika pepper, which seems also suitable for other crops.
基金funded by the Opening Founding of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences (SKLCS 09-07)the Special Polar Program of the Ministry of Finance (CHINARE2012-02-02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (41121001)
文摘The spatial distribution of snow cover on the central Arctic sea ice is investigated here based on the observations made during the Third Chinese Arctic Expedition. Six types of snow were observed during the expedition： new/recent snow, melt-fi＇eeze crust, icy layer, depth hoar, coarse-grained, and chains of depth hoar. Across most measurement areas, the snow surface was covered by a melt-freeze crust 2-3 cm thick, which was produced by alternate strong solar radiation and the sharp temperature decrease over the summer Arctic Ocean. There was an intermittent layer of snow and ice at the base of the snow pack. The mean bulk density of the snow was 304.01~29.00 kg/m3 along the expedition line, and the surface values were generally smaller than those of the sub- surface, confirming the principle of snow densification. In addition, the thicknesses and water equivalents of the new/recent and total-layer snow showed a decreasing trend with latitude, suggesting that the amount of snow cover and its spatial variations were mainly determined by precipitation. Snow temperature also presented significant variations in the vertical profile, and ablation and evaporation were not the primary factors in the snow assessment in late summer. The mean temperature of the surface snow was -2.01±0.96℃, which was much higher than that observed in the interface of snow and sea ice.
基金supported by project GYHY201106050the National"973"Program of China under Grant No.2011CB403404,and Project No.2009Y002
文摘To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index （MHCI） was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that： （1） in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; （2） compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; （3） time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and （4） verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.
文摘During the 2nd Chinese Arctic Research Expedition, 20 pair of atmospheric samples were collected on the cruising route from Shanghai to Arctic Ocean using NOAA/ESRL flask sampling unit. Mean concentration of CO2 and CH4 were analyzed in different latitude zone from 30°N to 80°N and the distribution characteristics were studied. Mean concentration of CO2 decrease toward high latitude which indicates the uptake effect of CO2 by ocean. Coinciding with the CH4 global distribution character, mean CH4 concentration increase from 45°N to the North Pole region. Regional or local air mass may influence the greenhouse gas concentrations near seashore in the middle latitude （30°N-45°N）.
基金supported by the General Project of Top-Design of Multi-Scale Nature-Social ModelsData Support and Decision Support System for NSFC Carbon Neutrality Major Project(42341202)the Basic Scientific Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2021Z014)。
文摘CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s atmosphere.Since the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events.In 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by 2060.This commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)systems.The MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in 2019.However,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of development.Here,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)model.Our China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange.Atmospheric CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to 0.The total anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province in 2019 from the assimilated inversions were approximately 28.6%(17%-38%)higher than the mean of five emission inventories using the bottomup method,showing that the top-down CCMVS-R system can obtain more comprehensive information on anthropogenic carbon emissions.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFE0106500)Jiangsu Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20200040)。
文摘The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (No.KYCX22_1136)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China (No.42275037)+2 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS (No.2023Z016)the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province (No.SCSF202202)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over China.The peak months for TRP are July and August.The four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast area.The typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 km.Most of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the TC.The south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to TRP.TRP has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate TRP.From the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in China' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.
基金jointly funded by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42130605)the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72293604)+5 种基金the Youth Innovative Talents Program of Guangdong Colleges and Universities(No.2022KQNCX026)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong(No.ZR2022MD038)the Project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University(No.230419106)the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42130605)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42275001,42276019,42205014,and 42275017)the Guangdong Ocean University Ph.D.Scientific Research Program(No.R19045).
文摘Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.
基金support from the US National Science Foundation(Grant Nos.1924730,2301362,and 2205398).
文摘Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023,coinciding with the WINFLY(winter fly-in)period of mid to late August into September 2023,meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Airfield were adversely impacted.Specifically,with temperatures below−50℃,safe flight operation was not possible because of the risk of failing hydraulics and fuel turning to gel onboard the aircraft.The cold temperatures were measured across a broad area of the Antarctic,from East Antarctica toward the Ross Ice Shelf,and stretching across West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula.A review of automatic weather station measurements and staffed station observations revealed a series of sites recording new record low temperatures.Four separate cold phases were identified,each a few days in duration and occurring from mid-July to the end of August 2023.A brief analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies shows how the mid-tropospheric atmospheric environment evolves in relation to these extreme cold temperatures.The monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies show strong negative anomalies in August.Examination of composite geopotential height anomalies during each of the four cold phases suggests various factors leading to cold temperatures,including both southerly off-content flow and calm atmospheric conditions.Understanding the atmospheric environment that leads to such extreme cold temperatures can improve prediction of such events and benefit Antarctic operations and the study of Antarctic meteorology and climatology.
基金Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Provincial Water Resources Department (2022-01)Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022A1515011870)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team of Tropical Meteorology (CMA2023ZD08)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2022LASW-B18)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3000802)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875059)The Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2021LASW-A04)。
文摘This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.
