Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily ...Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.展开更多
In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided ...In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.展开更多
Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly...Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.展开更多
Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely imp...Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism framework.Based on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)scenario.The results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.The direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.展开更多
The Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes held its 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Japan,19–21 March,2017....The Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes held its 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Japan,19–21 March,2017.The Global Alliance seeks to contribute to enhancing disaster risk reduction(DRR) and disaster resilience through the collaboration of research organizations around the world.The summit aim was to expand the platform for bridging science and policy making by evaluating the evidence base needed to meet the expected outcomes and actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster RiskReduction 2015–2030 and its Science and Technology Roadmap.The summit reflected the international nature of collaborative research and action.A pre-conference questionnaire filled out by Global Alliance members identified323 research projects that are indicative of current research.These were categorized to support seven parallel discussion sessions related to the Sendai Framework priorities for action.Four discussion sessions focused on research that aims to deepen the understanding of disaster risks.Three cross-cutting sessions focused on research that is aimed at the priorities for action on governance,resilience,and recovery.Discussion summaries were presentedin plenary sessions in support of outcomes for widely enhancing the science and policy of DRR.展开更多
The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main fo...The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main focus area is the Arctic-boreal regions and China.The models used in PEEX-MP cover several main components of the Earth’s system,such as the atmosphere,hydrosphere,pedosphere and biosphere,and resolve the physicalchemicalbiological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and resolutions.This paper introduces and discusses PEEX MP multi-scale modelling concept for the Earth system,online integrated,forward/inverse,and socioeconomical modelling,and other approaches with a particular focus on applications in the PEEX geographical domain.The employed high-performance com-puting facilities,capabilities,and PEEX dataflow for modelling results are described.Several virtual research platforms(PEEXView,Virtual Research Environment,Web-based Atlas)for handling PEEX modelling and observational results are introduced.The over-all approach allows us to understand better physical-chemicalbiological processes,Earth’s system interactions and feedbacks and to provide valuable information for assessment studies on evaluating risks,impact,consequences,etc.for population,envir-onment and climate in the PEEX domain.This work was also one of the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich,who passed away on 15 February 2021.Since the finalization took time,the paper was actually submitted in 2023 and we could not argue that the final paper text was agreed with him.展开更多
The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritiz...The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritize the water cycle alongside reducing carbon emissions.The authors highlight how human activities-agriculture,urbanization,and industrialization-have degraded 75%of the earth’s land,severely disrupting natural water systems.This degradation diminishes the planet’s capacity to regulate temperature through water vapor,cloud formation,and the hydrological cycle,further accelerating climate instability.展开更多
Global land cover(LC)maps have been widely employed as the base layer for a number of applications including climate change,food security,water quality,biodiversity,change detection,and environmental planning.Due to t...Global land cover(LC)maps have been widely employed as the base layer for a number of applications including climate change,food security,water quality,biodiversity,change detection,and environmental planning.Due to the importance of LC,there is a pressing need to increase the temporal and spatial resolution of global LC maps.A recent advance in this direction has been the GlobeLand30 dataset derived from Landsat imagery,which has been developed by the National Geomatics Center of China(NGCC).Although overall accuracy is greater than 80%,the NGCC would like help in assessing the accuracy of the product in different regions of the world.To assist in this process,this study compares the GlobeLand30 product with existing public and online datasets,that is,CORINE,Urban Atlas(UA),OpenStreetMap,and ATKIS for Germany in order to assess overall and per class agreement.The results of the analysis reveal high agreement of up to 92%between these datasets and GlobeLand30 but that large disagreements for certain classes are evident,in particular wetlands.However,overall,GlobeLand30 is shown to be a useful product for characterizing LC in Germany,and paves the way for further regional and national validation efforts.展开更多
Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone South...Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management.The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.展开更多
Systemic risk research is gaining traction across diverse disciplinary research communities, but has as yet not been strongly linked to traditional, well-established risk analysis research. This is due in part to the ...Systemic risk research is gaining traction across diverse disciplinary research communities, but has as yet not been strongly linked to traditional, well-established risk analysis research. This is due in part to the fact that systemic risk research focuses on the connection of elements within a system, while risk analysis research focuses more on individual risk to single elements. We therefore investigate how current systemic risk research can be related to traditional risk analysis approaches from a conceptual as well as an empirical point of view. Based on Sklar's Theorem, which provides a one-to-one relationship between multivariate distributions and copulas, we suggest a reframing of the concept of copulas based on a network perspective. This provides a promising way forward for integrating individual risk(in the form of probability distributions) and systemic risk(in the form of copulasdescribing the dependencies among such distributions)across research domains. Copulas can link continuous node states, characterizing individual risks, with a gradual dependency of the coupling strength between nodes on their states, characterizing systemic risk. When copulas are used for describing such refined coupling between nodes,they can provide a more accurate quantification of a system's network structure. This enables more realistic systemic risk assessments, and is especially useful when extreme events(that occur at low probabilities, but have high impacts) affect a system's nodes. In this way, copulas can be informative in measuring and quantifying changes in systemic risk and therefore be helpful in its management. We discuss the advantages and limitations of copulas for integrative risk analyses from the perspectives of modeling, measurement, and management.展开更多
Raw observations(carrier-phase and code observations)from the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)can now be accessed from Android mobile phones(Version 7.0 onwards).This paves the way for GNSS data to be utilized...Raw observations(carrier-phase and code observations)from the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)can now be accessed from Android mobile phones(Version 7.0 onwards).This paves the way for GNSS data to be utilized for low-cost precise positioning or in ionospheric or tropospheric applications.This paper presents results from data collection campaigns using the CAMALIOT mobile app.In the frst campaign,116.3 billion measurements from 11,828 mobile devices were collected from all continents.Although participation decreased during the second campaign,data are still being collected globally.In this contribution,we demonstrate the potential of volunteered geographic information(VGl)from mobile phones to fill data gaps in geodetic station networks that collect GNSS data,e.g.in Brazil,but also how the data can provide a denser set of observations than current networks in countries across Europe.We also show that mobile phones capable of dual-frequency reception,which is an emerging technology that can provide a richer source of GNSS data,are contributing in a substantial way.Finally,we present the results from a survey of participants to indicate that participation is diverse in terms of backgrounds and geography,where the dominant motivation for participation is to contribute to scientific research.展开更多
Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climat...Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security.In this study,based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways(RCPs) in 2011–2040(2020 s),2041–2070(2050 s) and 2071–2100(2080 s),we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020 s,2050 s,and 2080 s,respectively.The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin.Our simulations revealed that:(1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time;(2) in the middle of this century(2050 s),total rapeseed production would increase significantly;(3) the average production potential increase in the 2050 s for the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939,1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively;(4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi,central and eastern Hubei,northern Hunan,central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.展开更多
Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and ...Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951504,2012CB95590004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41171093)the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAC19B01)
文摘Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
基金This work was supported by the Science and Technology Foundation of GEIGC(101662227)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018 YFB0905000).
文摘In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.
基金funded by the undergraduate student research training program of the Ministry of Education, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos. 41771495, 41830641, and 41988101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program Grant 2019QZKK0208+1 种基金funded by the European Research Council Synergy project “Imbalance-P ” (Grant No. ERC-2013-Sy G-610028)the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation project “CONSTRAIN” (Grant No. 820829)
文摘Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.
基金supported by the GEIGC Science and Technology Project in the framework of“Research on Comprehensive Path Evaluation Methods and Practical Models for the Synergetic Development of Global Energy,Atmospheric Environment and Human Health”(grant No.20210302007).
文摘Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism framework.Based on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)scenario.The results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.The direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.
文摘The Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes held its 3rd Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Japan,19–21 March,2017.The Global Alliance seeks to contribute to enhancing disaster risk reduction(DRR) and disaster resilience through the collaboration of research organizations around the world.The summit aim was to expand the platform for bridging science and policy making by evaluating the evidence base needed to meet the expected outcomes and actions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster RiskReduction 2015–2030 and its Science and Technology Roadmap.The summit reflected the international nature of collaborative research and action.A pre-conference questionnaire filled out by Global Alliance members identified323 research projects that are indicative of current research.These were categorized to support seven parallel discussion sessions related to the Sendai Framework priorities for action.Four discussion sessions focused on research that aims to deepen the understanding of disaster risks.Three cross-cutting sessions focused on research that is aimed at the priorities for action on governance,resilience,and recovery.Discussion summaries were presentedin plenary sessions in support of outcomes for widely enhancing the science and policy of DRR.
基金the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich(1936-2021)The financial support was/is provided through multiple projects related to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment(PEEX)programme including Academy of Finland projects-ClimEco(grant#314798/799)+6 种基金ACCC(grant#337549)HEATCOST(grant#334798)European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme projects-iCUPE under ERA-PLANET(grant#689443),INTAROS(grant#727890),EXHAUSTION(grant#820655),CRiceS(grant#101003826),RI-URBANS(grant#101036245)Horizon Europe project FOCI(grant#101056783)Erasmus+Programme projects-ECOIMPACT(grant#561975-EPP-1-2015-1-FI-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP),ClimEd(grant#619285-EPP-1-2020-1-FIEPPKA2-CBHE-JP)The Norwegian Research Council INTPART educational and networking project(322317/H30):URban Sustainability in Action:Multi-disciplinary Approach through Jointly Organized Research schoolsand the EEA project(Contract No.2020TO01000219):Turbulent-resolving urban modelling of air quality and thermal comfort(TURBAN).
文摘The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform(PEEX-MP)is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme.The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless envir-onmental prediction.The main focus area is the Arctic-boreal regions and China.The models used in PEEX-MP cover several main components of the Earth’s system,such as the atmosphere,hydrosphere,pedosphere and biosphere,and resolve the physicalchemicalbiological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and resolutions.This paper introduces and discusses PEEX MP multi-scale modelling concept for the Earth system,online integrated,forward/inverse,and socioeconomical modelling,and other approaches with a particular focus on applications in the PEEX geographical domain.The employed high-performance com-puting facilities,capabilities,and PEEX dataflow for modelling results are described.Several virtual research platforms(PEEXView,Virtual Research Environment,Web-based Atlas)for handling PEEX modelling and observational results are introduced.The over-all approach allows us to understand better physical-chemicalbiological processes,Earth’s system interactions and feedbacks and to provide valuable information for assessment studies on evaluating risks,impact,consequences,etc.for population,envir-onment and climate in the PEEX domain.This work was also one of the last projects of Prof.Sergej Zilitinkevich,who passed away on 15 February 2021.Since the finalization took time,the paper was actually submitted in 2023 and we could not argue that the final paper text was agreed with him.
文摘The recent Nature Water article,“To Solve Climate Change,We Need to Restore Our Sponge Planet,”by Kongjian Yu,Erica Gies,and Warren W.Wood[1],makes a compelling case for recalibrating climate strategies to prioritize the water cycle alongside reducing carbon emissions.The authors highlight how human activities-agriculture,urbanization,and industrialization-have degraded 75%of the earth’s land,severely disrupting natural water systems.This degradation diminishes the planet’s capacity to regulate temperature through water vapor,cloud formation,and the hydrological cycle,further accelerating climate instability.
基金The authors would also like to acknowledge the support and contribution of COST Action TD1202‘Mapping and the Citizen Sensor’as well as COST Action IC1203‘European Network Exploring Research into Geospatial Information Crowdsourcing’(ENERGIC).
文摘Global land cover(LC)maps have been widely employed as the base layer for a number of applications including climate change,food security,water quality,biodiversity,change detection,and environmental planning.Due to the importance of LC,there is a pressing need to increase the temporal and spatial resolution of global LC maps.A recent advance in this direction has been the GlobeLand30 dataset derived from Landsat imagery,which has been developed by the National Geomatics Center of China(NGCC).Although overall accuracy is greater than 80%,the NGCC would like help in assessing the accuracy of the product in different regions of the world.To assist in this process,this study compares the GlobeLand30 product with existing public and online datasets,that is,CORINE,Urban Atlas(UA),OpenStreetMap,and ATKIS for Germany in order to assess overall and per class agreement.The results of the analysis reveal high agreement of up to 92%between these datasets and GlobeLand30 but that large disagreements for certain classes are evident,in particular wetlands.However,overall,GlobeLand30 is shown to be a useful product for characterizing LC in Germany,and paves the way for further regional and national validation efforts.
文摘Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management.The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.
文摘Systemic risk research is gaining traction across diverse disciplinary research communities, but has as yet not been strongly linked to traditional, well-established risk analysis research. This is due in part to the fact that systemic risk research focuses on the connection of elements within a system, while risk analysis research focuses more on individual risk to single elements. We therefore investigate how current systemic risk research can be related to traditional risk analysis approaches from a conceptual as well as an empirical point of view. Based on Sklar's Theorem, which provides a one-to-one relationship between multivariate distributions and copulas, we suggest a reframing of the concept of copulas based on a network perspective. This provides a promising way forward for integrating individual risk(in the form of probability distributions) and systemic risk(in the form of copulasdescribing the dependencies among such distributions)across research domains. Copulas can link continuous node states, characterizing individual risks, with a gradual dependency of the coupling strength between nodes on their states, characterizing systemic risk. When copulas are used for describing such refined coupling between nodes,they can provide a more accurate quantification of a system's network structure. This enables more realistic systemic risk assessments, and is especially useful when extreme events(that occur at low probabilities, but have high impacts) affect a system's nodes. In this way, copulas can be informative in measuring and quantifying changes in systemic risk and therefore be helpful in its management. We discuss the advantages and limitations of copulas for integrative risk analyses from the perspectives of modeling, measurement, and management.
基金supported by the European Space Agency’s Navigation Science Office through the NAVISP Element 1 Program in the CAMALIOT(Application of Machine Learning Technology for GNSS IoT Data Fusion)project(NAVISP-EL1-038.2).
文摘Raw observations(carrier-phase and code observations)from the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)can now be accessed from Android mobile phones(Version 7.0 onwards).This paves the way for GNSS data to be utilized for low-cost precise positioning or in ionospheric or tropospheric applications.This paper presents results from data collection campaigns using the CAMALIOT mobile app.In the frst campaign,116.3 billion measurements from 11,828 mobile devices were collected from all continents.Although participation decreased during the second campaign,data are still being collected globally.In this contribution,we demonstrate the potential of volunteered geographic information(VGl)from mobile phones to fill data gaps in geodetic station networks that collect GNSS data,e.g.in Brazil,but also how the data can provide a denser set of observations than current networks in countries across Europe.We also show that mobile phones capable of dual-frequency reception,which is an emerging technology that can provide a richer source of GNSS data,are contributing in a substantial way.Finally,we present the results from a survey of participants to indicate that participation is diverse in terms of backgrounds and geography,where the dominant motivation for participation is to contribute to scientific research.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41671113,No.51761135024,No.41601049,No.41475040China’s National Science&Technology Pillar Program,No.2016YFC0502702
文摘Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change.The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China.Therefore,a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security.In this study,based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways(RCPs) in 2011–2040(2020 s),2041–2070(2050 s) and 2071–2100(2080 s),we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020 s,2050 s,and 2080 s,respectively.The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin.Our simulations revealed that:(1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time;(2) in the middle of this century(2050 s),total rapeseed production would increase significantly;(3) the average production potential increase in the 2050 s for the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939,1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively;(4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi,central and eastern Hubei,northern Hunan,central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.
基金Funding from the global Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance
文摘Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.
