The age-accumulation effect of 40Ar in hydrocarbon source rocks was discussed in accordance with the decay law of radioactive elements. In terms of the mean values of 40Ar/36Ar, the old Sinian gas reservoirs (mean val...The age-accumulation effect of 40Ar in hydrocarbon source rocks was discussed in accordance with the decay law of radioactive elements. In terms of the mean values of 40Ar/36Ar, the old Sinian gas reservoirs (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 7009) were definitely distinguished from the Permian gas reservoirs (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 1017) in Weiyuan, Sichuan Province, and the gas source of the Permian gas reservoir (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 5222) in well Wei-7 with the Weiyuan structure is defined as the Sinian system. Based on the values of 40Ar/36Ar, the coal-type gases (The source rocks are of the C-P system; mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 1125) are definitely distinguished from the oil-type gases (The source rocks are of the Tertiary system; mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 590) in the Tertiary reservoirs of the Zhongyuan Oilfield. Besides, 40Ar/36Ar values also have a positive effect on the oil-source correlation of oil reservoirs in ancient hidden mountains. According to the crust-mantle interchange information reflected by 3He/4He values, petroliferous provinces in China can be divided into three major tectonic regions. (1) The eastern active region: The crust-mantle volatile matter exchanges actively, and the 3He/4He values are mainly around 10-6, partly around 10-7. (2) The central stable region: The 3He/4He values are all around 10-8. (3) The western sub-stable region: The 3He/4He values are mainly around 10-8, and around 10-7 on the edges of the basins. Helium contents of some gas wells in China’s eastern petroliferous region reach the industrial abundance (He≈0.05%–0.1%), the 3He/4He values reach 10-6, and the equivalent values for the mantle-source components in helium gas can reach 30%–50%. As viewed from this, a new type of crust-mantle composite helium resources has been proposed. Geneses of some CO2 gas reservoirs in the east of China and some issues concerning mantle-source methane were discussed in the light of the helium and carbon isotopes of CO2 and CH4 in natural gases. In the discussion on helium isotopic characteristics of inclusions in the reservoirs, it was discovered that the 3He/4He values are close to those in natural gases. That is to say, this phenomenon is related to regional tectonism. The 3He/4He, CO2/3He and CH4/3He data were used to discuss the tectonic activities of fault zones in a certain number of regions in China.展开更多
The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environ- ment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree specie...The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environ- ment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indi- cated that radial growth ofP tabulaeJbrmis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that ofP crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth ofP crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April-May （r =0.641, p 〈0.01）, and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April-May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923-2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s-1930s, the 1960s-1970s, and the early 21 st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.展开更多
The circum-lake zone of the Qinghai Lake is one of the most serious regions of desertification on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Based on Remote Sensing （RS） and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the...The circum-lake zone of the Qinghai Lake is one of the most serious regions of desertification on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Based on Remote Sensing （RS） and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the four sets of remote sensing images acquired in 1976, 1987, 1995, and 2006 were selected to conduct thematic information extraction in 14,300 km2 of land in the circum-lake zone using the Earth Resource Data Analysis System （ERDAS） image and information processing function. In the meantime the off-site interpretation and filed check-correction methods were used to recon- struct the temporal-spatial dynamic changes and differentiation patterns of land desertification in the circum-lake zone in the past 30 years, and based on this, the developmental trend of land desertification in the next 20 years was predicted. The results of the study show that in the past 30 years land desertification in the region experienced a continuous fluctuation between rapid- and slow-development processes in time, while in space it exhibited a few small patchy distributions or sporadic distributions in many places while at the same time, four large sand-dominated distributions stood out and evolved into a circum-lake belt differentiation pattern with a lakeside dike as the connecting line. Due to the integrated effects of climate changes, human activities and artificial rehabilitation, land desertification area in the region in the next 20 years will exhibit an increasing trend in the first 15 years and then increase at a slower rate, and afterward occur in a reverse, decreasing trend.展开更多
Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake.Based on GIS and RS,GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of deserti...Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake.Based on GIS and RS,GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of desertification in each county around Qinghai Lake in four phases of1976,1987,1995 and 2006.Using the function of intersect and overlay supported by ARCGIS,with analyzing attributes of vector RS images,we obtained transition data and established transfer matrix of land-use types in recent 30 years,besides,protracted land-use transition maps of all desertification classes.In further,we analyzed transition quantity and direction of desertification in each county,moreover,reconstructed the process of spatial-temporal evolution of desertification.The results are showed below:(1)it's the transition between desertified land and others but not in the desertified that played the main role in Gangcha and Gonghe County,while the transfer between desertified lands were greater than that with other land-use types in Haiyan County.(2)Extremely severe desertified land mainly distributes in Ketu and Sand Islands that belongs to Haiyan County,and moderate desertified land in riversides of Gangcha County,also,the light desertification expanded too rapidly to become the most desertified land-use type in the surrounding of Qinghai Lake since 1976.(3)By using relative change rate of desertified land,the regional variability rank from top to toe was Gangcha,Haiyan and Gonghe.展开更多
The species richness of herb layer was investigated among 43 plots of forest vegetation in the eastern Zhongtiao Mountain, in southern Shanxi Province, China. The forest vegetation was divided into two major vegetatio...The species richness of herb layer was investigated among 43 plots of forest vegetation in the eastern Zhongtiao Mountain, in southern Shanxi Province, China. The forest vegetation was divided into two major vegetation types such as the deciduous forest and the coniferous forest by the two-way indicator species analysis （TWINSPAN）. The species richness of herb layer was fitted in the topographic and soil feature factors, as well as the topographic relative moisture index （TRMI） by the generalized linear models （GLM）. The results showed that canopy cover and altitude were the most significant environmental factors. Soil pH value and soil nutrients index such as total N, organic matter content had no significant influence. The effect of environment factors on species richness of herb layer had significant difference in vegetation types. For the broad-leaved forest, litter depth and TRMI were the important environment factors. For the coniferous forest, soil clay content was another important environment factor. The range of environmental gradient such as altitude may contribute to the difference.展开更多
Coal fire burning around the world is an environmental catastrophe characterized by the emission of noxious gases, particulate matter, and condensation by-products. In this study, coal fire temperature is retrieved ba...Coal fire burning around the world is an environmental catastrophe characterized by the emission of noxious gases, particulate matter, and condensation by-products. In this study, coal fire temperature is retrieved based on Landsat 5 TM images and Generalized Single-Channel Algorithm (GSCA), in Wuda coalfield, Inner Mongolia, China. Then coal fire zones are extracted by Jenks′ natural breaks and threshold methods based on temperature images. Changes of coal fire zones are analyzed from 1989 to 2008. The results are summarized as follows: 1) The coal fire temperature retrieval method based on Landsat 5 TM and the GSCA model is effective and feasible, because the temperature error is relatively small (from –2.9℃ to +2.6℃) between the measured temperature and the retrieved temperature. 2) The accuracy is relatively high to extract coal fire zones through the Jenks′ natural breaks and threshold methods, because 83.56% of surveyed area is located in the coal fire zones extracted in 2005. 3) The coal fire area increased 9.81 × 10 5 m 2 from 1989 to 2005, and the annual growth is about 6.1 × 10 4 m 2 , with an annual increasing rate of 2.48%. The area of coal fire decreased by 8.1 × 10 5 m 2 from 2005 to 2008.展开更多
This paper analysed the evolution of landslide research and research foci in different countries. The data comprise 3105 landslide SCI articles published between January 1977 and June 2015 from the Web of Science. The...This paper analysed the evolution of landslide research and research foci in different countries. The data comprise 3105 landslide SCI articles published between January 1977 and June 2015 from the Web of Science. The data are extracted under interaction constraints of the journal title, category, and keywords. The complex network method is used for the analysis. First, from the perspective of topics and methods, the evolution is systematically assessed by generating a co-citation network of the articles and a semantic cluster analysis. Second, from the perspective of topics and landsliderelated disasters, the focus in different countries is discussed by generating co-occurrence networks. These networks are the co-occurrence of the countries and keywords, and the co-occurrence of countries and landslide-related disaster phrases. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) landslide susceptibility analysis and methods of machine learning are popular research topics and methods, respectively. The topics change through time, and the article output is influenced by increasing landslide-related disasters, increasing economic losses and casualties, a desire for a more complete and accurate landslide inventory, and the use of effective methods, such as geographical information Science(GIS) and machine learning.(2) The research focus in each country is related with the country-specific disasters or economic costs caused by landslides to some degree. In addition to Italy and the USA, China is the country most commonly affected by landslides, and it should develop its own landslide database and complete in-depth studies of disaster mitigation.展开更多
Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors in the natural ecosystems.This paper focuses on the spatial distribution of long-term grassland fire patterns in the Hulun Buir Grassland located in the ...Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors in the natural ecosystems.This paper focuses on the spatial distribution of long-term grassland fire patterns in the Hulun Buir Grassland located in the northeast of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China.The density or ratio of ignition can reflect the relationship between grassland fire and different ignition factors.Based on the relationship between the density or ratio of ignition in different range of each ignition factor and grassland fire events,an ignition probability model was developed by using binary logistic regression function and its overall accuracy averaged up to 81.7%.Meanwhile it was found that daily relative humidity,daily temperature,elevation,vegetation type,distance to county-level road,distance to town are more important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions.Using Monte Carlo method,we developed a time-dependent stochastic ignition probability model based on the distribution of inter-annual daily relative humidity and daily temperature.Through this model,it is possible to estimate the spatial patterns of ignition probability for grassland fire,which will be helpful to the quantitative evaluation of grassland fire risk and its management in the future.展开更多
Earthquakes exhibit clear clustering on the earth. It is important to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of seismicity clusters and their spatial heterogeneity. We analyze effects of plate space, tectonic st...Earthquakes exhibit clear clustering on the earth. It is important to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of seismicity clusters and their spatial heterogeneity. We analyze effects of plate space, tectonic style, and their interaction on characteristic of cluster.Based on data of earthquakes not less than moment magnitude(M_w) 5.6 from 1960 to 2014, this study used the spatial-temporal scan method to identify earthquake clusters. The results indicate that seismic spatial-temporal clusters can be classified into two types based on duration: persistent clusters and burst clusters. Finally, we analysed the spatial heterogeneity of the two types. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Ninety percent of the persistent clusters last for 22-38 yr and show a high clustering likelihood;ninety percent of the burst clusters last for 1-1.78 yr and show a high relative risk. 2) The persistent clusters are mainly distributed in interplate zones, especially along the western margin of the Pacific Ocean. The burst clusters are distributed in both intraplate and interplate zones, slightly concentrated in the India-Eurasia interaction zone. 3) For the persistent type, plate interaction plays an important role in the distribution of the clusters’ likelihood and relative risk. In addition, the tectonic style further enhances the spatial heterogeneity. 4) For the burst type,neither plate activity nor tectonic style has an obvious effect on the distribution of the clusters’ likelihood and relative risk. Nevertheless,interaction between these two spatial factors enhances the spatial heterogeneity, especially in terms of relative risk.展开更多
Complex erosion by wind and water causes serious harm in arid and semi-arid regions. The interaction mechanisms between water erosion and wind erosion is the key to further our understanding of the complex erosion. Th...Complex erosion by wind and water causes serious harm in arid and semi-arid regions. The interaction mechanisms between water erosion and wind erosion is the key to further our understanding of the complex erosion. Therefore, in-depth understandings of the influences of water erosion on wind erosion is needed. This research used a wind tunnel and two rainfall simulators to investigate the influences of water erosion on succeeding wind erosion. The wind erosion measurements before and after water erosion were run on semi-fixed aeolian sandy soil configured with three slopes(5°, 10° and 15°), six wind speeds(0, 9, 11, 13, 15 and 20 m/s), and five rainfall intensities(0, 30, 45, 60 and 75 mm/h). Results showed that water erosion generally restrained the succeeding wind erosion. At a same slope, the restraining effects decreased as rainfall intensity increased, which decreased from 70.63% to 50.20% with rainfall intensity increased from 30 to 75 mm/h. Rills shaped by water erosion could weaken the restraining effects at wind speed exceeding 15 m/s mainly by cutting through the fine grain layer, exposing the sand layer prone to wind erosion to airflow. In addition, the restraining effects varied greatly among different soil types. The restraining effects of rainfall on the succeeding wind erosion depend on the formation of a coarsening layer with a crust and a compact fine grain layer after rainfall. The findings can deepen the understanding of the complex erosion and provide scientific basis for regional soil and water conservation in arid and semi-arid regions.展开更多
This paper presents a case study on structure design and establishment of database application system for alien species in Shandong Province, integrating with Geographic Information System, computer network, and datab...This paper presents a case study on structure design and establishment of database application system for alien species in Shandong Province, integrating with Geographic Information System, computer network, and database technology to the research of alien species. The modules of alien species database, including classified data input, statistics and analysis, species pictures and distribution maps, and out date input, were approached by Visual Studio.net 2003 and Microsoft SQL server 2000. The alien species information contains the information of classification, species distinction characteristics, biological characteristics, original area, distribution area, the entering fashion and route, invasion time, invasion reason, interaction with the endemic species, growth state, danger state and spatial information, i.e. distribution map. Based on the above bases, several models including application, checking, modifying, printing, adding and returning models were developed. Furthermore, through the establishment of index tables and index maps, we can also spatially query the data like picture, text and GIS map data. This research established the technological platform of sharing information about scientific resource of alien species in Shandong Province, offering the basis for the dynamic inquiry of alien species, the warning technology of prevention and the fast reaction system. The database application system possessed the principles of good practicability, friendly user interface and convenient usage. It can supply full and accurate information inquiry services of alien species for the users and provide functions of dynamically managing the database for the administrator.展开更多
Monitoring rock desert formation caused by two different origins(ice-snow melting and drying)through remote sensing is crucial to our understanding of the interaction between the underlying surface of different rock d...Monitoring rock desert formation caused by two different origins(ice-snow melting and drying)through remote sensing is crucial to our understanding of the interaction between the underlying surface of different rock desert and land-atmosphere types,as well as the relationship between bare land and soil erosion.A number of achievements have been made in remote sensing monitoring of desert areas,but there is a lack of accurate classification and remote sensing identification of rock desert types based on formation mechanism.In this study,the north and south sides of the eastern Kunlun Mountains in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China were taken as the study areas.Landsat operational landscape imager,digital elevation model,and precipitation and temperature grid data were used as data sources.By identifying the bare areas based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),we used the multi-element fusion method of contours,isotherms,and isohyets to identify the rock desert types in the ice-snow melting and dry areas.The results showed that:(1)the rock desert areas identified by remote sensing based on topographic and meteorological elements were highly accurate,with an overall accuracy of 88.45%and kappa coefficient of 0.77.The multi-element fusion method of contours,isotherms,and isohyets could effectively identify the rock desert types in the ice-snow melting and dry areas;(2)the optimal segmentation range of the ice-snow melting and dry areas was 3600 m contour,-2°C-2°C isotherms,and 100-130 mm isohyets.The areas with elevation less than 3600 m,annual average temperature higher than 2°C,and average annual precipitation less than 100 mm were rock desert in the dry areas.The range of-2°C-2°C isotherms and 100-130 mm isohyets was the transition area between the ice-snow melting and dry areas.The areas with elevation higher than 3600 m,annual average temperature less than-2°C,and average annual precipitation higher than 130 mm were rock desert in the ice-snow melting areas;and(3)the identification accuracy of the bare areas based on the NDVI method was better,specifically,the identification accuracy of plain bare areas was generally better than that of mountain bare areas.The remote sensing identification method considers not only the topographic factors that have great influence on the spatial distribution of the two types of rock desert areas,but also the meteorological factors,which can provide a scientific reference for the effective identification of the two types of rock desert areas.展开更多
The endangerment of aeolian sand is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems facing the southern suburb of Beijing. To control wind erosion is thus a matter of great urgency. This paper chooses typical land-...The endangerment of aeolian sand is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems facing the southern suburb of Beijing. To control wind erosion is thus a matter of great urgency. This paper chooses typical land-use types, i.e., cultivated land, wild grassland, drifting sandy land, etc. based on the fixed experimental observation and quantitative analysis, to conduct studies on the principles and characteristics of aeolian activities and measures controlling wind erosion in Daxing District of Beijing, The results show that： the near ground wind velocity yielded the logarithmic distribution with height; there are significant differences among different ground cover roughness; there are significant differences in the corresponding friction velocities caused by different properties of the underlying surface; there are differences in the threshold wind velocities speed in different land .use types; and there are minus exponential relations between the sediment discharge percentage and the height at a range of 0-20 cm air flow layer, Different land use types result in various degrees of coarse component. There is a significant exponential relation between sediment transport concentration and wind velocity.展开更多
Index series of Subtropical High over the western Pacific was extended to AD 1880 by using of statistical and modeling method. Reconstructed indices by both methods show good accordance each other. Association of the ...Index series of Subtropical High over the western Pacific was extended to AD 1880 by using of statistical and modeling method. Reconstructed indices by both methods show good accordance each other. Association of the indices to the rainfall patterns over eastern China indicated the robustness of the reconstructions.展开更多
Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province ar...Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.展开更多
The aim of this study was to investigate the release of inorganic and organic phosphorus species from particles in rivers and estuaries during resuspension events such as storm, wind and tidal induced turbulence. To a...The aim of this study was to investigate the release of inorganic and organic phosphorus species from particles in rivers and estuaries during resuspension events such as storm, wind and tidal induced turbulence. To achieve this aim, laboratory beaker experiments were designed with autoanalyzer 3 (AA3). The study first investigates phosphorus equilibration in ultra-pure water (UHP) water, biotic river water and abiotic river water under short term and long term conditions. Then, three typical organic and inorganic phosphorus compounds were selected (orthophosphate, phytic acid (PTA) and β-D-glucose-6-phosphate monosodium salt (G-6-P)) to simulate the effect of addition input to river and estuaries in the time period of 150 h. The results show that in a turbulent river, dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) will reach equilibrium between the particulate matter and the water column within 24 h. Additional input of DIP or DOP to the river, has different effects to the river nutrients balance. The buffering capacity of the suspended particulate matter (SPM) plays an important role and behavior difference to the inorganic and various organic phosphorus compounds.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze the correlation between tree-ring width of Picea crassifolia in the east of Qilian Mountains and the precipitation, temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)....[Objective] The aim was to analyze the correlation between tree-ring width of Picea crassifolia in the east of Qilian Mountains and the precipitation, temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). [Method] The correlation analysis and the regression analysis were used in this study. [Result] The tree-ring width was significantly correlated with the autumn precipitation and the spring average NDVI. The conversion equation between tree-ring width and spring NDVI (R2 = 48.5% , R2adj =46.2% , F =21.627, P <0.001) was developed and NDVI sequence was reconstructed during the period 1915 -2007. The drought in the 1920s was pronounced. Vegetation cover in the Qilian Mountains increased during the period 1922-1934, 1940-1957, 1965-1969, 1984-1988 and 1995-1997, but decreased during 1935 -1939, 1958 -1964, 1970 -1983, 1989 -1994 and 1998 -2005. [Conclusion] The reconstructed NDVI showed the drought evolution in the study area.展开更多
Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded si...Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.展开更多
In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The eff...In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz model.The results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external forcings.On this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable fields.The spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE method.This similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate prediction.In addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was proposed.The RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability limit.For instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.Moreover,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.展开更多
Disaster information content is an objective mapping of disaster situations,social response,and public opinions.Social response to emergency is an important mechanism for implementing and guaranteeing emergency manage...Disaster information content is an objective mapping of disaster situations,social response,and public opinions.Social response to emergency is an important mechanism for implementing and guaranteeing emergency management of major natural hazard-related disasters.Understanding how disaster information content affects social response to emergencies is helpful for managing risk communication and efficient disaster response.Based on the 2008 freezing-rain and snowstorm disasters in southern China,this study used Python to extract 7,857 case-related media reports and applied natural language processing for text analysis.It used three typical cases to identify and analyze disaster media report content and the relationship between these reports and the social response to the emergency.Eight categories of disaster response-such as prewarning and forecasting,announcements by the authorities,and social mobilization-appeared in the disaster information in the media,along with disaster impact information,that is,real-time disaster status.Disaster response information and an appropriate amount of disaster impact information played important roles in prewarning,disaster relief,public opinion guidance,and social stability maintenance and can serve important functions in communicating with all stakeholders of emergency management,assisting or influencing emergency departments or individuals in decision making,and eliminating "information islands." Empathy caused the general public to become "disaster responders" through receiving information.Rumors and an excess of negative information may have a perverse amplification effect on public opinion and increase the unpredictability of the disaster situation and the risk of social crisis.展开更多
基金supported by the Chinese Natural Science Foundation Project (40673018)
文摘The age-accumulation effect of 40Ar in hydrocarbon source rocks was discussed in accordance with the decay law of radioactive elements. In terms of the mean values of 40Ar/36Ar, the old Sinian gas reservoirs (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 7009) were definitely distinguished from the Permian gas reservoirs (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 1017) in Weiyuan, Sichuan Province, and the gas source of the Permian gas reservoir (mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 5222) in well Wei-7 with the Weiyuan structure is defined as the Sinian system. Based on the values of 40Ar/36Ar, the coal-type gases (The source rocks are of the C-P system; mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 1125) are definitely distinguished from the oil-type gases (The source rocks are of the Tertiary system; mean values of 40Ar/36Ar: 590) in the Tertiary reservoirs of the Zhongyuan Oilfield. Besides, 40Ar/36Ar values also have a positive effect on the oil-source correlation of oil reservoirs in ancient hidden mountains. According to the crust-mantle interchange information reflected by 3He/4He values, petroliferous provinces in China can be divided into three major tectonic regions. (1) The eastern active region: The crust-mantle volatile matter exchanges actively, and the 3He/4He values are mainly around 10-6, partly around 10-7. (2) The central stable region: The 3He/4He values are all around 10-8. (3) The western sub-stable region: The 3He/4He values are mainly around 10-8, and around 10-7 on the edges of the basins. Helium contents of some gas wells in China’s eastern petroliferous region reach the industrial abundance (He≈0.05%–0.1%), the 3He/4He values reach 10-6, and the equivalent values for the mantle-source components in helium gas can reach 30%–50%. As viewed from this, a new type of crust-mantle composite helium resources has been proposed. Geneses of some CO2 gas reservoirs in the east of China and some issues concerning mantle-source methane were discussed in the light of the helium and carbon isotopes of CO2 and CH4 in natural gases. In the discussion on helium isotopic characteristics of inclusions in the reservoirs, it was discovered that the 3He/4He values are close to those in natural gases. That is to say, this phenomenon is related to regional tectonism. The 3He/4He, CO2/3He and CH4/3He data were used to discuss the tectonic activities of fault zones in a certain number of regions in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41171159)the Key Program of the Hebei Education Department(No.ZH2012035)
文摘The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environ- ment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indi- cated that radial growth ofP tabulaeJbrmis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that ofP crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth ofP crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April-May （r =0.641, p 〈0.01）, and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April-May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923-2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s-1930s, the 1960s-1970s, and the early 21 st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundations of China (Grant Nos. 40761026 and 41161036)the grant of the Outstanding Youth Foundation Project Program of the Northwest Normal University (No. NWNU-LKON-10-34)
文摘The circum-lake zone of the Qinghai Lake is one of the most serious regions of desertification on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Based on Remote Sensing （RS） and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the four sets of remote sensing images acquired in 1976, 1987, 1995, and 2006 were selected to conduct thematic information extraction in 14,300 km2 of land in the circum-lake zone using the Earth Resource Data Analysis System （ERDAS） image and information processing function. In the meantime the off-site interpretation and filed check-correction methods were used to recon- struct the temporal-spatial dynamic changes and differentiation patterns of land desertification in the circum-lake zone in the past 30 years, and based on this, the developmental trend of land desertification in the next 20 years was predicted. The results of the study show that in the past 30 years land desertification in the region experienced a continuous fluctuation between rapid- and slow-development processes in time, while in space it exhibited a few small patchy distributions or sporadic distributions in many places while at the same time, four large sand-dominated distributions stood out and evolved into a circum-lake belt differentiation pattern with a lakeside dike as the connecting line. Due to the integrated effects of climate changes, human activities and artificial rehabilitation, land desertification area in the region in the next 20 years will exhibit an increasing trend in the first 15 years and then increase at a slower rate, and afterward occur in a reverse, decreasing trend.
基金National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2007BAC30B03)"The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities"and"Forestry Industry Research Special Funds for Public Welfare"(201004025)
文摘Desertification is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems around Qinghai Lake.Based on GIS and RS,GIS analysis was used to obtain the information of spatial-temporal change and different pattern of desertification in each county around Qinghai Lake in four phases of1976,1987,1995 and 2006.Using the function of intersect and overlay supported by ARCGIS,with analyzing attributes of vector RS images,we obtained transition data and established transfer matrix of land-use types in recent 30 years,besides,protracted land-use transition maps of all desertification classes.In further,we analyzed transition quantity and direction of desertification in each county,moreover,reconstructed the process of spatial-temporal evolution of desertification.The results are showed below:(1)it's the transition between desertified land and others but not in the desertified that played the main role in Gangcha and Gonghe County,while the transfer between desertified lands were greater than that with other land-use types in Haiyan County.(2)Extremely severe desertified land mainly distributes in Ketu and Sand Islands that belongs to Haiyan County,and moderate desertified land in riversides of Gangcha County,also,the light desertification expanded too rapidly to become the most desertified land-use type in the surrounding of Qinghai Lake since 1976.(3)By using relative change rate of desertified land,the regional variability rank from top to toe was Gangcha,Haiyan and Gonghe.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 40271047）.
文摘The species richness of herb layer was investigated among 43 plots of forest vegetation in the eastern Zhongtiao Mountain, in southern Shanxi Province, China. The forest vegetation was divided into two major vegetation types such as the deciduous forest and the coniferous forest by the two-way indicator species analysis （TWINSPAN）. The species richness of herb layer was fitted in the topographic and soil feature factors, as well as the topographic relative moisture index （TRMI） by the generalized linear models （GLM）. The results showed that canopy cover and altitude were the most significant environmental factors. Soil pH value and soil nutrients index such as total N, organic matter content had no significant influence. The effect of environment factors on species richness of herb layer had significant difference in vegetation types. For the broad-leaved forest, litter depth and TRMI were the important environment factors. For the coniferous forest, soil clay content was another important environment factor. The range of environmental gradient such as altitude may contribute to the difference.
基金Under the auspices of International Program for Cooperation in Science and Technology (No. 2007DFA20640)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2009AA12Z146, 2009AA12Z124)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40701172)
文摘Coal fire burning around the world is an environmental catastrophe characterized by the emission of noxious gases, particulate matter, and condensation by-products. In this study, coal fire temperature is retrieved based on Landsat 5 TM images and Generalized Single-Channel Algorithm (GSCA), in Wuda coalfield, Inner Mongolia, China. Then coal fire zones are extracted by Jenks′ natural breaks and threshold methods based on temperature images. Changes of coal fire zones are analyzed from 1989 to 2008. The results are summarized as follows: 1) The coal fire temperature retrieval method based on Landsat 5 TM and the GSCA model is effective and feasible, because the temperature error is relatively small (from –2.9℃ to +2.6℃) between the measured temperature and the retrieved temperature. 2) The accuracy is relatively high to extract coal fire zones through the Jenks′ natural breaks and threshold methods, because 83.56% of surveyed area is located in the coal fire zones extracted in 2005. 3) The coal fire area increased 9.81 × 10 5 m 2 from 1989 to 2005, and the annual growth is about 6.1 × 10 4 m 2 , with an annual increasing rate of 2.48%. The area of coal fire decreased by 8.1 × 10 5 m 2 from 2005 to 2008.
基金under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Plan of China (Grant No. 2017YFB0504102)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘This paper analysed the evolution of landslide research and research foci in different countries. The data comprise 3105 landslide SCI articles published between January 1977 and June 2015 from the Web of Science. The data are extracted under interaction constraints of the journal title, category, and keywords. The complex network method is used for the analysis. First, from the perspective of topics and methods, the evolution is systematically assessed by generating a co-citation network of the articles and a semantic cluster analysis. Second, from the perspective of topics and landsliderelated disasters, the focus in different countries is discussed by generating co-occurrence networks. These networks are the co-occurrence of the countries and keywords, and the co-occurrence of countries and landslide-related disaster phrases. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) landslide susceptibility analysis and methods of machine learning are popular research topics and methods, respectively. The topics change through time, and the article output is influenced by increasing landslide-related disasters, increasing economic losses and casualties, a desire for a more complete and accurate landslide inventory, and the use of effective methods, such as geographical information Science(GIS) and machine learning.(2) The research focus in each country is related with the country-specific disasters or economic costs caused by landslides to some degree. In addition to Italy and the USA, China is the country most commonly affected by landslides, and it should develop its own landslide database and complete in-depth studies of disaster mitigation.
基金Under the auspices of National Science & Technology Support Program of China(No.2006BAD20B00)
文摘Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors in the natural ecosystems.This paper focuses on the spatial distribution of long-term grassland fire patterns in the Hulun Buir Grassland located in the northeast of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China.The density or ratio of ignition can reflect the relationship between grassland fire and different ignition factors.Based on the relationship between the density or ratio of ignition in different range of each ignition factor and grassland fire events,an ignition probability model was developed by using binary logistic regression function and its overall accuracy averaged up to 81.7%.Meanwhile it was found that daily relative humidity,daily temperature,elevation,vegetation type,distance to county-level road,distance to town are more important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions.Using Monte Carlo method,we developed a time-dependent stochastic ignition probability model based on the distribution of inter-annual daily relative humidity and daily temperature.Through this model,it is possible to estimate the spatial patterns of ignition probability for grassland fire,which will be helpful to the quantitative evaluation of grassland fire risk and its management in the future.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771537)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Earthquakes exhibit clear clustering on the earth. It is important to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of seismicity clusters and their spatial heterogeneity. We analyze effects of plate space, tectonic style, and their interaction on characteristic of cluster.Based on data of earthquakes not less than moment magnitude(M_w) 5.6 from 1960 to 2014, this study used the spatial-temporal scan method to identify earthquake clusters. The results indicate that seismic spatial-temporal clusters can be classified into two types based on duration: persistent clusters and burst clusters. Finally, we analysed the spatial heterogeneity of the two types. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Ninety percent of the persistent clusters last for 22-38 yr and show a high clustering likelihood;ninety percent of the burst clusters last for 1-1.78 yr and show a high relative risk. 2) The persistent clusters are mainly distributed in interplate zones, especially along the western margin of the Pacific Ocean. The burst clusters are distributed in both intraplate and interplate zones, slightly concentrated in the India-Eurasia interaction zone. 3) For the persistent type, plate interaction plays an important role in the distribution of the clusters’ likelihood and relative risk. In addition, the tectonic style further enhances the spatial heterogeneity. 4) For the burst type,neither plate activity nor tectonic style has an obvious effect on the distribution of the clusters’ likelihood and relative risk. Nevertheless,interaction between these two spatial factors enhances the spatial heterogeneity, especially in terms of relative risk.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271286)the Innovative Research Group Project of the National Natural Science Foundation (41621061)
文摘Complex erosion by wind and water causes serious harm in arid and semi-arid regions. The interaction mechanisms between water erosion and wind erosion is the key to further our understanding of the complex erosion. Therefore, in-depth understandings of the influences of water erosion on wind erosion is needed. This research used a wind tunnel and two rainfall simulators to investigate the influences of water erosion on succeeding wind erosion. The wind erosion measurements before and after water erosion were run on semi-fixed aeolian sandy soil configured with three slopes(5°, 10° and 15°), six wind speeds(0, 9, 11, 13, 15 and 20 m/s), and five rainfall intensities(0, 30, 45, 60 and 75 mm/h). Results showed that water erosion generally restrained the succeeding wind erosion. At a same slope, the restraining effects decreased as rainfall intensity increased, which decreased from 70.63% to 50.20% with rainfall intensity increased from 30 to 75 mm/h. Rills shaped by water erosion could weaken the restraining effects at wind speed exceeding 15 m/s mainly by cutting through the fine grain layer, exposing the sand layer prone to wind erosion to airflow. In addition, the restraining effects varied greatly among different soil types. The restraining effects of rainfall on the succeeding wind erosion depend on the formation of a coarsening layer with a crust and a compact fine grain layer after rainfall. The findings can deepen the understanding of the complex erosion and provide scientific basis for regional soil and water conservation in arid and semi-arid regions.
基金this study was supported by the Key Project of Natu-ral Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No. Z2003D05)Key Project of Environmental Protection Science of Shandong Province(No. 2004057)Outstanding Young Scientists Grants of Shandong Province(No.2005BS08010),China
文摘This paper presents a case study on structure design and establishment of database application system for alien species in Shandong Province, integrating with Geographic Information System, computer network, and database technology to the research of alien species. The modules of alien species database, including classified data input, statistics and analysis, species pictures and distribution maps, and out date input, were approached by Visual Studio.net 2003 and Microsoft SQL server 2000. The alien species information contains the information of classification, species distinction characteristics, biological characteristics, original area, distribution area, the entering fashion and route, invasion time, invasion reason, interaction with the endemic species, growth state, danger state and spatial information, i.e. distribution map. Based on the above bases, several models including application, checking, modifying, printing, adding and returning models were developed. Furthermore, through the establishment of index tables and index maps, we can also spatially query the data like picture, text and GIS map data. This research established the technological platform of sharing information about scientific resource of alien species in Shandong Province, offering the basis for the dynamic inquiry of alien species, the warning technology of prevention and the fast reaction system. The database application system possessed the principles of good practicability, friendly user interface and convenient usage. It can supply full and accurate information inquiry services of alien species for the users and provide functions of dynamically managing the database for the administrator.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province of China(2021-ZJ-905)the Second Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of China(2019QZKK0606).
文摘Monitoring rock desert formation caused by two different origins(ice-snow melting and drying)through remote sensing is crucial to our understanding of the interaction between the underlying surface of different rock desert and land-atmosphere types,as well as the relationship between bare land and soil erosion.A number of achievements have been made in remote sensing monitoring of desert areas,but there is a lack of accurate classification and remote sensing identification of rock desert types based on formation mechanism.In this study,the north and south sides of the eastern Kunlun Mountains in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China were taken as the study areas.Landsat operational landscape imager,digital elevation model,and precipitation and temperature grid data were used as data sources.By identifying the bare areas based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),we used the multi-element fusion method of contours,isotherms,and isohyets to identify the rock desert types in the ice-snow melting and dry areas.The results showed that:(1)the rock desert areas identified by remote sensing based on topographic and meteorological elements were highly accurate,with an overall accuracy of 88.45%and kappa coefficient of 0.77.The multi-element fusion method of contours,isotherms,and isohyets could effectively identify the rock desert types in the ice-snow melting and dry areas;(2)the optimal segmentation range of the ice-snow melting and dry areas was 3600 m contour,-2°C-2°C isotherms,and 100-130 mm isohyets.The areas with elevation less than 3600 m,annual average temperature higher than 2°C,and average annual precipitation less than 100 mm were rock desert in the dry areas.The range of-2°C-2°C isotherms and 100-130 mm isohyets was the transition area between the ice-snow melting and dry areas.The areas with elevation higher than 3600 m,annual average temperature less than-2°C,and average annual precipitation higher than 130 mm were rock desert in the ice-snow melting areas;and(3)the identification accuracy of the bare areas based on the NDVI method was better,specifically,the identification accuracy of plain bare areas was generally better than that of mountain bare areas.The remote sensing identification method considers not only the topographic factors that have great influence on the spatial distribution of the two types of rock desert areas,but also the meteorological factors,which can provide a scientific reference for the effective identification of the two types of rock desert areas.
基金The national "Tenth-Five Year Plan" Key Program of Science and Technology, No.2002BA517A14 Beijing Sand Desertification and Wind Sand Countermeasure Demonstration Area Project, No.H020720110330 Key Project of Natural Science Foundation of Beijing, No.8011003
文摘The endangerment of aeolian sand is one of the most serious eco-environmental problems facing the southern suburb of Beijing. To control wind erosion is thus a matter of great urgency. This paper chooses typical land-use types, i.e., cultivated land, wild grassland, drifting sandy land, etc. based on the fixed experimental observation and quantitative analysis, to conduct studies on the principles and characteristics of aeolian activities and measures controlling wind erosion in Daxing District of Beijing, The results show that： the near ground wind velocity yielded the logarithmic distribution with height; there are significant differences among different ground cover roughness; there are significant differences in the corresponding friction velocities caused by different properties of the underlying surface; there are differences in the threshold wind velocities speed in different land .use types; and there are minus exponential relations between the sediment discharge percentage and the height at a range of 0-20 cm air flow layer, Different land use types result in various degrees of coarse component. There is a significant exponential relation between sediment transport concentration and wind velocity.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G1998040900-Part-1).
文摘Index series of Subtropical High over the western Pacific was extended to AD 1880 by using of statistical and modeling method. Reconstructed indices by both methods show good accordance each other. Association of the indices to the rainfall patterns over eastern China indicated the robustness of the reconstructions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40301003), the Open Project Program of Key Laboratory of Re-sources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture.
文摘Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.
文摘The aim of this study was to investigate the release of inorganic and organic phosphorus species from particles in rivers and estuaries during resuspension events such as storm, wind and tidal induced turbulence. To achieve this aim, laboratory beaker experiments were designed with autoanalyzer 3 (AA3). The study first investigates phosphorus equilibration in ultra-pure water (UHP) water, biotic river water and abiotic river water under short term and long term conditions. Then, three typical organic and inorganic phosphorus compounds were selected (orthophosphate, phytic acid (PTA) and β-D-glucose-6-phosphate monosodium salt (G-6-P)) to simulate the effect of addition input to river and estuaries in the time period of 150 h. The results show that in a turbulent river, dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) will reach equilibrium between the particulate matter and the water column within 24 h. Additional input of DIP or DOP to the river, has different effects to the river nutrients balance. The buffering capacity of the suspended particulate matter (SPM) plays an important role and behavior difference to the inorganic and various organic phosphorus compounds.
基金Supported by the NSFC(41071128 and 40801004)the Key Program of Hebei Education Department(ZH2012035)
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze the correlation between tree-ring width of Picea crassifolia in the east of Qilian Mountains and the precipitation, temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). [Method] The correlation analysis and the regression analysis were used in this study. [Result] The tree-ring width was significantly correlated with the autumn precipitation and the spring average NDVI. The conversion equation between tree-ring width and spring NDVI (R2 = 48.5% , R2adj =46.2% , F =21.627, P <0.001) was developed and NDVI sequence was reconstructed during the period 1915 -2007. The drought in the 1920s was pronounced. Vegetation cover in the Qilian Mountains increased during the period 1922-1934, 1940-1957, 1965-1969, 1984-1988 and 1995-1997, but decreased during 1935 -1939, 1958 -1964, 1970 -1983, 1989 -1994 and 1998 -2005. [Conclusion] The reconstructed NDVI showed the drought evolution in the study area.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801703)the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(Grant No.2022-GS-01)in China.
文摘Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42225501 and 42105059)the National Key Scientific and Tech-nological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simula-tion Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)method.The effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz model.The results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external forcings.On this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable fields.The spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE method.This similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate prediction.In addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was proposed.The RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability limit.For instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.Moreover,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.
基金supported by the Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China (Grant No. 22&ZD223)Tianchi Doctoral Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Grant No. BS2021007)the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Grant No. 2022D01B109)
文摘Disaster information content is an objective mapping of disaster situations,social response,and public opinions.Social response to emergency is an important mechanism for implementing and guaranteeing emergency management of major natural hazard-related disasters.Understanding how disaster information content affects social response to emergencies is helpful for managing risk communication and efficient disaster response.Based on the 2008 freezing-rain and snowstorm disasters in southern China,this study used Python to extract 7,857 case-related media reports and applied natural language processing for text analysis.It used three typical cases to identify and analyze disaster media report content and the relationship between these reports and the social response to the emergency.Eight categories of disaster response-such as prewarning and forecasting,announcements by the authorities,and social mobilization-appeared in the disaster information in the media,along with disaster impact information,that is,real-time disaster status.Disaster response information and an appropriate amount of disaster impact information played important roles in prewarning,disaster relief,public opinion guidance,and social stability maintenance and can serve important functions in communicating with all stakeholders of emergency management,assisting or influencing emergency departments or individuals in decision making,and eliminating "information islands." Empathy caused the general public to become "disaster responders" through receiving information.Rumors and an excess of negative information may have a perverse amplification effect on public opinion and increase the unpredictability of the disaster situation and the risk of social crisis.
